Central contribution to kurtosis 2026-10-14
For a standard score and , split kurtosis into the contribution from within standard deviations of the mean and the contribution from outside:The indicator function selects the central outcomes. The bound follows directly from there. Thus : when kurtosis is large, any fixed central range contributes a small fraction. This is a precise reason to emphasize extreme standard scores rather than peak height.[ref]
Kurtosis as Peakedness, 1905 – 2014. R.I.P. by Peter H. Westfall. §5, Why Tails Mostly Determine Kurtosis, inequality (1) and following fixed-h argument
For the rare-outlier three-point distribution with , and . At the other endpoint , all probability mass lies at , so : central dominance is possible when kurtosis is small. More generally, the Cauchy-Schwarz inequality gives ; the equally weighted outcomes attain this minimum.
Gaussian random variable Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-10-14
A Gaussian random variable is a random variable whose probability distribution is a normal distribution. For , write with a standard normal random variable ; conversely, standardization of a normal random variable recovers . For example, has mean , standard deviation , and variance . The outcome corresponds to standard score , one standard deviation above the mean.
Some definitions also allow a Gaussian random variable with . This means almost surely, with variance zero and probability distribution equal to the Dirac measure . It has no probability density function with respect to Lebesgue measure: . The positive-scale density formula and division by apply only when . MIT's constructive definition explicitly includes the constant case. [ref]
https://ocw.mit.edu/courses/6-436j-fundamentals-of-probability-fall-2018/ceb423b6a703abd60429367b733f45bf_MIT6_436JF18_lec14.pdf. MIT 6.436, Lecture 14, §2: degenerate normal distributions
. Kurtosis Created 2026-10-06 Updated 2026-10-14
For a real random variable with mean , finite positive variance , and finite fourth moment, kurtosis is the fourth central moment divided by the square of the variance:The standard score measures distance from the mean in standard deviations. Its fourth power gives a value ten standard deviations away a weight inside the expected value. Thus a small probability mass far from the mean can strongly affect kurtosis. It is useful for describing the contribution of extreme standard scores, but does not by itself describe the height or shape of a probability density function near its peak.[ref]
Kurtosis as Peakedness, 1905 – 2014. R.I.P. by Peter H. Westfall. §2, Terminology, definition of κ; §4, counterexamples with different peaks; §5, central and tail contributions
The normal distribution has kurtosis . A random scale can increase kurtosis even when the conditional distribution is normal. A constant random variable has zero variance, so this ratio is undefined. If the variance is finite and positive but the fourth central moment is infinite, the ratio can be written in an extended sense; it is not a finite kurtosis. If the variance itself is infinite or the mean is undefined, the displayed normalization is unavailable.
Rare-outlier three-point distribution 2026-10-14
For , put probability mass at zero and at each of and . This symmetric probability distribution has mean zero. Its second and fourth moments are both , because the nonzero outcomes have square and fourth power equal to one:For the kurtosis is ; for it is . In the latter case of the probability mass is at zero, yet all of the fourth central moment comes from the remaining . The standard score takes values and , with variance one. Each nonzero outcome contributesto kurtosis. At , the two rare outcomes are ten standard deviations from the mean, and their contributions are .
Every member has finite support of a probability distribution, so all its moments are finite. Nevertheless, kurtosis becomes arbitrarily large as approaches zero: high kurtosis does not require an unbounded support of a probability distribution or a heavy-tailed distribution. At the variance vanishes and kurtosis is undefined. At this discrete probability distribution even has the normal distribution value and excess kurtosis zero, so those values do not establish a normal distribution.
Ridge regression Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-10-14
Ridge regression fits a linear regression model while penalizing the size of its slope regression coefficients. For a fixed design matrix containing the slope predictors, observed responses , and an unpenalized regression intercept , the objective isHere is the all-ones vector, and is the squared Euclidean norm of the slopes alone. The first term is the residual sum of squares; the second implements regularization. No random-error assumption is needed to define this fit. The convention is a summed squared-error loss: writing the objective as gives the same fit when .[ref]
Modern regression 1: Ridge regression. slides 5 and 7: summed squared-error objective and unpenalized intercept
For an exact example, reuse the constructed pairs from linear regression. Their sample means are and , and the centered cross-products are and . ThusThe ordinary least squares line has slope and residual sum of squares . At , ridge regression has slope , regression intercept , and residual sum of squares ; at these become , , and . Every line passes through : the penalty reduces the slope while retaining the response sample mean.
The computational benefit is visible after predictor centering. Write for the design matrix with each column's sample mean subtracted, and . The unpenalized intercept in ridge regression gives , and the closed-form ridge regression estimator solvesFor any nonzero vector and , . This positive-definite matrix is therefore invertible even when lacks full column rank, including repeated columns or . The unique penalized slopes resolve the ambiguity of rank-deficient ordinary least squares; they do not supply evidence about slope directions absent from the data. This makes ridge regression useful for multicollinearity.[ref]
High-Dimensional Regression: Ridge. p. 1, equations (1)–(2): uniqueness for positive penalty regardless of design rank
Predictor centering and scaling serve different purposes. Centering handles the free regression intercept. Scaling determines what counts as a large slope: replacing by changes its coefficient to for the same predictions, changing its contribution to an unweighted penalty. A common convention forms standard scores using each nonconstant predictor's sample standard deviation , then penalizes slopes in those coordinates. Since , this is the weighted penalty in the original units. Constant columns have and must be removed before this scaling. Scaling is a modelling choice; equal penalties in original units and in standardized units define different fits.[ref]
Modern regression 1: Ridge regression. slide 7: center predictors, leave the intercept free and scale predictors to sample variance one
The singular value decomposition explains the shrinkage. If is the compact decomposition using the positive singular values , with columns of , thenThe principal-component shrinkage by ridge regression factors are between and : directions with small singular values are damped most. As , the fitted values approach ; the vanishing-penalty ridge limit recovers the ordinary least squares fitted vector as , even if the slope estimates at zero penalty are nonunique. The covariance and bias of a ridge regression estimator describes the resulting bias-variance tradeoff. A penalty can reduce variance of an estimator while introducing bias of an estimator; the unbounded directional risk of fixed ridge shrinkage rules out a uniform improvement for a fixed positive penalty over all possible signals.[ref]
For a second exact construction, choose a centered orthonormal set of three vectors,and set and . The squared singular values are and . At , the fitted coordinates along are , retaining and of their ordinary least squares values . At they become , retaining and . The unfittable component contributes to every residual sum of squares, giving total values , , and at penalties . These are constructed fits, not measured prediction results.
Exact synthetic ridge shrinkage retains the strong singular direction longer than the weak one
. Details. The penalty is a hyperparameter, so fitting slopes at a fixed value and selecting that value are separate tasks. Use a validation set or K-fold cross-validation to compare candidate penalties by held-out squared-error loss. In each split, compute predictor sample means and scales from that split's training data, apply the same transformation to its validation set, and refit the slopes; using held-out information in preprocessing introduces data leakage. Minimum training residual sum of squares cannot select useful shrinkage: ordinary least squares already attains the smallest possible value.[ref]
Model selection and validation 1: Cross-validation. slides 5–8 and 11–14: tuning for prediction, training error and refitting on each training fold
After model selection, refit on all training data with the selected penalty. A separate test set or nested cross-validation assesses the entire selection procedure; a low selected validation score alone is no performance guarantee.[ref]On Over-fitting in Model Selection and Subsequent Selection Bias in Performance Evaluation by Gavin C. Cawley and others. pp. 2079–2080: selection as part of fitting and nested assessment
Standard normal distribution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-10-14
The standard normal distribution is : the normal distribution with mean zero, variance one and standard deviation one. Its standard normal density integrates to one; its standard normal distribution function records the area accumulated from to a threshold. The distinction matters: , , and for a standard normal random variable .
For a toy measurement , leave the measurement unit unspecified. The standardization of a normal random variable converts into standard scores . Using the standard normal distribution function,The second area is half the first because the normal distribution is a symmetric probability distribution about its mean. The numerical heights differ: , yet the corresponding shaded areas are equal because in the change of variables.
Standard score 2026-10-14
A standard score expresses an outcome as a signed number of standard deviations from a mean , assuming . It is a dimensionless quantity. For a random variable with finite positive variance , has mean zero and variance one; it has a standard normal distribution when has a normal distribution, but centering and scaling alone do not make other probability distributions normal. [ref]
https://ocw.mit.edu/courses/18-05-introduction-to-probability-and-statistics-spring-2022/mit18_05_s22_class06-prep-b.pdf. MIT 18.05, Reading 6b, §5.1: standardization
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