Pareto tail conditional scaling ($X\mid X\ge u\sim \mathrm{Pareto}(\alpha ,u),u\ge \beta$)

Conditioning a Pareto distribution on exceeding a threshold changes its minimum while preserving its shape parameter. For $u\ge \beta$ and $x\ge u$, the definition of conditional probability givesEquivalently, for $r\ge 1$,The ratio to the threshold has the same Pareto distribution at every admissible threshold.^[ref] For the chosen $\alpha =2$, $\beta =10$, only $1/4$ of outcomes exceed 20, but among those outcomes the probability of exceeding 40 is again $1/4$. When $\alpha >1$, the same identity gives conditional expectation $\mathbb{E}[X\mid X\ge u]=\alpha u/(\alpha -1)$.

This multiplicative scaling differs from the additive memoryless property of an exponential distribution. Indeed $Y=\log (X/\beta )$ has exponential distribution of rate $\alpha$, because $\mathbb{P}(Y>y)=e^{-\alpha y}$ for $y\ge 0$. Thus logarithms turn multiplication into addition and explain the scaling property. Conversely, if $U$ has uniform distribution on $(0,1)$, inverse transform sampling gives $X=\beta (1-U{)}^{-1/\alpha }$.

The excess $Z=X-u$ conditional on $X\ge u$ has survival function $(1+z/u{)}^{-\alpha }$ for $z\ge 0$. In the generalized Pareto distribution convention $\mathbb{P}(Z>z)=(1+\xi z/\sigma {)}^{-1/\xi }$, this means $\xi =1/\alpha$ and $\sigma =u/\alpha$. Here the excess starts at zero; the original Pareto distribution starts at $\beta >0$.