Kolmogorov-Smirnov test 2026-10-14
The one-sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov test checks goodness of fit by comparing an empirical distribution function with a specified cumulative distribution function . Its Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic is the largest vertical gap anywhere between the two curves. Every threshold asks the same concrete question: what proportion of the observations are at or below it, and what probability does the proposed probability distribution assign there? A large discrepancy supplies evidence against the null hypothesis.
For example, four stipulated observations compared with the uniform distribution on give . Just before , only two observations have been counted, so the empirical distribution function approaches , while approaches . The Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic section calculates every jump-side gap. These are exact illustrative numbers, not experimental measurements or a claim of statistical significance.
The ordinary one-sample calibration assumes independent and identically distributed real observations and a simple hypothesis , with a continuous function fixed before inspecting these observations. All statistical parameters of must be specified.[ref] Under that null hypothesis, the probability integral transform gives with the uniform distribution on , retaining independence. Consequently the sampling distribution of depends on the sample size , but not on the particular continuous . This is the useful sense in which the calibration is distribution-free.
For the exponential distribution of rate one, for . Take for the four stipulated above. The probability integral transform changes the horizontal coordinates but preserves both the order statistics and their cumulative heights, so the same Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic appears on both scales. More generally, for continuous , the jump-side formulas depend only on . Strict increase everywhere is unnecessary: intervals on which is constant have probability zero under the null hypothesis. This explains the invariance without assuming a strictly positive probability density function.
The probability integral transform preserves the Kolmogorov-Smirnov gap on exponential and uniform scales
. The same four stipulated points are shown as on the left and on the right. Open circles indicate left limits of the empirical distribution function, filled circles its values. The gap is approached from below the third observation on both scales. Details.The observed Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic is a discrepancy, whereas its p-value is a tail probability under the null hypothesis:Here is computed from a fresh sample of the same sample size. Choose a significance level before the test and reject when the calibrated p-value is at most . The value alone supplies neither a p-value nor a rejection decision. Failure to reject does not establish that the null hypothesis is true. A finite-sample calibration and the asymptotic Kolmogorov-Smirnov theorem are distinct; a cutoff for must be rescaled before use with .[ref]
Fitting statistical parameters on the tested observations replaces by the random . The resulting transformed observations need not be independent and identically distributed uniforms, so the ordinary reference law fails. The Lilliefors test addresses a particular fitted normal distribution. More general parametric bootstrap calibration must simulate from the fitted statistical model and repeat the fitting in every replicate; holding the fitted statistical parameters fixed during those comparisons calibrates a different procedure. Such a parametric bootstrap requires its own validity justification rather than inheriting exactness from the simple-null test.
For a discrete probability distribution, is generally not uniform. Equal observations also arise from rounding, so tied data require a calibration that accounts for the discrete probability distribution or the rounding rule. The discrepancy remains meaningful, but continuous-null p-values are not automatically valid. Statistical dependence likewise changes the reference law. The two-sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov test compares two empirical distribution functions and has a different calibration.[ref]
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2012 iii Paper 37 4 b Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-07
The saturated model estimates each Poisson mean separately as , permitting the boundary value zero when . Subtracting fitted from saturated log-likelihood gives the Poisson deviancewith . A zero observation contributes . If the model includes an intercept, the score equation gives , so the summed linear terms cancel; the unsimplified expression applies generally.
For goodness of fit, the null hypothesis is that the specified independent Poisson mean model is correct; the alternative is an unrestricted collection of means. When a quadratic likelihood approximation is valid, for example with fixed and large expected counts, has approximately a chi-squared distribution with statistical degrees of freedom. Reject for a large upper-tail deviance. Merely increasing the number of sparse observations does not make this saturated-model reference reliable: the alternative dimension also increases. With small fitted means, replication-based checks or a parametric bootstrap are more defensible. This qualification concerns the absolute goodness-of-fit deviance; a fixed-dimensional nested likelihood-ratio comparison can have a better chi-squared approximation.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2024 iii Paper 218 1 b Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-09-25
For the Poisson variance function , the code computes the Pearson chi-squared statisticand the Pearson dispersion estimatorThe first quantity measures goodness of fit; the second estimates the dispersion parameter, which equals one in a correctly specified Poisson regression. A standard rough calculation substitutes the residual deviance for the Pearson statistic and givesIf the reported upper-tail probability is inverted numerically, the actual Pearson statistic used by the code is about , giving . Either calculation reveals severe overdispersion.
