Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2016 ib Paper 2 20H b iii Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-10-06
The only closed communicating class is ; the class is open and transient. Its one-step probability of staying inside is at most , so if is the entrance time into , then for an initial state in . Hence entrance occurs almost surely in finite time.
On it is an irreducible aperiodic Markov chain, because both states have positive self-loop probabilities. The finite irreducible aperiodic countable-state Markov chain convergence theorem says that its transition probabilities converge to its unique stationary distribution. The balance equation with gives and .
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2017 ib Paper 2 20H c Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-10-05
Every reachable state reaches zero deterministically in steps. For , choose a supported lifetime ; zero can jump to and then count down to . Thus the chain is an irreducible Markov chain on . Its positive-probability first return lengths are exactly the support of ; all other return lengths are sums of such lengths. Their greatest common divisor is therefore one by assumption, so the chain is an aperiodic Markov chain.
The equilibrium residual-life distribution isIt is a probability distribution because the tail-sum identity gives . With zero masses outside ,so it is a stationary distribution. This also displays why finite mean is needed for normalization.
Use the countable-state Markov chain convergence theorem: an irreducible, aperiodic, positive recurrent discrete-time chain on a countable state space has a unique stationary distribution and for every pair of states. All hypotheses were verified, including positive recurrence in part (b). Since and ,The finite-state convergence theorem alone would not suffice when the lifetimes are unbounded. The gcd hypothesis is also necessary for this ordinary limit: deterministic lifetime 2, for example, produces alternating renewal probabilities rather than convergence.