Let be the local water-film thickness. To first order in the interface amplitudes,
The lubrication theory flux down the vertical surface, with a no-slip boundary condition at the ice and a stress-free boundary condition at the water-air interface, is
For the unperturbed film , so
The linearized Young–Laplace equation gives the capillary-pressure perturbation
Because the prescribed volume flux is uniform, its first-order perturbation must vanish. Linearization of the flux law gives
Thus, with ,
and hence
The complex amplitude ratio records the phase shift caused by surface tension in the long-wave approximation.
The unperturbed temperature is linear in each material. Continuity of the conductive heat flux at gives
On defining
this becomes . Therefore
Let be the ice mass density and its latent heat of fusion per unit mass. The ice is isothermal in this model, so the Stefan condition equates latent-heat production to the heat flux conducted through the water:
Consequently the unperturbed lateral solidification speed is
The material parameters are the thermal conductivities , ice density , and specific latent heat ; the geometric thermal length is .
Write the base-state gradients as
The base heat flux and Stefan condition relations are
Under the quasi-stationary approximation, and with advective heat transport neglected, each temperature perturbation satisfies the Laplace equation. The decaying normal-mode solutions are
Keeping the displaced ice interface at omits the curvature correction described by the Gibbs--Thomson relation.
The fixed melting temperature at the displaced ice interface gives
Expanding temperature and conductive heat flux continuity at the displaced outer interface gives
Put . Since , the temperature condition in the limits and gives
Although is small, the product is therefore order one and cannot be discarded. The flux condition then gives
This is why the stated asymptotic warning matters.
The perturbed Stefan condition at is
Using and yields
Substitution of the interface-amplitude ratio from part i produces the thin-film icicle-ripple instability dispersion relation
Set . Rationalizing this complex number gives
so its growth rate and imaginary part are
Differentiating the growth rate with respect to the wavenumber shows that its positive stationary point satisfies
It is the unique global maximum, and hence
At this wavenumber . With the convention , a constant phase travels with phase velocity
Therefore
Because increases downward, the negative sign means that the icicle ripples migrate upward with speed .

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