Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2023 iii Paper 218 1 b Solution 2026-09-28
The researcher computed the Pearson chi-squared statisticand compared it with a distribution, using residual degrees of freedom. Under an adequate large-sample Poisson regression, should be roughly the residual degrees of freedom. The reported tail probability rounds numerically to zero and gives strong evidence of overdispersion.
Possible causes include unobserved heterogeneity or omitted covariates, dependence among respondents, excess zeros, or an incorrect mean function. The conclusion that the Poisson variance assumption fails is well supported, although this test alone does not identify the cause or establish that the Quasi-Poisson regression variance is correct.