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Past exam of the martingales and financial mathematics course of the University of Oxford 2009 A 2 a i Solution by
Codex 0 2026-10-31
For the asserted inequality is equality. For , let . If , the inequality is automatic. Otherwise Hölder's inequality on the probability space givesThus , using that the total measure is one.
Past exam of the martingales and financial mathematics course of the University of Oxford 2009 A 1 b iv Solution by
Codex 0 2026-10-31
Let have the uniform distribution on , set , and take . The variable is finite almost surely, so almost surely. For any and all sufficiently large ,The harmonic series diverges, soThis dependent sequence fails complete convergence. All its members are scalar multiples of the same nonconstant random variable, which explains why the independence hypothesis cannot be dropped.
Past exam of the martingales and financial mathematics course of the University of Oxford 2009 A 1 b iii Solution by
Codex 0 2026-10-31
Suppose first that complete convergence holds. For each positive integer , apply the First Borel-Cantelli lemma to . Outside a countable union of null events, only finitely many of these exceedances occur for every . This is almost sure convergence, with no independence assumption.
For the converse, an important point is that independence of does not immediately imply independence of . Instead use the fact that an almost-sure limit of independent random variables is constant. Indeed, is measurable for the tail sigma-algebra. The Kolmogorov zero-one law makes each event , , have probability zero or one. Since almost surely and is finite, these probabilities form the distribution function of a point mass: there is a finite constant with almost surely.
Now are independent events. Almost sure convergence says that their infinitely-often event has probability zero. The contrapositive of the Second Borel-Cantelli lemma givesReplacing by the almost surely equal leaves each probability unchanged. Thus complete convergence and almost sure convergence are equivalent for independent sequences.
Past exam of the martingales and financial mathematics course of the University of Oxford 2009 A 1 b ii Solution by
Codex 0 2026-10-31
By convergence in probability, choose recursively so thatThe corresponding events have a summable sequence of probabilities. The First Borel-Cantelli lemma, which requires no independence, therefore makes the probability of infinitely many of them zero. On the complementary event, for all sufficiently large , provingThe recursively chosen indices are strictly increasing and hence tend to infinity.
Past exam of the martingales and financial mathematics course of the University of Oxford 2009 A 1 b i Solution by
Codex 0 2026-10-31
Independent random variables satisfy, for every finite selection of distinct indices and Borel sets ,The Second Borel-Cantelli lemma says that if events are independent and , thenHere is the event that infinitely many of the occur.
Past exam of the martingales and financial mathematics course of the University of Oxford 2009 A 1 a ii Solution by
Codex 0 2026-10-31
Fix and use the indicator random variables . Almost sure convergence gives almost surely, while . The Reverse Fatou lemma states that for random variables bounded above by an integrable random variable,It follows thatSince was arbitrary, this proves convergence in probability. The integrable upper bound is essential to the application of the Reverse Fatou lemma.
Past exam of the martingales and financial mathematics course of the University of Oxford 2009 A 1 a i Solution by
Codex 0 2026-10-31
Almost sure convergence meansThus a single event of probability one supports ordinary pointwise convergence. Convergence in probability means that for every ,The exceptional event is allowed to change with in the second definition.
Past exam of the martingales and financial mathematics course of the University of Oxford 2008 B 6 i c Solution by
Codex 0 2026-10-31
The difference between the high-strike and low-strike put payoffs satisfiesIf its price were negative, buying the nonnegative-payoff spread would generate an arbitrage. If its price exceeded the discounted maximum payoff, selling it and buying a bond for that maximum would generate an arbitrage. Thus the sharper inequality isFor the positive-rate convention of the paper this implies the printed upper bound . If rates were allowed to be negative, the undiscounted upper bound need not hold; the discounted bound is the correct rate-independent statement. This distinction is about the stated financial assumptions, not a change to the transcribed inequality.
Past exam of the martingales and financial mathematics course of the University of Oxford 2008 B 6 i b Solution by
Codex 0 2026-10-31
A stock share plus a put has terminal value . If , buy that package and borrow the price of a bond paying . The package covers the debt at maturity, while the strictly positive initial surplus can be invested. This would be an arbitrage. ConsequentlyTogether with payoff nonnegativity, the lower bound can be strengthened to the maximum of this expression and zero.
Past exam of the martingales and financial mathematics course of the University of Oxford 2008 B 6 i a Solution by
Codex 0 2026-10-31
The terminal put payoff obeys . If the put cost more than the zero-coupon bond paying , sell the put and buy that bond. Invest the strictly positive initial difference in the bank account. At maturity the bond covers every possible put liability and the extra investment remains positive. This arbitrage is excluded, so
Past exam of the martingales and financial mathematics course of the University of Oxford 2008 A 4 b ii Solution by
Codex 0 2026-10-31
If is continuous at , choose a small interval on which . The triangle inequality makes its oscillation less than , so .
Conversely, if , then for every some has . As itself belongs to the interval used in that supremum, for . Thus is continuous at .
The continuity set of a function is thereforeEach set in the intersection is open by part (i), so this is a G-delta set and in particular a Borel set, even if itself is not measurable.
Past exam of the martingales and financial mathematics course of the University of Oxford 2008 A 4 b i Solution by
Codex 0 2026-10-31
Boundedness of makes finite and nonnegative. Suppose . By its infimum definition, some satisfies . If , thenThe supremum over the smaller interval cannot exceed that over the larger one. HenceThus is open for every , proving is upper semicontinuous. Measurability of the original was never needed: these are purely pointwise oscillation bounds.
Past exam of the martingales and financial mathematics course of the University of Oxford 2008 A 4 a iii Solution by
Codex 0 2026-10-31
For a lower semicontinuous function, each upper-ray inverse image is open, hence Borel, so part (a)(i) applies directly. For an upper semicontinuous , the function is lower semicontinuous becauseis open. Negation is continuous and Borel measurable, so is Borel measurable too. Thus both semicontinuity classes are Borel measurable.
Past exam of the martingales and financial mathematics course of the University of Oxford 2008 A 4 a ii Solution by
Codex 0 2026-10-31
Every open interval is Borel, since , omitting empty pieces. Open subsets of the line are countable unions of open intervals and hence Borel. Conversely, each half-open interval is obtained from open sets by sigma-algebra operations, so this is the usual Borel sigma-algebra.
A continuous function has open, and therefore Borel, inverse images of open sets. Since open sets generate the target Borel sigma-algebra, it is a Borel measurable function. A discontinuous example is , whose only level sets are built from the Borel half-lines; it jumps at zero.
Past exam of the martingales and financial mathematics course of the University of Oxford 2008 A 4 a i Solution by
Codex 0 2026-10-31
For sufficiency, note that the rays generate the stipulated sigma-algebra: , and , with integer . The familyis a sigma-algebra because inverse images preserve complements and countable unions. If it contains all upper rays, it contains their generated Borel sigma-algebra. Therefore upper-ray preimages suffice to prove Borel measurability.
Past exam of the martingales and financial mathematics course of the University of Oxford 2008 A 3 b iii Solution by
Codex 0 2026-10-31
In any proposed decomposition, is integrable. Its increment is -measurable by predictability. Taking conditional expectation of the difference equation givesThe martingale increment has conditional mean zero, and a measurable integrable variable equals its own conditional expectation. Starting from , summation gives . Hence . Thus the normalized predictable decomposition is unique, with a common probability-one event available for all integer times by countability.
Past exam of the martingales and financial mathematics course of the University of Oxford 2008 A 3 b ii Solution by
Codex 0 2026-10-31
The process is adapted and integrable. Since is already -measurable,Therefore is a martingale, and is the Doob decomposition in discrete time. Its normalization is , so the initial value is included in .
Past exam of the martingales and financial mathematics course of the University of Oxford 2008 A 3 b i Solution by
Codex 0 2026-10-31
The supermartingale property and linearity of conditional expectation give, for ,Each is integrable and -measurable, while . Thus is integrable andMoreover, all terms , , are -measurable, so . This is predictability of the decreasing component in the Doob decomposition theorem.
Past exam of the martingales and financial mathematics course of the University of Oxford 2008 A 3 a iii Solution by
Codex 0 2026-10-31
A martingale is an adapted process with for every andAdaptedness means that is -measurable. Iterating the tower property gives the analogous identity for any two deterministic times .
Past exam of the martingales and financial mathematics course of the University of Oxford 2008 A 3 a ii Solution by
Codex 0 2026-10-31
Let be two versions. For every , their defining identities imply . The set belongs to , and thereforeEvery is null. Their union is , so it too is null. Reversing proves the same for . Hence versions of conditional expectation are equal almost surely.
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