Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2019 iii Paper 219 1 c Solution 2026-10-03
Under homoskedasticity, writeThen and . Both are unbiased estimators, and their covariance matrix isIndeed the Fisher information isand its inverse is exactly the displayed covariance matrix. The estimators therefore attain the multivariate Cramer-Rao bound and are efficient estimators.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2021 ib Paper 1 6H c Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-09-25
The estimator is unbiased for because the independent random variables satisfy . Given , all placements of the successes are equally likely, soThus the Rao-Blackwellized estimator isIt is unbiased by the tower property. Since and , the event has positive probability, and conditionally on it takes both zero and one with positive probability. Hence , so the new estimator has strictly smaller variance.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2022 iii Paper 219 1 c Solution Created 2026-09-28 Updated 2026-10-03
Letand setThe within-galaxy contrasts contain no , so the parameter-dependent log-likelihood reduces toThe score equations give the maximum-likelihood estimatorsThe calibrator and Hubble-flow samples are independent, so both estimators are unbiased andThe Fisher information matrix for isHence : attains the multiparameter Cramer-Rao bound.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2022 iii Paper 219 4 a i Solution 2026-09-28
Using Bayes theorem and the fact that the prior is proper,Thus is an unbiased estimator of , and the Harmonic mean estimator of Bayesian model evidence is . The reciprocal is not itself generally unbiased, though it is consistent when the strong law of large numbers applies.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2023 ib Paper 4 17H a Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-10-03
Write the linear mean model asThe errors are independent but heteroscedastic. Minimizing the unweighted residual sum of squaresgives the normal equationThus, provided ,Since ,Hence it is an unbiased estimator. This is the least-squares part of the estimators for a Poisson exposure model.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2023 ii Paper 1 13J ii Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-09-25
Because is an orthogonal projection of rank ,It follows that Mallows Cp satisfieswhere the last equality is part (i). Thus is an unbiased estimator of the independent-copy prediction error, as summarized by the unbiased prediction-error identity for ordinary least squares.
Residual estimate of Gaussian noise variance 2026-10-06
For a correctly specified full-rank fixed-design Gaussian linear regression with , dividing the residual sum of squares by the residual degrees of freedom gives an unbiased estimator of the noise variance. The projection removes the whole deterministic mean, so the numerator's expectation is . A misspecified subset model need not have this property.
Residual standard error 2026-10-06
In a full-rank normal linear model with observations and mean coefficients, the residual standard error estimates the common error standard deviation. Its square is the unbiased estimator ; the square root itself is not generally unbiased. It measures unexplained response variation, whereas a regression coefficient's standard error measures uncertainty in that coefficient.
Unbiased Gaussian projection risk estimate 2026-10-06
For and a fixed orthogonal projection matrix of rank , the displayed expression is an unbiased estimator of the mean-vector prediction risk whenever is an unbiased estimator of . Independence of its two terms is unnecessary. Comparing fixed models yields the Mallows Cp penalty, but minimizing unbiased estimates does not preserve unbiasedness after selection.
Uncentered empirical second-moment matrix 2026-10-06
The uncentered empirical second-moment matrix averages the outer products of the observations. Its expected value is . It is an unbiased estimator of the covariance matrix when the population expected value is known to be zero. It differs from a sample covariance matrix centered at the sample mean.
For a normal distribution with unrestricted and unknown , an integrable data-only unbiased estimator of the mean-vector prediction risk of a fixed rank- orthogonal projection matrix exists exactly when . To prove necessity, randomize the mean by independent Gaussian variance : conditioning adds to the squared bias term, whereas the marginal variance identity would add . When , the residual sum of squares itself is unbiased.
U-statistic 2026-10-07
A U-statistic averages a symmetric function of distinct sample observations over all unordered -tuples. For independent and identically distributed observations it is an unbiased estimator of . Omitting repeated indices can remove diagonal contributions in quadratic plug-in estimators.