Past exam of the probability, measure and martingales course of the University of Oxford / 2023 / 3 / b

Assume $X$ is square-integrable. Since $X$ and $Y$ have the same probability distribution, $Y$ is also square-integrable and $\mathbb{E}[Y^2]=\mathbb{E}[X^2]$. The product $XY$ is integrable by the Cauchy-Schwarz inequality.

We use the defining test-function identity for conditional expectation: for bounded $\mathcal{G}$-measurable $H$, $\mathbb{E}[XH]=\mathbb{E}[YH]$. Take $H=Y{1}_{\{|Y|\le m\}}$ and let $m\to \infty$. The dominated convergence theorem, with bounds $|XY|$ and $Y^2$, givesThis is the extension of the conditional expectation pull-out identity to this square-integrable multiplier. ConsequentlyA nonnegative random variable with zero expectation is zero almost surely. HenceGeometrically, this is the equality case in the L2 space orthogonal projection interpretation of conditional expectation.

The function ${\varphi }_a(t)=t\wedge a$ is a concave function, and $X\wedge a$ is integrable since $|X\wedge a|\le |X|+a$. The concave form of the conditional Jensen inequality givesThe random variables $X$ and $Y$ have the same probability distribution, so $\mathbb{E}[X\wedge a]=\mathbb{E}[Y\wedge a]$. Using the law of total expectation, the nonnegative difference between the right and left sides of the inequality has zero expectation. It must vanish almost surely. ThereforeThe equality comes from the distributional assumption as well as the conditional Jensen inequality.

We first establish the lower truncation identity as well. The pair $(-X,-Y)$ has the same hypotheses as $(X,Y)$, because conditional expectation is linear and negation preserves equality of probability distributions. Apply part (ii) to this pair and multiply by $-1$ to getFor every real $t$,Using this identity, part (ii), the lower truncation identity, and linearity of conditional expectation givesIn particular the argument does not assume that a function obtained by scalar clipping is a convex function or a concave function.

Write $C_a(t)=(t\wedge a)\vee (-a)$. The bounded random variables $C_a(X)$ and $C_a(Y)$ have the same probability distribution, and the displayed identity identifies the latter as the conditional expectation of the former. They are square-integrable, so part (i) gives $C_a(X)=C_a(Y)$ almost surely. Take $a=1,2,\dots$ and discard the countable union of exceptional null sets. At every remaining outcome, let $a\to \infty$ to obtainThus conditional expectation preserving a distribution forces equality even when only integrability is assumed.

Let $\mathcal{G}=T^{-1}(\mathcal{F})=\{T^{-1}(A):A\in \mathcal{F}\}$. Inverse images commute with complements and countable unions, so this is a sub-sigma-algebra of $\mathcal{F}$. The random variable $X\circ T$ is $\mathcal{G}$-measurable.

The assumption $\mathbb{P}\circ T^{-1}=\mathbb{P}$ says that $T$ is a measure-preserving transformation. Consequently $X\circ T$ has the same probability distribution as $X$ and is integrable. It also implies $\mathbb{E}[W\circ T]=\mathbb{E}[W]$ for every integrable random variable $W$, first for indicator functions, then for simple functions, and then by positive and negative approximation.

To identify a conditional expectation, take any $A\in \mathcal{F}$. The assumed identity with the bounded random variable $Z=1_A$ givesEvery member of $\mathcal{G}$ has the displayed form $T^{-1}(A)$, so this verifies all defining conditional expectation identities. ThereforeApply part (iii), since this conditional expectation has the same probability distribution as $X$. We concludeThis is invariance from integral duality for a measure-preserving transformation; neither invertibility of $T$ nor a second moment of $X$ is required.