Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2018 iii Paper 210 3 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-05
For independent and identically distributed random variables with distribution function , let be the sample maximum. In extreme value theory, belongs to the maximum domain of attraction of a nondegenerate distribution function when there exist and such thatat every continuity point of . Thus the normalized sample maxima have convergence in distribution to .
A positive measurable function has regular variation at infinity with index , written , ifThe case defines a slowly varying function; equivalently a regularly varying function is with a slowly varying function.
Write for the survival function and for the right endpoint of a distribution. For , use the following standard extreme value theory normalization conventions:They are respectively the Fréchet distribution, the negative Weibull distribution, and the Gumbel distribution for maxima. The negative Weibull distribution is supported to the left of its finite endpoint; it is not the usual positive Weibull distribution.
The necessary and sufficient maximum domain of attraction criteria are:
- For the Fréchet distribution,Equivalently for every .
- For the negative Weibull distribution,Equivalently as , for every .
- For the Gumbel distribution,Here is a Gumbel auxiliary function, and can be finite or infinite. For each fixed , the shifted argument lies below eventually. This exponential tail-ratio condition, rather than regular variation with a fixed finite index, characterizes this case.
For the corresponding sufficient hazard function conditions, assume is absolutely continuous near , its survival function tends to zero there, and its probability density function is positive there. Write . The Von Mises conditions for extreme values giveThe last condition additionally assumes that the reciprocal hazard function is continuously differentiable near the endpoint. It concerns the derivative of the reciprocal hazard function, not the derivative of the hazard function itself. Equivalently, when is differentiable, it is .
To see the connection, taking an integral of the hazard function givesThe first two limits make the logarithmic tail ratios over multiplicative or endpoint-distance intervals tend to or , giving the required regular variation. For the Gumbel distribution, set . The derivative condition makes uniformly on bounded -intervals, soThe endpoint assumptions ensure these shifts are admissible: at an infinite endpoint , and at a finite endpoint . These are sufficient smooth-tail conditions; the tail-ratio characterizations above are necessary and sufficient without differentiability assumptions. For a source using the same reciprocal-hazard convention, see Smith and Weissman's university lecture notes, equations (2.18)–(2.24).
For the Gamma distribution with integer shape and rate one, let . The base case is , and integration by parts givesInduction provesThis survival function has the asymptotic form ; for the relation is exact. Put . For every fixed real , and . The proposed centering satisfiessoOnly the highest-degree term contributes to the limit, with the same reasoning covering . The Taylor expansion now givesbecause . Therefore the Gumbel limit for gamma maxima isEquivalently, has convergence in distribution to the standard Gumbel distribution, with scale .
Regular variation Created 2026-10-05 Updated 2026-10-14
A power law responds to every fixed rescaling by the same factor . Regular variation keeps this scaling behaviour in the limit , while allowing departures from an exact power law. It is useful when the scaling exponent is stable but a smaller correction continues changing. The correction can even grow without bound.
An eventually positive measurable function has regular variation at infinity with index ifThe argument is in the domain of a function for sufficiently large . Each is held fixed as the limit is taken; allowing to change with is a different assertion. This is the scalar definition recalled by [ref]
https://people.orie.cornell.edu/sid/NewForLinking/papers/RegVarMeasFinal2.pdf. Filip Lindskog, Sidney I. Resnick and Joyjit Roy, Regularly varying measures on metric spaces: hidden regular variation and hidden jumps, §3.2, p. 12
. The index is unique: taking determines .For example, on the function hasThus has regular variation of index two. Yet : regular variation does not require asymptotic equivalence to a constant times a power law. Doubling gives . At this is approximately , respectively. The ratio approaches four slowly, even though the exponent is exactly two in the limiting scaling law.
An exact power law has a fixed doubling ratio; a logarithmic correction approaches the same ratio without approaching a constant multiple of that power
. Details. The slowly varying function isolates this correction. Set . ThenConversely, multiplying a slowly varying function by gives regular variation of index . Hence the decomposition is exact on its eventual domain of a function; it is the scaling relation, rather than the decomposition itself, that is asymptotic.
A Pareto distribution gives a decreasing example with a direct interpretation. For , take the tail probability . Its regular variation index is . Doubling a threshold divides its tail probability by four, andFor a tail probability with regular variation of index , the same conditional probability tends to . An exponential distribution behaves differently: its corresponding conditional probability is . This comparison explains why scaling limits are useful in extreme value theory; it does not establish that an observed dataset follows a particular tail model. The role of regular variation in heavy-tailed distributions is discussed in Lindskog, Resnick and Roy, introduction, p. 1.
An exponential function is not regularly varying with any finite index: at , , rather than . Boundedness alone is also insufficient, as the oscillating counterexample in slowly varying function shows. Checking a few rescaling ratios at finite arguments can illustrate a proposed law, but cannot prove its limiting definition.
Jovan Karamata developed this theory in his 1930 paper and returned to its fundamental results in 1933. The opening of his 1933 paper identifies the earlier work; pp. 57–58 connect the rescaling limit with a power law and a slowly varying factor. See J. Karamata, Sur un mode de croissance régulière. Théorèmes fondamentaux, Bulletin de la Société Mathématique de France 61 (1933), 55–62. This gives a precise language for “almost a power” without discarding corrections that remain large.
Slowly varying function Created 2026-10-05 Updated 2026-10-14
A positive measurable function is slowly varying at infinity iffor every fixed . It has regular variation of index zero. “Slowly” concerns relative change under multiplication of the argument; it does not mean that the function must be bounded, have a small derivative, or converge to a finite value.
Every positive constant is a slowly varying function. So are , and for any fixed real number , on . Indeed,The first grows without bound, the second tends to zero, and the constant does neither. Another unbounded example is :This function can grow much faster than while retaining regular variation of index zero.
Even convergence is unnecessary. The bounded functionoscillates between and . It is nevertheless a slowly varying function: the change in the argument of the sine under isand the Lipschitz continuity of the sine makes the logarithm of the ratio tend to zero. The sequences and give the two values and for every nonnegative integer , so there is no limit at infinity.
Contrast this with , which is positive and bounded but is not a slowly varying function. Fix . Along its rescaling ratio is ; along the ratio is . The persistent oscillations prevent even a limit for this one fixed rescaling. It is not regularly varying with any finite index either.
Two bounded oscillating functions: logarithmic rescaling makes one ratio approach one, while the other keeps oscillating
. The horizontal coordinate is , and the fixed rescaling is . The displayed range illustrates the formulas; the limiting claims follow from the arguments in the text. Details.The useful distinction is whether a fixed proportional change of input eventually produces a negligible proportional change of output. A slowly varying function can therefore preserve the scaling exponent of a power law while changing its magnitude substantially. The decomposition in regular variation explains why a logarithmic factor can matter in numerical estimates without changing the limiting exponent.

