Assume, as in the Bayesian model, that the unknown drift is independent of the driving Brownian motion, with known positive prior precision . Recover the observed signal from the positive stock price:
For a fixed time , the centered observed path is a Brownian bridge independent of : it is independent of the prior and has zero covariance with in their joint Gaussian law. Thus the whole observed history has the same posterior information about as its endpoint. This proves Brownian endpoint sufficiency for a constant drift rather than assuming it.
The likelihood of that endpoint, as a function of , is proportional to . Multiplying by the normal distribution prior and completing the square gives the Gaussian Brownian drift filter
Define the observed innovation process . It is a continuous observed-filtration martingale: for , independence of future noise and the tower property of conditional expectation give , so the conditional mean of its increment vanishes. Its quadratic variation is , since subtracting the finite-variation drift from does not change quadratic variation. The Lévy characterization of Brownian motion makes an observed-filtration Brownian motion. Differentiating the posterior mean gives
Conversely, the last equation determines from with deterministic coefficients and known initial value, and . Thus the observed and innovation filtrations coincide, supplying the natural Brownian information needed for replication. Consequently the observed stock dynamics are . Its observed market price of risk is , and its normalized state-price density solves
The posterior mean is unbounded, so bounded-coefficient Novikov condition reasoning from Question 2 is not available automatically. A direct finite-horizon argument supplies true pricing. Relative to driftless Wiener measure for , the Bayesian mixture has observation density
A law with observation drift instead has density . Therefore
This is the finite-horizon pricing density for Gaussian drift learning. The ratio changes the physical observed law into a genuine probability law, hence has mean one. Indeed, differentiation of the explicit likelihood, using , gives
The Itô formula therefore gives , agreeing with the stochastic exponential above. Under this pricing law the stock drift is .
For logarithmic utility, terminal marginal utility is . The state-price budget constraint and the marginal condition imply and . Since is constant, its conditional-expectation pricing process is constant as well. Thus the entire optimal wealth process is
Indeed, for any other nonnegative admissible terminal wealth , the elementary inequality gives
This directly verifies optimality. Expected candidate log wealth is finite because and its time integral is finite on every fixed horizon. Applying the Itô formula to gives
The observed self-financing portfolio with risky dollar fraction has diffusion coefficient . Matching the coefficients proves the log-optimal investment with Gaussian drift learning rule
The remaining dollars are held in the bank account; the fraction may be negative or exceed one because the question imposes neither short-sale nor borrowing restrictions.
Use , as implicit in the specified initial value of . First let . The Lévy characterization of Brownian motion makes Brownian motion relative to the given filtration. Set
On this event at time one, the drift has absolute size at most , while , so . Continuity forces exit by time one. Therefore
The same estimate applies conditionally at each integer time without assuming anything about future drift independence. On , ; if , the drift bound forces exit by . That Brownian increment is independent of . Hence
In particular almost surely.
For general , write and . Continuity of and monotonicity of its integral imply at all times outside one null set. The drift condition gives
Let . The divergent clock makes finite for every , and its continuity gives . By the Dambis-Dubins-Schwarz theorem, is Brownian motion for . On intervals where is constant, both and are constant. Thus is a continuous adapted function of clock time satisfying . The time-changed process is
The unit-clock argument uses only this increment bound on the drift, so its first exit time obeys . It is finite almost surely, and a corresponding finite ordinary time has . This proves the exit with drift controlled by quadratic variation result
This proof needs only a nonnegative measurable bracket density, a continuous divergent integral clock, and the drift increment bound; pointwise continuity of the density is unnecessary. This observation permits the application below with measurable SDE coefficients.
For the multidimensional SDE, put . The generator of an SDE diffusion is
For every , the Itô formula gives
Bounded derivatives and bounded noise fields make the right side square-integrable on each finite horizon, hence a true martingale. This is precisely the defining test-function property of an L-diffusion, in the martingale-problem sense.
Now fix and . Its scalar projection has martingale part and drift . The uniform ellipticity assumption gives
Let and take . Rescale the projection by . Its bracket density is at least , its absolute drift is at most , and hence that drift is at most times its bracket density, with . Its clock diverges, so the exit lemma forces it out of in finite time. Equivalently it leaves the slab . Taking a countable sequence of integer tending to infinity proves the projection unboundedness of a uniformly elliptic diffusion:
For the final uniqueness result, let , with . Since is bounded, it lies in a finite slab; the preceding finite slab-exit time bounds from above. Thus almost surely. Continuity gives .
Set . It is bounded, has bounded derivatives, is zero on the boundary, and satisfies in . The stopped test-function identity says is a martingale; equivalently it is a bounded local martingale, which suffices. Taking expectations and then using bounded convergence as gives
Therefore the bounded-domain harmonic uniqueness for a diffusion conclusion is
In particular the argument supplies the representation and establishes uniqueness without selecting a unique diffusion law.
Since , invert the image clock before exit and put . Its quadratic variation is and its initial value is zero, because . By the Lévy characterization of Brownian motion, or the localized Dambis-Dubins-Schwarz theorem,
for a standard Brownian motion up to the image exit time. If that lifetime is finite, the stopped Brownian motion can be extended beyond it; only the stopped law is used here.
In this clock the image mapping-out functions obey the ordinary Chordal Loewner equation with driver . Their generated trace therefore has the law of SLE with parameter six, stopped when it leaves . Meanwhile the original image segment is exactly up to exit from . The clock change is increasing, so it disappears after passing to . This proves the local stopped-curve equality required in part (a).
For completeness, the original law is scale invariant: the maps have driver , whose law is again by Brownian scaling. Hence has the original trace law. Together with the stopped conformal-change argument, this establishes
The conclusion concerns local unparameterized segments up to exit; the capacity parameter itself changes according to .
Work on a common stochastic basis on which are independent Brownian motions and the solutions are adapted; independent weak solutions can be put on the product stochastic basis. Independence gives . Put and define the predictable weights
They are bounded and satisfy everywhere. Define
This is a zero-start continuous local martingale, and its quadratic variation is . By the Lévy characterization of Brownian motion, is a Brownian motion in the common filtration.
On , and . On , nonnegativity forces both to be zero, so the same identities hold. Associativity of stochastic integration therefore gives
This proves the addition law for square-root branching diffusions: is a weak solution with initial value . Specifying the weights at zero is necessary to keep after extinction; simply setting both weights to zero would fail to produce a Brownian driver.
Define . Positivity and smoothness of make continuous and bounded on compact space-time sets. Brownian paths remain in compact spatial sets on each finite horizon, so almost surely for every . Thus
is a well-defined continuous local martingale with . The backward heat equation from part (b) removes the drift in Itô's formula and yields
By the allowed fact and the uniqueness in part (a),
The finite-horizon form of the Girsanov theorem used here says: if is a continuous local martingale and its stochastic exponential is a strictly positive true martingale of mean one on , then under every continuous -local martingale becomes the -local martingale . Quadratic variation is unchanged by this locally equivalent change of measure.
All the assumptions hold. The integrand defining is locally square integrable as checked above; is strictly positive; and it is already a true martingale because it is the density process. On each finite horizon , so it is uniformly integrable on that horizon. There is no need to establish a separate Novikov condition, nor to assume equivalence on the infinite-time sigma-algebra.
Take . Its covariation with is . Hence is a continuous -local martingale starting at zero with . The Lévy characterization of Brownian motion makes it Brownian under . Since this argument holds on every finite horizon for the same process ,
This is the Brownian change of measure by a positive space-time harmonic function, a Doob h-transform with drift .
Put . First verify that the origin is not reached, so that differentiating the radius is legitimate. On the function is harmonic. For with , the Itô formula makes a martingale on each finite horizon: its stochastic integrand has norm at most . Since ,
Let , then . Any path hitting zero must first hit every positive , so .
For , and in three dimensions. Itô's formula, initially localized away from zero, yields
The continuous local martingale has bracket and starts at zero. By the Lévy characterization of Brownian motion, is Brownian motion. Thus
This proves that the radial process is a three-dimensional Bessel process solving the same equation as in part (b). The permitted uniqueness in distribution identifies their laws as processes.
The strong law in part (a) gives , and the inverse clock satisfies . Hence . Equality of process laws transfers this almost sure path property to .
For the further logarithmic rate, fix . Almost surely, for all sufficiently large , . With a finite random lower cutoff , for ,
Taking logarithms and dividing by gives lower and upper asymptotic bounds and . Letting along a countable sequence proves the logarithmic growth of an exponential Brownian clock with positive drift, . Also . Since ,
Again transfer the full path event by uniqueness in distribution. We obtain the logarithmic escape rate of three-dimensional Brownian motion
For an independent way to identify the value once existence of the almost sure limit is granted, use Brownian scaling. At each fixed , has the law of , where is standard three-dimensional Gaussian. Its norm converges in distribution to the strictly positive finite variable , so is tight. Therefore
An existing almost sure limit must agree with this probability limit. This guesses and identifies the value through scaling, while the inverse-clock argument proves that the almost sure limit actually exists.
Treat the two-point prior for as independent of the driving Brownian motion. On a partition , conditionally on , the increments of are independent normal distributions with means and variances . Their likelihood ratio is
Thus every partition containing gives the same Bayesian posterior, depending only on the endpoint. Refine partitions through a dense set of observation times. Continuity makes their increasing observation fields generate the full path field , and convergence of bounded conditional expectations preserves that Bayesian posterior. Equal prior probabilities and the Bayes' theorem consequently give
Its conditional mean drift is
This is the binary Brownian drift filter.
Define the observed innovation process
It is continuous and adapted to . For , independence of future Brownian motion increments from the past and the latent drift gives
For every , the tower property of conditional expectation gives
Since , conditional integration is justified. Subtracting the integrated identities shows . Thus is a square-integrable martingale. Subtracting a continuous finite variation process does not change quadratic variation, so . The Lévy characterization of Brownian motion now proves that is a Brownian motion in the observation filtration. Therefore
Let be the inverse image-capacity clock. Part (a) and the quadratic variation of a stochastic integral give
The Dambis-Dubins-Schwarz theorem, or the Lévy characterization of Brownian motion, now shows that is standard Brownian motion up to the terminal image time. If that terminal clock is finite, it can be extended by a fresh Brownian continuation; this does not assert anything about the subsequent image trace. The initial value is zero because .
Differentiating the image Loewner chain with respect to its own half-plane capacity time gives
Thus, until its first hit of , the reparametrized image has the ordinary chordal SLE law from to infinity. This follows from the uniqueness of the Chordal Loewner equation for a given continuous driver; the continuous Loewner trace is recovered from the inverse-map limit. Localization can be removed by exhausting times strictly before this boundary contact. The terminal event is defined from the trace itself, so equality of the stopped trace laws follows as well.
On the other hand, the definition of Conformal invariance of SLE says that the full unparameterized image has the law of chordal from to , namely the law of . Its stopping event at is exactly the image of the original stopping event at . Therefore the same stopped image has both laws: ordinary from to infinity stopped at , and from to stopped at . We conclude
The statement does not identify with in their original clocks. It is target-change locality of SLE6, derived from the zero drift and capacity time change rather than assumed as a theorem.
For in , the radial function has
The multidimensional Itô formula, initially stopped away from zero, gives
The martingale term has quadratic variation , since . The Lévy characterization of Brownian motion says that a continuous local martingale starting at zero with quadratic variation is a standard Brownian motion. Consequently the radial equation is
On the drift is Lipschitz continuous. Extend it to a bounded globally Lipschitz function on the real line. The standard existence and pathwise uniqueness theorem for stochastic differential equations with globally Lipschitz coefficients applies to this extension, and gives uniqueness in law up to the first exit from . Both this radial process and the process in part (a) solve the same equation from . Thus
where each exit time is computed from its own coordinate path.
For completeness, the radial equation is valid globally: the three-dimensional Bessel process does not hit zero. Apply the Itô formula to on the annulus. Its drift is zero, and the stopped process is a bounded martingale. At the first exit,
so
The exit time is finite because one coordinate of the underlying Brownian motion reaches in finite time. Letting and then considering arbitrarily large proves that zero is never reached. The radial martingale therefore has quadratic variation on the whole time axis, completing the Lévy characterization of Brownian motion argument.
Use the local convention for the martingale problem, which is appropriate for arbitrary measurable coefficients. A continuous adapted process solves if the coefficient integrals are locally finite and, for every ,
is a local martingale. Here locally finite means almost surely for each . Suitable localization upgrades the identities to true martingale identities. With bounded coefficients and bounded test derivatives, this distinction disappears on finite horizons.
A Markov diffusion generated by is a time-homogeneous Markov process with continuous paths whose infinitesimal generator on the stated test domain is . Its transition operators satisfy the generator limit, and Dynkin formula gives precisely the preceding martingale problem identities. Some terminology uses L-diffusion for the test-function identities alone; the Markov property is an additional assertion unless uniqueness supplies it.
Suppose now . Use smooth compactly supported functions agreeing with and on , and stop before exiting this interval. Removing these stops shows that
is a continuous local martingale. Consequently is a continuous semimartingale. The martingale problem applied to the second cutoff function says that
is a local martingale. The Itô formula for also says that
is a local martingale. Subtracting, the continuous finite-variation process is a local martingale and starts at zero. The theorem that a continuous finite-variation local martingale is constant gives
Define
The integrand is predictable and is stochastically integrable, since its integral against the bracket is exactly . Thus is a continuous local martingale with and . The Lévy characterization of Brownian motion states that these conditions make a Brownian motion relative to the given filtration. Associativity of stochastic integrals recovers , and therefore
The original process is a weak solution of a stochastic differential equation, with its driving Brownian motion constructed on the original space.
Conversely, the Itô formula applied to any weak solution with locally integrable coefficients gives the martingale problem identities. A Markov diffusion with generator gives them by Dynkin formula. A well-posed martingale problem, with the usual measurable path-space setup, identifies a unique family of diffusion laws and yields the Strong Markov property. Without uniqueness, the test-function identities alone do not assert that every chosen solution is Markov. This specifies both the equivalence with weak equations and the role of uniqueness in identifying a diffusion.
One continuous Girsanov theorem formulation is as follows. Let be a zero-starting continuous local martingale such that is a strictly positive uniformly integrable martingale, and define . For every continuous -local martingale ,
On a finite horizon the same assertion holds with terminal density , provided is a true martingale through . In particular, if , then
is a Brownian motion under , on the specified horizon. Its quadratic variation remains under this absolutely continuous measure (equivalent on every finite-horizon sigma-algebra), and the Lévy characterization of Brownian motion identifies it as Brownian. The density sign and drift subtraction are paired: choosing the exponential of instead produces .
The sampling rule in the PDF is with replacement. Thus conditional on the current proportion , the next count is . Put and . Direct binomial moments give
The fourth centered moment of a binomial distribution implies . The accelerated generator of the Wright–Fisher binomial sampling chain is
For , Taylor's formula uniformly yields
The initial condition is , so . The endpoints are absorbing.
We give the path-space argument, rather than only a formal generator calculation. Regard as a càdlàg process in with the Skorokhod topology. The chain proportion is a bounded martingale, with predictable square compensator . For bounded stopping times , optional sampling gives . This bound uses the deterministic number of grid jumps in an interval of length at most . Compact containment is automatic. The Aldous tightness criterion therefore proves tightness.
Furthermore, the fourth-moment bound and a union bound give
Every subsequential limit is continuous. For each smooth , the discrete compensated process
is a martingale. Generator convergence and continuity of any limiting path turn the sum into . These compensated processes are uniformly bounded on , so their martingale identities pass to the limit against bounded continuous functions of past coordinates. A Monotone class theorem argument extends the identities to the natural filtration. Smooth approximation in the norm extends the test class. Thus every limit solves the martingale problem for on .
To identify this problem with the stated SDE, tests equal to and on (using bounded smooth extensions) give a continuous martingale with bracket . On an enlargement carrying independent Brownian motion , set
Its bracket is , and the Lévy characterization of Brownian motion makes it Brownian. The zero-coefficient portion of has zero bracket, so . Conversely Itô's formula shows that any such SDE solution solves the limiting martingale problem. The allowed uniqueness of the SDE, understood at least as uniqueness in law, therefore makes every subsequential limit have the same law. Consequently
The limit is the Wright–Fisher diffusion. Linear interpolation has the same weak limit in the uniform topology because the maximum jump tends to zero. The results applied are Aldous tightness, the vanishing-jump continuous-limit criterion, passage of uniformly bounded martingale identities under weak convergence, Lévy characterization, and uniqueness in law; the estimates above verify their hypotheses.
Fix . The given normal distribution and part (d) imply
One can deduce determinism without any moment assumption on the bracket. Put . Taking gives and , so . Therefore almost surely. Applying this at every rational time and using continuity of quadratic variation gives simultaneously for all outside a single null set.
The Lévy characterization of Brownian motion states that a continuous local martingale starting at zero with this bracket is Brownian motion in its filtration. To see the independent-increment conclusion directly, the Itô formula shows that is a martingale on any fixed bounded time interval: it is a local martingale with a deterministic bound on its modulus. Thus
The deterministic conditional characteristic function identifies an increment independent of . Together with the given path continuity and , this proves is Brownian motion.
Use . Applying the Itô formula and the Itô product rule gives
The finite-variation terms cancel in the prescribed combination, leaving
Thus is initially a continuous local martingale. It is a true martingale, not merely local. On each fixed horizon ,
Part (a) with , the assumed bracket moments and Cauchy-Schwarz inequality make this bound integrable. The integrable-supremum martingale criterion now applies, by localization and dominated conditional expectations. The same reasoning makes a martingale, so .
The zero covariance now means . Since and ,
This is the fourth-moment deficit and bracket variance identity. If equality holds for every , then almost surely for each . Take a single probability-one event for all rational times and use continuity to obtain simultaneously for all times. The Lévy characterization of Brownian motion then proves is Brownian motion in its given filtration. A proof of that characterization by conditional characteristic functions is included in Question 2(a).
Let , and first suppose almost surely in addition to strict increase. The Dambis-Dubins-Schwarz theorem says that
define a Brownian motion in the time-changed filtration and give
Each is a stopping time and is finite. Continuity and strict increase of make continuous, and .
Here are the martingale details behind this inverse-clock proof of the Dambis-Dubins-Schwarz theorem. Stopping a continuous local martingale when its bracket reaches makes it an L2-bounded continuous martingale. This follows from the stopped Itô isometry or from the estimate proved in Question 1(a), applied after localization. In particular it is uniformly integrable, and optional sampling is valid even at an unbounded stopping time by taking limits. Applying this to stopped at shows that is a martingale. Thus is a continuous local martingale. Time-changing in the same way shows is a local martingale, so .
For completeness, the Lévy characterization of Brownian motion follows directly from the Itô formula. If a continuous local martingale , starting at zero, has bracket , then
is a complex local martingale. Its modulus is bounded on each deterministic finite horizon, so it is a true martingale there. Consequently
Conditional characteristic functions give Gaussian increments independent of the past. Iterating this identity gives independent increments, and continuity completes the Brownian characterization. The identical vector argument proves the Lévy characterization of multidimensional Brownian motion when the bracket matrix is .
The printed strict-increase hypothesis does not imply . For example, has strictly increasing bracket . To state the theorem under exactly the printed hypothesis, allow an independent enlargement of the probability space if the terminal clock can be finite.
On the martingale has a finite terminal limit. Indeed, stopping at each bracket level gives an L2-bounded continuous martingale which converges; on the stopped process is the original one. This proves the finite-bracket convergence lemma. Set when and continue by that terminal limit. The optional-sampling argument just given makes a continuous local martingale with bracket . Moreover is a stopping time in .
On a product extension add an independent Brownian motion in clock time, and put
The two summands have zero quadratic covariation, and their brackets are and . Thus ; the proved characterization makes Brownian. Since at every finite when is finite, still holds. This is the finite-lifetime extension of the Dambis-Dubins-Schwarz theorem. An infinite clock gives Brownian motion on the original space; a finite clock may require the independent extension.
Since the density martingale is uniformly integrable, . Equivalence of measures, as stipulated, means almost surely. Write for the stochastic logarithm. The Itô formula gives , and hence the quadratic covariation in the drift correction is
It involves the local-martingale part of ; its continuous finite-variation part has zero covariation.
With , the Itô product rule now gives an exact cancellation:
Thus is a P-local martingale. To transfer this conclusion rigorously, set . The same computation for the stopped gives
This is again a P-local martingale. Moreover its absolute value is at most . Uniform integrability of makes the family over bounded stopping times uniformly integrable, so the product is a true martingale. This is the bounded-process density-product criterion.
The Bayes formula for conditional expectation therefore gives, for ,
Continuity gives , proving is a Q-local martingale. This proves the needed Girsanov theorem rather than invoking it.
For the Brownian-filtration conclusion, use this precise Brownian martingale representation theorem: every continuous local martingale in the usual augmentation of the natural Brownian filtration is an Itô integral with a predictable integrand locally square integrable in time. In particular
Define
On each finite horizon a strictly positive continuous has a positive pathwise minimum. Thus almost surely, and
The already proved measure-change result makes a continuous Q-local martingale. Its quadratic variation is , unchanged by its finite-variation correction. The Lévy characterization of Brownian motion proves
No additional exponential-integrability condition is needed, since the equivalent uniformly integrable density process is already given.
The scalar Lévy characterization of Brownian motion states that an adapted process starting at zero is a Brownian motion if and only if it is a continuous local martingale with
For necessity, the centered independent increments make a Brownian motion a martingale. Their conditional second moments show that is also a martingale. The defining uniqueness of the quadratic variation compensator gives .
For sufficiency, fix and apply the Itô formula to
The time drift cancels the second-order Itô term, leaving . Its real and imaginary parts are local martingales. On any deterministic interval , , so the bounded local martingale criterion makes them true martingales. Therefore
Part (b) proves the Brownian property. This also supplies a proof of Lévy's characterization of Brownian motion through conditional Fourier transforms.
Because is continuous, adapted, and strictly positive, is predictable and locally integrable against . Define
The quadratic variation of a stochastic integral is
Thus starts at zero and is a continuous local martingale with bracket . The Lévy characterization of Brownian motion makes it a Brownian motion in the original filtration.
The process is continuous and adapted, and almost surely. The associativity of stochastic integration gives
This is the stochastic-integral representation from absolutely continuous quadratic variation.
Put and . The Itô formula gives . The independence of the two Brownian motions gives , so the product formula yields
For , and . The drift terms cancel in the Itô formula:
Define the rotated stochastic integral
It is a continuous local martingale with
The Lévy characterization of Brownian motion makes a Brownian motion. Since and ,
This is the arctangent transform of a two-noise affine diffusion.