Past exam of the statistics course of the University of Oxford / 2014 / 1 / a

Write $I_1(\theta )$ for the Fisher information in one observation:Under the stipulated regularity assumptions, the maximum-likelihood estimator is consistent and has asymptotic normality:Equivalently, its large-sample normal approximation has mean $\theta$ and variance $1/[n{I}_1(\theta )]$. The information for the whole random sample is $n{I}_1(\theta )$; keeping the one-observation convention explicit prevents an extra factor of $n$.

Let $z={\Phi }^{-1}(1-\alpha /2)$, where $\Phi$ is the standard normal distribution's cumulative distribution function. Statistical consistency and Slutsky's theorem allow replacement of $I_1(\theta )$ by $I_1(\hat{\theta })$:Thus the probability that this standardized estimation error lies between $-z$ and $z$ tends to $1-\alpha$. Rearranging gives the Wald confidence intervalThe coverage probability is approximate, with limiting value $1-\alpha$; it is a repeated-sampling statement about the random confidence interval.

Here the exponential distribution is parametrized by its mean, so $f(x;\theta )={\theta }^{-1}{e}^{-x/\theta }$ for $x\ge 0$ and $\theta >0$. Its log-likelihood and maximum-likelihood estimate areFor one observation, ${\partial }_{\theta }\log f=-1/\theta +X/{\theta }^2$. Since $\mathrm{Var}(X)={\theta }^2$, its Fisher information is $I_1(\theta )=1/{\theta }^2$. Consequently the estimated standard error is $\overline{X}/\sqrt{n}$, givingThis is a large-sample confidence interval, not an exact one. If its lower endpoint is negative, intersecting with the parameter space $(0,\infty )$ removes impossible values without excluding any possible true statistical parameter.