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Super-Kamiokande used $535$ days ($33.0$ kiloton-years) and $22.5$ fiducial kilotons of water. Inner photomultiplier times and charges reconstructed interactions; the outer anticoincidence detector vetoed entering particles and marked exits. Contained single-ring events used likelihood classification: Electron particle showers blur rings; muons give sharper edges. The $1.33\mathrm{GeV}$ visible-energy sample division is not a universal detection threshold. Simulation estimated classification efficiency above about $98\%$, distinct from total detection efficiency; stopping muons and decay Electrons checked classification.^[ref]

Downward neutrinos travel about $15\mathrm{km}$; upward ones about $13000\mathrm{km}$. The multi-GeV muon-like up/down asymmetry was $-0.296\pm 0.048\pm 0.010$; Electron-like events lacked a comparable effect. Calibration constrained directional bias. This was disappearance evidence; tau neutrino appearance was untagged and sterile conversion remained possible.^[ref]

Writing $U$ and $D$ for the selected upward and downward populations, the asymmetry is $A=(U-D)/(U+D)$: a negative value means fewer upward events. An absolute source-normalization error alone rescales both populations and leaves this ratio unchanged. A direction-dependent response error need not cancel.

For a deliberately simplified neutrino oscillation calculation, take two neutrino flavors related to two mass eigenstates by a real rotation matrix with angle $\theta$. A quantum superposition acquires different phases during propagation; projecting back onto the initial neutrino flavor gives the probabilityHere $L$ is path length and $E$ is neutrino energy; the numerical coefficient incorporates unit conversion.

The paper states the corresponding conversion formula.^[ref]

The path dependence has a geometrical origin. In an original spherical-Earth model, let $R$ be the radius and $h$ a fixed production height, neglecting detector depth. Let $\Theta$ be the zenith distance of the direction in the sky from which the neutrino arrives, so $c=\cos \Theta =+1$ means downward propagation. The backward ray from detector to production obeys $R^2+L^2+2RLc=(R+h{)}^2$. Its positive solution isThus $L(+1)=h$ and $L(-1)=2R+h$. The calculation explains why opposite directions test very different baselines, rather than attributing every observed direction to the same travel distance. Actual production heights and the angle between the outgoing charged lepton and incoming neutrino smear that relationship.

For an original chosen example, set $\theta =\pi /4$ and $\Delta m^2=2.5\times 10^{-3}{\mathrm{eV}}^2$. At $E=1\mathrm{GeV}$, $L=20\mathrm{km}$ gives $P_{\mu \mu }\simeq 0.9960$, while $L=500\mathrm{km}$ gives $P_{\mu \mu }\simeq 0.000279$. The first minimum is at $L/E\simeq 494.7km/GeV$. These are stipulated inputs, not a fit to the 1998 data. A broad distribution of true $L/E$, together with energy and directional uncertainty, smooths the sharp minima.

A direct amplitude check makes the mechanism explicit. DefineThen $S_{11}={\cos }^2\theta +{\sin }^2\theta e^{-2i\phi }$. Taking its squared absolute value yields the displayed survival formula because $1-\cos (2\phi )=2{\sin }^2\phi$. Unitarity gives $|S_{11}{|}^2+|S_{21}{|}^2=1$: disappearance from one channel becomes conversion to the other within this closed model.

This illustration does not describe all solar neutrino propagation. Coherent forward scattering in matter changes the effective propagation operator, and three active neutrino flavors require a larger mixing description. Even in the simplified model, neutrino oscillation measures a squared-mass difference; it does not determine the absolute neutrino mass.