Let be the local water-film thickness. To first order in the interface amplitudes,The lubrication theory flux down the vertical surface, with a no-slip boundary condition at the ice and a stress-free boundary condition at the water-air interface, isFor the unperturbed film , so
The linearized Young–Laplace equation gives the capillary-pressure perturbationBecause the prescribed volume flux is uniform, its first-order perturbation must vanish. Linearization of the flux law givesThus, with ,and henceThe complex amplitude ratio records the phase shift caused by surface tension in the long-wave approximation.
The unperturbed temperature is linear in each material. Continuity of the conductive heat flux at givesOn definingthis becomes . Therefore
Let be the ice mass density and its latent heat of fusion per unit mass. The ice is isothermal in this model, so the Stefan condition equates latent-heat production to the heat flux conducted through the water:Consequently the unperturbed lateral solidification speed isThe material parameters are the thermal conductivities , ice density , and specific latent heat ; the geometric thermal length is .
Under the quasi-stationary approximation, and with advective heat transport neglected, each temperature perturbation satisfies the Laplace equation. The decaying normal-mode solutions areKeeping the displaced ice interface at omits the curvature correction described by the Gibbs--Thomson relation.
The fixed melting temperature at the displaced ice interface givesExpanding temperature and conductive heat flux continuity at the displaced outer interface gives
The fixed melting temperature at the displaced ice interface givesExpanding temperature and conductive heat flux continuity at the displaced outer interface gives
Put . Since , the temperature condition in the limits and givesAlthough is small, the product is therefore order one and cannot be discarded. The flux condition then givesThis is why the stated asymptotic warning matters.
The perturbed Stefan condition at isUsing and yieldsSubstitution of the interface-amplitude ratio from part i produces the thin-film icicle-ripple instability dispersion relation
Set . Rationalizing this complex number givesso its growth rate and imaginary part areDifferentiating the growth rate with respect to the wavenumber shows that its positive stationary point satisfiesIt is the unique global maximum, and henceAt this wavenumber . With the convention , a constant phase travels with phase velocityThereforeBecause increases downward, the negative sign means that the icicle ripples migrate upward with speed .
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