Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2017 iii Paper 206 2 b Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-05
There are observations, since the intercept-only model has residual degrees of freedom. Adding price introduces one coefficient and decreases the binomial deviance by . Adding a three-level factor introduces two coefficients and decreases it by . Thus the missing entries areThe likelihood-ratio test comparing the smaller and full logistic regression tests against at least one nonzero layout contrast. Its statistic is . Under ordinary interior-parameter, full-rank and finite-estimate regularity conditions, Wilks theorem gives an asymptotic chi-squared distribution with two degrees of freedom. The reported p-value exceeds , so at that level retain the simpler price-only model.
The table is an analysis of deviance for nested generalized linear models: price is entered before layout. Thus its price row tests the price-only model against an intercept, whereas the layout row tests layout after allowing for price. The latter is the relevant comparison of model1 and model2. Failing to reject a layout effect is not proof that layouts have identical effects; it means these data do not justify the extra two parameters under this test.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2017 iii Paper 206 2 d Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-05
The quasibinomial regression retains the logit link and mean function but uses the working variance function . Its quasi-score equation isso multiplying by the common dispersion parameter does not change the coefficient estimates. Iteratively reweighted least squares therefore gives the same fitted means and coefficients as the binomial model. The usual Pearson dispersion estimator isThe estimated coefficient covariance matrix is , with . From the intercept standard errors, ; the rounded slope errors give approximately the same factor. The display uses approximate Student's t-tests with 118 residual degrees of freedom instead of fixed-dispersion normal tests.
For a genuinely individual binary response, the Bernoulli distribution identity forces . Thus is a working quasi-likelihood specification, not a different independent binary distribution with that mean. The mild estimated underdispersion does not establish an improved model, and the mean predictions are unchanged. In particular, a scalar rescaling does not model correlation among users, and usual likelihood-based Akaike information criterion comparisons are unavailable for a family without a specified probability likelihood. The output gives no convincing reason to prefer model3 to model2.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2018 iii Paper 218 4 c Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-05
Under a correctly specified Poisson regression with adequate expected counts, the residual Poisson deviance is approximately chi-squared distribution with residual degrees of freedom. The observed givesThus the ordinary Poisson model gives a very poor fit under this goodness-of-fit approximation. This is consistent with overdispersion, although a wrong mean model or dependence can also cause lack of fit; quasi-Poisson variance inflation alone does not establish that the mean model is adequate.
For Quasi-Poisson regression, . The Pearson dispersion estimator isIt uses squared Pearson residuals, not the residual deviance divided by 102. The fitted coefficients are unchanged, and their estimated covariance matrix is multiplied by . With , standard errors increase by , so the main treatment coefficient hasThe main Progabide coefficient is not significant at 5% after this dispersion adjustment. R uses a Student's t-distribution when dispersion is estimated, as described in its GLM summary documentation; the large-sample normal approximation also gives the same decision.
Because an interaction term is present, this tests the treatment contrast at baseline zero. An overall absence of treatment influence requires the joint null . The printed marginal standard errors do not give their covariance, so they are insufficient to calculate that joint Wald test, or the treatment contrast test at an arbitrary nonzero baseline.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2023 iii Paper 218 1 b Solution 2026-09-28
The researcher computed the Pearson chi-squared statisticand compared it with a distribution, using residual degrees of freedom. Under an adequate large-sample Poisson regression, should be roughly the residual degrees of freedom. The reported tail probability rounds numerically to zero and gives strong evidence of overdispersion.
Possible causes include unobserved heterogeneity or omitted covariates, dependence among respondents, excess zeros, or an incorrect mean function. The conclusion that the Poisson variance assumption fails is well supported, although this test alone does not identify the cause or establish that the Quasi-Poisson regression variance is correct.
Residual deviance 2026-10-06
The unscaled residual deviance of an exponential dispersion family compares its fitted mean with the saturated statistical model at a common dispersion parameter. Its normalization removes the factor in the log-likelihood. In Poisson regression and binomial regression, , so it is twice the saturated-minus-fitted log-likelihood. Under suitable regularity, has approximately a chi-squared distribution with the residual degrees of freedom; this is not an automatic accurate approximation for sparse responses. Nested deviance reductions with estimated dispersion lead to approximate F-tests after scaling by the dispersion estimate.
Residual estimate of Gaussian noise variance Created 2026-10-06 Updated 2026-10-14
For a correctly specified full-rank fixed-design Gaussian linear regression with , dividing the residual sum of squares by the residual degrees of freedom gives an unbiased estimator of the noise variance. The projection removes the whole deterministic mean, so the numerator's expectation is . A misspecified subset model need not have this property.
A two-way analysis of variance with the full interaction and one observation in each observed factor cell has one independently varying fitted cell mean per observation. A cell-indicator design matrix has full row matrix rank, even when some combinations are missing, so the model is a saturated statistical model. Its residual sum of squares is zero and its residual degrees of freedom are zero. Missing combinations make some coefficients nonidentifiable; they do not restore a pure-error estimate. Standard errors and an ordinary residual-based F-test for interactions therefore cannot be recovered merely by fitting this larger model.