Gaussian regression toward the mean 2026-10-14
Take the original synthetic model and , mutually independent random variables, with the second argument denoting variance. The pair has a multivariate normal distribution with mean zero, unit marginal variances, and Pearson correlation coefficient . Its conditional multivariate normal distribution isFor a first reading , the second reading has conditional expectation and conditional variance , hence standard deviation . There is still conditional probability of , a movement farther from zero, where is the standard normal distribution function. The line describes a conditional mean, not an individual trajectory.
A short derivation isolates . Its covariance with is zero and its variance is . Because has a multivariate normal distribution, zero covariance implies independence: independently of . This also explains why reversing the two measurements gives . The statistical association does not identify a direction of causal effect.
Q-Q plot 2026-10-13
A Q-Q plot is a scatter plot pairing quantiles at the same probability levels. For a statistical sample of size , sort the observations into order statistics . Choose plotting positions and a reference quantile function , then plotHere the horizontal coordinate is a reference value, and the vertical coordinate is an observed value; neither axis is the probability . The displayed plotting positions are our chosen convention, placing every level strictly between zero and one. They are not a claim that the th order statistic equals that population quantile. For two statistical samples, use sample quantiles at matching levels, with a stated interpolation convention when their sizes differ. [ref]
As a computed example, take and the standard normal quantiles , where is the standard normal cumulative distribution function. Construct the ordered values . At ranks , the plotting positions are , the reference quantiles are approximately , and the constructed values are approximately . Every point lies on by construction. These 19 values are deliberately chosen, not random draws or real measurements.
The usefulness of a Q-Q plot is that it turns a comparison of probability distributions into geometry: if a reference random variable is transformed into with , its quantile function satisfies . This follows because a positive scaling preserves ordering. Thus the location-scale family produces a straight population Q-Q plot, and an approximate sample line suggests a compatible shape over the observed range. Its intercept describes location and its slope describes scale. The identity line requires the same location, scale and units on both axes; even then its displayed angle is 45 degrees only with equal axis scales. Curvature is often more informative than a histogram because it shows which quantiles depart from the reference. [ref]
https://www.itl.nist.gov/div898/handbook/eda/section3/qqplot.htm. NIST/SEMATECH, Quantile-Quantile Plot, location and scale comparisons
Scatter plot 2026-10-14
A scatter plot represents paired quantitative observations as points in a coordinate plane. Group labels, uncertainty and transformations can reveal nonlinear patterns or heterogeneous associations that a single correlation coefficient conceals. A visual association does not establish causation.

