Past exam of the probability course of the University of Oxford / 2015 / 1

The sample maximum has cumulative distribution functionThe product $x^n$ follows from independence of random variables and the continuous uniform distribution of each observation. For every $x<1$, this cumulative distribution function tends to zero; for $x>1$ it equals one. These are exactly the values of the cumulative distribution function of the constant random variable $1$ at its continuity points. Therefore, by the definition of convergence in distribution,At $x=1$ the limiting cumulative distribution function is discontinuous, so the definition does not require checking that point, although $F_{M_n}(1)=1$ also holds.

Put $Z_n=n(1-M_n)$. Its survival function isFor each fixed $z\ge 0$, eventually $n\ge z$, and the exponential limit gives $(1-z/n{)}^n\to e^{-z}$. Thus its cumulative distribution function tends to $0$ for $z<0$ and to $1-e^{-z}$ for $z\ge 0$. This continuous limiting cumulative distribution function identifies the exponential distribution with rate one:This is the exponential endpoint limit of a uniform maximum: the gap from the upper endpoint is typically of order $1/n$, although the maximum itself approaches a constant.

The moment-generating function of a real random variable $X$ isfor real $t$ for which this expected value is finite. Because the integrand is nonnegative, the extended expected value is always defined, but it may equal $+\infty$. We always have $M_X(0)=1$; the usual uniqueness and convergence theorems require finiteness on an open interval containing zero. When this condition holds, derivatives at zero recover the moments, $M_X^{(r)}(0)=\mathbb{E}[X^r]$.

Using the probability mass function of the Poisson distribution and the power series of the exponential function,This moment-generating function of a Poisson distribution is finite for every real $t$. It also covers $\mu =0$, when $X=0$ with probability one and the moment-generating function is identically one.

Complete the square in the integral against the standard normal density:The remaining integral is one because its integrand is the probability density function of the normal distribution $N(t,1)$. Hence the moment-generating function of a standard normal variable is finite on the whole real line.

The Poisson process gives $N_k\sim \mathrm{Pois}(k)$, with expected value and variance both equal to $k$. Consequently $Y_k=(N_k-k)/\sqrt{k}$. Scaling and translating the argument in the moment-generating function of a Poisson distribution gives, for every real $t$,The centering term must remain inside the exponent: omitting it would leave a divergent first-order contribution.

For fixed real $t$, Taylor's theorem for the exponential function givesSubstituting into the previous moment-generating function,The continuity theorem for moment-generating functions states that, if the moment-generating functions of $Z_n$ and $Z$ are finite on a common open interval containing zero and $M_{Z_n}(t)\to M_Z(t)$ throughout that interval, then $Z_n\stackrel{\mathrm{d}}{\to }Z$. Here finiteness holds for all real $t$, and the limit is the moment-generating function of a standard normal variable. ThereforeThis proves the required instance of the Poisson central limit theorem directly from moment-generating functions; no appeal to a general central limit theorem is needed.

Write $A_k=N_{2k}-N_k$ and $B_k=N_k$. The stationary increments and independent increments of the Poisson process make $A_k$ and $B_k$ independent random variables, each with Poisson distribution of parameter $k$. ThusMultiplication of the two moment-generating functions givesThe odd terms cancel in Taylor's theorem, so $\log M_k(t)=t^2+O(k^{-1})$. The limit $e^{t^2}$ is the moment-generating function of a normal distribution with mean zero and variance two. The same continuity theorem for moment-generating functions therefore yieldsIn particular, the two equal-length increments must be separated before using independence: $N_{2k}$ and $N_k$ themselves are dependent.