Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge / 2001 / iii / Paper 32 / 6

An Edgeworth expansion refines a central normal approximation using higher cumulants. Let $Y_i$ be independent and identically distributed, with mean $\mu$, positive variance ${\sigma }^2$, and cumulants ${\kappa }_r$. DefineThe logarithm of its characteristic function has the expansionExpanding the exponential adds the squared cubic term ${\gamma }_3^2(it{)}^6/(72n)$. Fourier inversion turns $(it{)}^r{e}^{-t^2/2}$ into $\varphi (z)H_r(z)$, where the probabilists' Hermite polynomials satisfyThus the density Edgeworth expansion through order $n^{-1}$ isHere $H_3=z^3-3z$, $H_4=z^4-6z^2+3$, and $H_6=z^6-15z^4+45z^2-15$. Since $(\varphi H_{r-1}{)}^{\prime }=-\varphi H_r$, the corresponding cumulative distribution function expansion isThese remainder statements require adequate moments and smooth nonlattice conditions allowing transform inversion and error control, not merely a formal cumulant expansion. The density version needs the corresponding local smoothness. A symmetric distribution has ${\gamma }_3=0$, removing the first correction. Truncation can produce negative densities or nonmonotone distribution functions far from the center; it is not automatically a uniformly reliable relative tail approximation. A lattice distribution needs its lattice correction.

A Laplace approximation instead approximates an integral dominated by a sharp maximum. Suppose $h$ has a unique interior maximizer $\hat{\theta }\in {\mathbb{R}}^d$, with $A=-h^{\prime \prime }(\hat{\theta })$ positive definite, and the integral is localized near that point. For smooth amplitude $g$,Set $\theta =\hat{\theta }+z/\sqrt{n}$. A Taylor expansion givesExpanding $g$ and integrating the resulting Gaussian integral givesUnder sufficient smoothness and localization the relative correction is $O(n^{-1})$: odd terms of order $n^{-1/2}$ integrate to zero over the limiting symmetric Gaussian region. Higher terms use derivatives of $h,g$ and Gaussian moments.

For a likelihood function with ${\ell }_n=nh$ and a smooth positive prior density, this gives the integrated likelihood approximationwhere $j=-{\ell }_n^{\prime \prime }$ is the observed information. Ratios of such integrals give posterior expectation by Laplace approximation; the same method is useful when integrating nuisance variables. Boundary maxima, singular Hessian matrices, nonlocalized tails and several dominant modes require altered formulas, with contributions summed when appropriate.

Both methods start with a quadratic Gaussian approximation and then retain higher-order terms. The Edgeworth series corrects a sampling distribution through its cumulants and Fourier inversion; Laplace's method corrects an integral through local derivatives at its dominant point. Neither should be confused with simply replacing a likelihood by a normalized posterior density.

Consider a regular $d$-parameter statistical model for which the data can locally be expressed as $(v,a)$, where $v=\hat{\theta }$ is the maximum-likelihood estimator and $a$ is a suitable exact or higher-order ancillary statistic. Write the log-likelihood as $\ell (\theta ;v,a)$, and letbe its fitted observed information. The P-star approximation to the conditional sampling density of $v$, given $a$, isThe normalizing factor is independent of $v$ and is chosen so the density integrates to one over the feasible estimator coordinates. Its leading Gaussian value is $(2\pi {)}^{-d/2}$, but exact normalization can change it. Both the fitted likelihood and the fitted information vary with $v$; the observed dataset is not held fixed while integrating over this sampling coordinate.

To see the structure, expand the likelihood difference for $v$ close to $\theta$. Its leading term is minus one half of the information-weighted quadratic displacement, while $|j(v){|}^{1/2}$ supplies the local density scale. This recovers the first-order multivariate normal distribution of an efficient maximum-likelihood estimator. The formula is invariant under smooth one-to-one parameter changes: at a likelihood maximum the score vanishes, so the Hessian transforms as a quadratic form. Its square-root determinant supplies exactly the Jacobian determinant required for the estimator density to transform.

There is a direct derivation in a full regular exponential family. Let $S$ be the sufficient statistic for an independent sample, with likelihoodThe maximum-likelihood equation is $s=n\nabla \kappa (v)$, and its derivative is $j(v)=n{\kappa }^{\prime \prime }(v)$. Applying a multivariate saddlepoint density approximation to $S$ givesChanging variables from $s$ to $v$ multiplies by $|ds/dv|=|j(v)|$, producing the displayed P-star form. In more general models, ancillary conditioning supplies the relevant local sample coordinates; an ancillary is not an arbitrary extra statistic.

For an illustrative exact case, take an independent sample from an exponential distribution with mean $\theta$, so $v=\bar{Y}$. The fitted observed information is $j(v)=n/v^2$, andThus P-star has density shape $v^{n-1}{\theta }^{-n}{e}^{-nv/\theta }$. Normalizing giveswhich is exactly the gamma distribution sampling density of the mean. Here sample ratios provide ancillary coordinates and are independent of the mean.

In suitable regular models the unnormalized leading construction has relative error of order $n^{-1}$, and higher-order ancillary constructions with normalization can attain relative order $n^{-3/2}$. Such accuracy needs the stated smoothness and ancillary hypotheses; it is not a universal consequence of asymptotic normality. The exact scale-model example is likewise a special property, not a general identity. The formula is useful for refined conditional inference, score distributions, and nuisance-likelihood adjustments, including modified profile likelihood. It describes a sampling density of the estimator, rather than a posterior density of the parameter.

A finite-dimensional exponential family has common dominating measure and densityHere $\eta$ is the natural parameter of an exponential family, and normalization determines the cumulant function of an exponential family $\kappa$. A full regular family lets $\eta$ vary over an open natural parameter domain. A curved exponential family restricts $\eta$ to a lower-dimensional submanifold, while a minimal representation removes redundant affine combinations of the statistic.

Differentiating the normalization under regularity givesConsequently $\kappa$ is convex and its Hessian is the Fisher information matrix in natural coordinates. For an independent size-$n$ sample, $S={\sum }_{i}T(Y_i)$ is a sufficient statistic: the joint density factors into ${\prod }_{i}h(y_i)$ times $\exp \{{\eta }^{\mathsf{T}}S-n\kappa (\eta )\}$, so the conditional law given $S$ loses its parameter dependence. An interior maximum-likelihood estimator solvesmatching empirical and theoretical sufficient-statistic means. Under minimality the Hessian is positive definite, so the log-likelihood is strictly concave; existence of an interior maximizer still needs the observed statistic to be in the appropriate interior convex support.

For a full open natural family, the canonical sufficient statistic is a complete statistic: if ${\mathbb{E}}_{\eta }g(S)=0$ throughout the open domain, exponential tilting about an interior point makes the Laplace transform of the integrable signed measure $g(s)P_{{\eta }_0}(ds)$ zero on a neighborhood. Transform uniqueness makes that measure zero, so $g(S)=0$ almost surely. This requires integrability under the family. It is not an automatic property of curved restrictions. The sufficient-statistic reduction, explicit information and cumulant identities make these families especially useful for exact and higher-order inference. Normal distributions, Poisson distributions and gamma distributions supply familiar examples.

A transformation model is built differently: a group acts on the sample and parameter spaces, and its probability laws satisfyIn a transitive model all laws are transforms of a fixed reference law. The location family is generated by translations, with density $f_{\mu }(y)=f_0(y-\mu )$. The positive-scale family has density $f_{\sigma }(y)={\sigma }^{-1}{f}_0(y/\sigma )$, and the location-scale family combines them asThe Jacobian factor is essential. For independent observations its power is ${\sigma }^{-n}$. The base density need not have moments, and a transformation model need not have fixed support.

An equivariant estimator respects the parameter action. With a well-defined equivariant fit $T(y)$ valued in the transformation group, the normalized sampleis a maximal invariant. Equivariance gives $a(gy)=a(y)$; if normalized samples agree, $y^{\prime }$ is obtained from $y$ by $T(y^{\prime })T(y{)}^{-1}$. In a transitive transformation model its law is parameter-free, so it is an ancillary statistic. For location and positive scale, centered standardized residuals provide this construction on nondegenerate samples. If the parameter action has a nontrivial stabilizer, normalization must retain its quotient action rather than pretending that a unique group element is determined.

This geometry motivates conditioning on an ancillary and using the P-star approximation for the fitted parameter. Ancillarity means parameter-free distribution; it does not by itself assert independence from the estimator. In a normal location model with known scale, the sample mean and centered residuals are independent by their joint Gaussian law and zero covariance. In an exponential scale model, the sample sum and its normalized proportions are independent, again an additional model property.

The two classes overlap but are distinct. A normal location-scale family is both an exponential family and a transformation model; an exponential mean family is both a one-dimensional natural exponential family and a scale model. A general Cauchy distribution location family is a transformation model without a fixed finite-dimensional regular exponential-family sufficient-statistic reduction. Exponential-family structure emphasizes sufficient statistics and natural-parameter convexity; transformation structure emphasizes equivariance, group orbits and ancillary reduction.