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For events with $P(B)>0$, the conditional probability is $P(A\mid B)=P(A\cap B)/P(B)$. Applying the definition in both orders gives Bayes theorem:Conditionally on $N=n$, independent fair tosses give a binomial distribution for the head count, so $P(H=1\mid N=n)=n{2}^{-n}$. The joint probability mass function is consequentlyUse the law of total probability and the differentiated geometric series, ${\sum }_{n\ge 1}n{r}^n=r/(1-r{)}^2$, to obtain $P(H=1)=4/9$. The posterior coin count after exactly one head is thereforeThese probabilities sum to one by the same series identity. The conditioning weights possible coin counts by their likelihood of producing exactly one head.

Use the standard infinite-population slotted ALOHA model with independent fresh arrivals with Poisson distribution $Y_t\sim \mathrm{Poisson}(\lambda )$, $\lambda >0$. Newly arrived packets attempt in the next slot. Given $N_t=n$ old backlogged packets, each independently attempts with fixed probability $f$, so the retransmission count has binomial distribution $R_t\sim \mathrm{Binomial}(n,f)$, independent of $Y_t$ and earlier random choices. Let $Z_t$ record whether $R_t+Y_t$ is zero, one, or at least two. A single transmission succeeds and departs; a collision makes every transmitted packet remain. ThereforeOnly the present backlog determines the law of the next independent choices, so $N_t$ is a time-homogeneous Markov chain.

For $0<f<1$, put $q=1-f$ and $b_n=nf{q}^{n-1}$, with $b_0=0$. Its nonzero transition probabilities areFor example, a single fresh arrival leaves the backlog unchanged only if no old packet transmits; if an old packet also transmits, that fresh arrival becomes a new backlogged packet. These cases explain the extra diagonal term and the suppressed one-step increase at $n=0$. At $f=1$ the same formulas hold with $q^0=1$, $b_1=1$ and $b_n=0$ for $n\ne 1$.

Here is an almost-sure proof of permanent collisions in constant-probability slotted ALOHA for $0<f<1$, rather than just a positive-drift heuristic. For $\theta >0$, the conditional exponential increment isAs $n\to \infty$ this tends to a number strictly below one. Choose $M\ge 1$ so the expression is at most one for $n\ge M$. Stopping $e^{-\theta N_t}$ when the chain first enters $\{0,\dots ,M-1\}$ gives a nonnegative supermartingale. Downward jumps have size at most one, so it hits at $M-1$. Optional sampling theorem for a supermartingale, first at bounded times and then by a limit, yields the exponential-supermartingale escape boundThis is an irreducible Markov chain: every positive state can successively decrease to zero, and from zero Poisson batches reach every state at least two, with state one then reached from two. An irreducible recurrent Markov chain would hit that finite set with probability one from every state, contradicting the bound. Hence every state is a transient state, every finite set is visited only finitely often, and $N_t\to \infty$ almost surely.

The conditional success probability is $p(N_t)=e^{-\lambda }(b_{N_t}+\lambda q^{N_t})\to 0$. The centered success indicators form a martingale difference sequence with bounded increments. The strong law for martingales with bounded increments givesThe conditional means have Cesàro average zero, while the strong law of large numbers gives $t^{-1}{\sum }_{u<t}{Y}_u\to \lambda$. Therefore $N_t/t\to \lambda$ almost surely. Finallydecays exponentially along this linear backlog growth. Its sum over $t$ is almost surely finite. The Conditional Borel-Cantelli lemma then implies that only finitely many slots have zero or one transmission. Thus $\boxed{\mathbb{P}(\exists J:Z_t=\ast \text{ for every }t\ge J)=1}$. At $f=1$, a fresh batch of size at least two eventually occurs, after which at least two old packets retransmit in every slot, giving the same conclusion directly.

The qualification $f>0$ is essential: if $f=0$, then $Z_t$ depends only on the independent Poisson arrivals, and zero- or one-arrival slots occur infinitely often. Positive mean arrival rate alone, without the Poisson model or another assumption allowing collisions to develop, would also be insufficient: Bernoulli fresh arrivals and initial backlog zero never collide.

One alternative is binary exponential backoff: after $k$ collisions a packet selects a waiting time uniformly from $\{0,\dots ,2^k-1\}$ and tries when its counter expires. Its attempt behavior depends on its collision history, rather than a common constant $f$. Another possibility, if a backlog estimate ${\hat{N}}_t$ is available, is to set the attempt probability near $1/{\hat{N}}_t$, keeping the offered retransmission count near one. These descriptions illustrate adaptive access rules; they do not assert that every backoff variant is stable at arbitrary load.

The two independent binomial distributions give fitted event probabilities $24/99$ and $12/100$. Their odds ratio and log odds ratio areUsing the log odds ratio variance from a two-by-two table,The stated normal approximation and quantile approximately two give the confidence intervalExponentiation gives the corresponding odds ratio interval $(1.0824,5.0876)$. Its lower endpoint exceeds one.

It suffices to prove the assertion after replacing $\omega$ by $\min \{\omega ,\sqrt{\log n}\}$: that replacement gives a tighter interval. Thus assume $\omega \to \infty$ and $\omega =o(\log n)$, and putAt $p_{-}$, let $J$ count isolated vertices in $L$. The same indicator random variable calculation as for all isolated vertices givesBy the Chebyshev inequality, $J>0$ with high probability. Since $\ell \ge 2$ eventually, the marked vertices are then not all connected.

At $p_{+}$, the logarithmic-regime giant component result applies with $k=2$ and any fixed ${\gamma }_0\in (1/3,1/2)$. Its unique giant component misses $(1+o(1))n^{1/2}{e}^{-\omega /4}$ vertices. On the event that it misses at most twice that number, exchangeability makes the missed vertex set uniform conditional on its size. A union bound therefore givesThus all of $L$ is connected at $p_{+}$ with high probability.

For the uniform random graph process, assign uniform labels to the edges of the complete graph as independent random variables and reveal them in label order. The binomial random graph $G(n,p)$ is the prefix containing the $M(p)$ labels at most $p$, where $M(p)$ has a binomial distribution with parameters $N=\left(\genfrac{}{}{0ex}{}{n}{2}\right)$ and $p$. Its variance at $p_{\pm }$ is $O(n\log n)$, whereas the gap between $\mathbb{E}M(p_{\pm })$ and the relevant endpoint $m_{\pm }$ is $(1+o(1))\omega n/8$. The Chebyshev inequality gives $M(p_{-})\ge m_{-}$ and $M(p_{+})\le m_{+}$ with high probability, with harmless integer rounding. The monotone graph property that all marked vertices are connected now impliesThe marked-set connectivity threshold is lower than the threshold for connecting every vertex, because only about $\sqrt{n}$ specified vertices need to avoid the small graph components.