The assumed maximum-likelihood estimator is the sample mean of . Its central limit theorem is
For a regular model, the regular maximum-likelihood limit is
The two asymptotic variances must agree, so
Consequently
to first asymptotic order. The estimator therefore attains the Cramer-Rao bound asymptotically: its precision, the reciprocal variance, exhausts the information in the sample.
Conditional independence makes the log-likelihood
A maximum-likelihood estimator is any . If the model has fitted real parameters, its Akaike information criterion is
For the normal linear model, the maximum-likelihood estimators are
and
The divisor is for maximum likelihood, rather than the degrees-of-freedom divisor used by the unbiased residual-variance estimator.
The log-likelihood is, up to constants, , so the maximum-likelihood estimator is . By the central limit theorem,
Applying the delta method to gives
Let
Ignoring the immaterial choice of density values at the sample points, the likelihood function is
Between consecutive order statistics, is constant while decreases with . A maximum can therefore be moved to the left endpoint of one of these intervals. With an equivalent version using , the maximum is attained at a sample order statistic. Thus the maximum-likelihood estimator coincides with one of .
The maximum-likelihood estimators are the success proportions
The invariance property of maximum likelihood estimation therefore gives
In a constant hazard survival model, the maximum-likelihood estimator is the number of observed events divided by total person-time at risk. Treatment A contributes deaths in months, while Treatment B contributes deaths in months. Hence
The score equation is independent of , because is only a common factor. Fixing or estimating it therefore gives the same maximum-likelihood estimator .
Under the usual full-rank and regularity conditions,
with evaluated consistently at the fitted means. Consequently every standard error from "mod2" is times the corresponding standard error computed with dispersion one in "mod1". In particular,
Let
and set
The within-galaxy contrasts contain no , so the parameter-dependent log-likelihood reduces to
The score equations give the maximum-likelihood estimators
The calibrator and Hubble-flow samples are independent, so both estimators are unbiased and
The Fisher information matrix for is
Hence : attains the multiparameter Cramer-Rao bound.
Since and the reparametrization is one-to-one, invariance of the maximum-likelihood estimator gives
Ignoring terms independent of , the log-likelihood is
Its score function is
Since , the interior critical point is the maximum, giving
The sum of independent Poisson distributions is Poisson with mean , so
Thus the maximum-likelihood estimator is also unbiased.
For each substudy define the log-odds treatment effect
The normal random-effects log-likelihood, up to an additive constant, is
Its score equations give
These are the maximum-likelihood estimators rather than the unbiased sample-variance estimator. At an interior solution with , the Hessian in is negative definite, which is the required second-order condition.
At , the expected Fisher information is
Requiring it to exceed directly controls the large-sample variance of the maximum-likelihood estimator, approximately . Choose from the desired standard error, confidence-interval width, or power for clinically relevant alternatives, allowing for any planned significance level.
For individual , let be the reported count, the gender indicator, and the minority indicator. The fitted Poisson regression is
Its log-likelihood is
The maximum-likelihood estimator is
Holding minority status fixed, changing the gender indicator from zero to one multiplies the fitted conditional expected value by . Thus the fitted mean count for men is about lower than that for women with the same minority status.
For a likelihood with estimated parameters, the Akaike information criterion is
where is the maximum-likelihood estimator. Among likelihoods for the same observed response and reference measure, smaller AIC estimates smaller expected out-of-sample Kullback-Leibler divergence up to a model-independent constant.
The commands choose observations and predictors; generate a matrix of independent standard-normal values; generate independent binary random variables with success probability ; and report the observed number of successes, . The first glm call then fits the Bernoulli logistic-regression model
The prediction command returns the fitted response probabilities and sums them.
The likelihood is
At the maximum-likelihood estimator, the intercept component of the score function is
Therefore
exactly, by the fitted-mean balance for logistic regression with an intercept.
The second fit uses probit regression,
where is the standard normal distribution function. Its intercept score is
a weighted residual equation. It does not imply , so exact equality is not expected. The output should nevertheless be close to : the data were generated with constant success probability independently of , so the fitted slopes should be small, the linear predictors should cluster near a common intercept, and the score weights should be nearly constant.
Under a country-specific constant hazard survival model, let be the number of deaths and the total person-time at risk in country . The likelihood is proportional to
so the maximum-likelihood estimator is . Test by a likelihood-ratio test, score test, or Wald test; equivalently, give a Poisson distribution with mean and test the country coefficient in a Poisson regression with offset .
A binary logistic regression sets
and classifies by the sign of . Its unpenalized maximum-likelihood estimator minimizes the empirical logistic loss
The plotted data are complete separation data: there is a vector with every signed margin . For every finite , increasing strictly decreases each term of , and as . No finite parameter attains zero, so the unpenalized optimization has no solution.
Adding an penalty with , constraining , or using a finite stopping rule makes the problem attain a finite approximate solution. The penalized option is preferable because cross-validation can select the strength of regularization.
Differentiating the log-likelihood gives the unique stationary point
Its Hessian is diagonal with entries , , and , so it is the unique maximum. The estimators are unbiased and have variances
which equal their Cramér-Rao lower bounds because the normal location statistics are efficient.
Since , invariance of the maximum-likelihood estimator gives
It is unbiased and normal with variance
The neural-network likelihood is nonconvex, so optimization can stop at a local optimum or saddle rather than a global maximum. One hundred epochs may be insufficient for convergence. Mini-batch gradient noise together with a fixed positive learning rate can keep the iterates fluctuating around a stationary point rather than reaching it exactly. Any of these prevents the final parameters from being exact maximum-likelihood estimators.