Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2017 iii Paper 210 1 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-05
For a kernel for density estimation with integral one and a smoothing bandwidth , the univariate kernel density estimator isIts expected value isThis is the convolution identity. It holds wherever the integral is defined, in particular everywhere for the bounded kernel used below. For a nonnegative kernel for density estimation, Tonelli theorem also gives the identity as an extended nonnegative integral. A signed kernel for density estimation instead requires absolute integrability for this interchange.
For the centred unit-width uniform kernel, substitute :Put . The Taylor theorem with Lagrange remainder givesThe odd function term integrates to zero, while . Hence the bias of a kernel density estimator obeysThis is a second-order pointwise bias bound for kernel density estimation. Existence and boundedness of the second derivative suffice for the stated remainder; continuity of that derivative is not an extra assumption.
For concentration, writeThe are independent and identically distributed random variables with a Bernoulli distribution, and . The required concentration bound follows from the Hoeffding lemma. We prove its Bernoulli case directly. Withwe have and , where is the exponentially tilted success probability. Therefore for every real . If or , the centred variable is identically zero and the same bound holds directly.
Independence and the exponential form of the Markov inequality now give, for ,Choose . Applying the same argument to the lower tail and adding the probabilities proves the Hoeffding inequality
To obtain the requested variance constant, use the additional bound that a probability is at most one. Set and . The tail integral formula for moments, justified by Tonelli theorem, yieldsThusThe clipping at one is essential for this integration argument to give that constant. It is an instance of a second moment bound from a clipped Gaussian tail. The exact Bernoulli distribution calculation also gives , an even stronger bound.