Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2019 ii Paper 4 28J b iv Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-10-03
The assumed maximum-likelihood estimator is the sample mean of . Its central limit theorem isFor a regular model, the regular maximum-likelihood limit isThe two asymptotic variances must agree, soConsequentlyto first asymptotic order. The estimator therefore attains the Cramer-Rao bound asymptotically: its precision, the reciprocal variance, exhausts the information in the sample.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2020 ii Paper 3 5J a Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-10-03
Conditional independence makes the log-likelihoodA maximum-likelihood estimator is any . If the model has fitted real parameters, its Akaike information criterion is
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2021 ib Paper 3 18H i Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-09-25
For the normal linear model, the maximum-likelihood estimators areandThe divisor is for maximum likelihood, rather than the degrees-of-freedom divisor used by the unbiased residual-variance estimator.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2021 ii Paper 3 28J a Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-10-03
The log-likelihood is, up to constants, , so the maximum-likelihood estimator is . By the central limit theorem,Applying the delta method to gives
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2022 ib Paper 2 6H a Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-09-25
LetIgnoring the immaterial choice of density values at the sample points, the likelihood function isBetween consecutive order statistics, is constant while decreases with . A maximum can therefore be moved to the left endpoint of one of these intervals. With an equivalent version using , the maximum is attained at a sample order statistic. Thus the maximum-likelihood estimator coincides with one of .
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2022 iii Paper 207 2 2 Solution Created 2026-09-28 Updated 2026-10-03
The maximum-likelihood estimators are the success proportionsThe invariance property of maximum likelihood estimation therefore gives
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2022 iii Paper 207 4 b Solution Created 2026-09-28 Updated 2026-10-03
In a constant hazard survival model, the maximum-likelihood estimator is the number of observed events divided by total person-time at risk. Treatment A contributes deaths in months, while Treatment B contributes deaths in months. Hence
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2022 iii Paper 218 1 c Solution Created 2026-09-28 Updated 2026-10-03
The score equation is independent of , because is only a common factor. Fixing or estimating it therefore gives the same maximum-likelihood estimator .
Under the usual full-rank and regularity conditions,with evaluated consistently at the fitted means. Consequently every standard error from "mod2" is times the corresponding standard error computed with dispersion one in "mod1". In particular,
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2022 iii Paper 219 1 c Solution Created 2026-09-28 Updated 2026-10-03
Letand setThe within-galaxy contrasts contain no , so the parameter-dependent log-likelihood reduces toThe score equations give the maximum-likelihood estimatorsThe calibrator and Hubble-flow samples are independent, so both estimators are unbiased andThe Fisher information matrix for isHence : attains the multiparameter Cramer-Rao bound.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2022 ii Paper 1 29K d Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-09-25
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2023 ib Paper 4 17H b Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-10-03
Ignoring terms independent of , the log-likelihood isIts score function isSince , the interior critical point is the maximum, givingThe sum of independent Poisson distributions is Poisson with mean , soThus the maximum-likelihood estimator is also unbiased.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2023 iii Paper 207 2 c i Solution 2026-09-28
For each substudy define the log-odds treatment effectThe normal random-effects log-likelihood, up to an additive constant, isIts score equations giveThese are the maximum-likelihood estimators rather than the unbiased sample-variance estimator. At an interior solution with , the Hessian in is negative definite, which is the required second-order condition.
At , the expected Fisher information isRequiring it to exceed directly controls the large-sample variance of the maximum-likelihood estimator, approximately . Choose from the desired standard error, confidence-interval width, or power for clinically relevant alternatives, allowing for any planned significance level.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2023 iii Paper 218 1 a Solution 2026-09-28
For individual , let be the reported count, the gender indicator, and the minority indicator. The fitted Poisson regression isIts log-likelihood isThe maximum-likelihood estimator isHolding minority status fixed, changing the gender indicator from zero to one multiplies the fitted conditional expected value by . Thus the fitted mean count for men is about lower than that for women with the same minority status.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2023 iii Paper 218 3 c Solution 2026-09-28
For a likelihood with estimated parameters, the Akaike information criterion iswhere is the maximum-likelihood estimator. Among likelihoods for the same observed response and reference measure, smaller AIC estimates smaller expected out-of-sample Kullback-Leibler divergence up to a model-independent constant.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2023 ii Paper 2 5J Solution Created 2026-09-23 Updated 2026-09-25
The commands choose observations and predictors; generate a matrix of independent standard-normal values; generate independent binary random variables with success probability ; and report the observed number of successes, . The first
glm call then fits the Bernoulli logistic-regression modelThe prediction command returns the fitted response probabilities and sums them.The likelihood isAt the maximum-likelihood estimator, the intercept component of the score function isThereforeexactly, by the fitted-mean balance for logistic regression with an intercept.
The second fit uses probit regression,where is the standard normal distribution function. Its intercept score isa weighted residual equation. It does not imply , so exact equality is not expected. The output should nevertheless be close to : the data were generated with constant success probability independently of , so the fitted slopes should be small, the linear predictors should cluster near a common intercept, and the score weights should be nearly constant.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2024 iii Paper 207 6 b ii Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-09-25
Under a country-specific constant hazard survival model, let be the number of deaths and the total person-time at risk in country . The likelihood is proportional toso the maximum-likelihood estimator is . Test by a likelihood-ratio test, score test, or Wald test; equivalently, give a Poisson distribution with mean and test the country coefficient in a Poisson regression with offset .
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2024 iii Paper 218 4 d Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-09-25
A binary logistic regression setsand classifies by the sign of . Its unpenalized maximum-likelihood estimator minimizes the empirical logistic lossThe plotted data are complete separation data: there is a vector with every signed margin . For every finite , increasing strictly decreases each term of , and as . No finite parameter attains zero, so the unpenalized optimization has no solution.
Adding an penalty with , constraining , or using a finite stopping rule makes the problem attain a finite approximate solution. The penalized option is preferable because cross-validation can select the strength of regularization.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2025 iii Paper 219 1 e Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-10-03
Differentiating the log-likelihood gives the unique stationary pointIts Hessian is diagonal with entries , , and , so it is the unique maximum. The estimators are unbiased and have varianceswhich equal their Cramér-Rao lower bounds because the normal location statistics are efficient.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2026 iii Paper 218 5 c Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-09-25
The neural-network likelihood is nonconvex, so optimization can stop at a local optimum or saddle rather than a global maximum. One hundred epochs may be insufficient for convergence. Mini-batch gradient noise together with a fixed positive learning rate can keep the iterates fluctuating around a stationary point rather than reaching it exactly. Any of these prevents the final parameters from being exact maximum-likelihood estimators.