Write the given pressure-dependent ratio of permeability of a porous medium to sponge thickness as
where is constant. The fluid pressure drop across the sponge is the hydrostatic pressure of the current,
because the air pressures above and below are equal. Therefore Darcy's law gives the downward volume flux per unit horizontal area as
Thus the sponge drainage obeys a power law in the current thickness, as described by pressure-dependent Darcy drainage.
Let measure height above the sponge. Under the long-wave approximation, hydrostatic pressure gives , and the horizontal balance for viscous fluid flow is
The no-slip boundary condition and stress-free boundary condition give
Integrating this lubrication theory profile gives the horizontal volume flux per unit span
Local mass conservation includes the downward loss found in part i:
Consequently the required nonlinear partial differential equation is
If the imposed inlet flux is and the moving front is , sufficient boundary conditions are
For a current released onto a dry substrate one also takes the initial condition away from the source. The front position is part of this moving-boundary problem.
Seek a similarity solution in the dimensionally completed form
where the fixed scales absorb , and . Its inlet volume flux scales as
so the prescribed source requires
The time derivative, horizontal lubrication theory term, and pressure-dependent Darcy drainage term scale respectively as
Equating the three exponents gives
Solving these linear equations together with the inlet condition yields the similarity exponents of a draining gravity current
Equivalently,
and, up to constant dimensional scales,
For , part iii gives , , and . Put
Substitution into the nonlinear partial differential equation gives the ordinary differential equation
with boundary conditions
To find the leading edge, set and suppose . The two singular terms in the ordinary differential equation have orders and . Their exponents agree only when . Their leading coefficients then satisfy
whereas and the constant drainage are lower-order terms. Hence
The draining gravity current therefore has a one-third-power leading edge and its flux vanishes there.
The density anomaly of water makes mass density increase with temperature up to and decrease above . Since temperature increases with depth in the stated layer, the density profile first increases to its maximum at the isotherm and then decreases toward the warm bottom.
The upper region has denser water below lighter water and hence stable density stratification. Below the density maximum, density decreases downward, so lighter water lies beneath denser water and gives unstable density stratification. The lower region therefore overturns by thermal convection, while the cold upper region remains a stagnant cap. This coexistence is penetrative convection.
Let be the thickness of the thermal boundary layer immediately below , let be the kinematic viscosity, let be the thermal diffusivity, and let be the critical local Rayleigh number. The density contrast driving the boundary layer follows from the density anomaly of water:
A Local Rayleigh-number closure sets
and therefore
By Fourier's law, the upward heat flux through this layer is
where is the water's thermal conductivity. This expression applies while the quantity inside braces is positive.
Set
so . Apart from material constants, the heat flux in part ii is
The derivative of its logarithm vanishes when
which gives the maximizing interface temperature
Substitution into the flux law gives
where
Thus the proportionality coefficient depends on the thermal conductivity, nonlinear thermal-expansion coefficient , kinematic viscosity, thermal diffusivity, gravity, and critical Rayleigh number. This is the maximum-flux law for penetrative convection in an ice-covered lake.
The stagnant layer transports heat by thermal conduction, so its upward heat flux is
At the maximum-flux interface from part iii,
Equating to gives
The stagnant layer has positive thickness only if
For an ice-covered freshwater lake, take and . The largest interior temperature compatible with this penetrative convection in an ice-covered lake model is therefore
Define the dimensionless stagnant-layer depth and time by
so is the thermal diffusion time. The maximizing interface temperature gives
Equating conductive and convective heat fluxes therefore gives the algebraic relation
Since , where is the specific heat capacity, the bulk heat balance in the convecting depth becomes
Retaining the heat capacity of the thin stagnant layer changes this only by relative order .
For and , the flux relation gives . The leading equation is consequently
Separating variables and using gives
hence
The approximation in part v requires the dimensionless stagnant depth
to remain small. Since makes the numerator order one, this condition is
Using the solution from part v, the equivalent time range is
or, at the level of asymptotic equivalence,
The cooling becomes appreciable on the shorter scale , so these ranges overlap widely when .
The Rayleigh number based on the convecting depth is
The definition of implicit in part iii gives
It follows that
If and , then . The thermal convection therefore remains strongly supercritical throughout the range in which the thin stagnant-layer approximation is valid.
Let be the local water-film thickness. To first order in the interface amplitudes,
The lubrication theory flux down the vertical surface, with a no-slip boundary condition at the ice and a stress-free boundary condition at the water-air interface, is
For the unperturbed film , so
The linearized Young–Laplace equation gives the capillary-pressure perturbation
Because the prescribed volume flux is uniform, its first-order perturbation must vanish. Linearization of the flux law gives
Thus, with ,
and hence
The complex amplitude ratio records the phase shift caused by surface tension in the long-wave approximation.
The unperturbed temperature is linear in each material. Continuity of the conductive heat flux at gives
On defining
this becomes . Therefore
Let be the ice mass density and its latent heat of fusion per unit mass. The ice is isothermal in this model, so the Stefan condition equates latent-heat production to the heat flux conducted through the water:
Consequently the unperturbed lateral solidification speed is
The material parameters are the thermal conductivities , ice density , and specific latent heat ; the geometric thermal length is .
Write the base-state gradients as
The base heat flux and Stefan condition relations are
Under the quasi-stationary approximation, and with advective heat transport neglected, each temperature perturbation satisfies the Laplace equation. The decaying normal-mode solutions are
Keeping the displaced ice interface at omits the curvature correction described by the Gibbs--Thomson relation.
The fixed melting temperature at the displaced ice interface gives
Expanding temperature and conductive heat flux continuity at the displaced outer interface gives
Put . Since , the temperature condition in the limits and gives
Although is small, the product is therefore order one and cannot be discarded. The flux condition then gives
This is why the stated asymptotic warning matters.
The perturbed Stefan condition at is
Using and yields
Substitution of the interface-amplitude ratio from part i produces the thin-film icicle-ripple instability dispersion relation
Set . Rationalizing this complex number gives
so its growth rate and imaginary part are
Differentiating the growth rate with respect to the wavenumber shows that its positive stationary point satisfies
It is the unique global maximum, and hence
At this wavenumber . With the convention , a constant phase travels with phase velocity
Therefore
Because increases downward, the negative sign means that the icicle ripples migrate upward with speed .

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