Past exam of the probability, measure and martingales course of the University of Oxford / 2023 / 2

The sigma-algebra generated by a random variable $X$ is the smallest sigma-algebra on $\Omega$ making $X$ a measurable function into $(\mathbb{R},\mathcal{B}(\mathbb{R}))$. Equivalently, it is the intersection of all sigma-algebras containing the inverse images $X^{-1}(C)$ of Borel sets $C$.

Let $\mathcal{D}=\{X^{-1}(C):C\in \mathcal{B}(\mathbb{R})\}$. This collection is already a sigma-algebra: $X^{-1}(\mathbb{R})=\Omega$,The right-hand sets are in $\mathcal{D}$, since the Borel sigma-algebra is closed under the indicated operations. Any sigma-algebra making $X$ measurable must contain every member of $\mathcal{D}$. Conversely $\mathcal{D}$ makes $X$ measurable by definition. HenceThis equality holds exactly as a collection of sets, without completing the sigma-algebra.

We prove the Doob-Dynkin lemma here by simple function approximation. Choose $C<\infty$ such that $|Z|\le C$ everywhere, and letEach $Z_m$ is a finite-valued $\sigma (X)$-measurable function and $Z_m\to Z$ pointwise. Write its level sets as $A_{m,j}$, with associated values $z_{m,j}$. By part (i), choose Borel sets $D_{m,j}$ with $A_{m,j}=X^{-1}(D_{m,j})$. Define the Borel measurable functionsAlthough the chosen $D_{m,j}$ need not partition all of $\mathbb{R}$, their inverse images do partition $\Omega$, so $g_m(X)=Z_m$ exactly.

Apply scalar clipping to each $g_m$ with bounds $[-C-1,C+1]$, preserving this equality, and define $g(x)={\mathrm{limsup}}_m{g}_m(x)$. A bounded limit superior of Borel measurable functions is a finite Borel measurable function. At every $\omega \in \Omega$ the limit of a sequence exists and givesThus the factorization is exact for a bounded, exactly $\sigma (X)$-measurable function. If hypotheses are instead given only up to null sets, the corresponding conclusion is a factorization holding almost surely after choosing a representative.

For this part and part (c), take $X$ to be $[0,1]$-valued everywhere. The uniform distribution gives $\mathbb{P}(X=1)=0$, but the paper's expression for $Z_n$ is undefined there because $X_n+2^{-n}>1$. Define $Z_n=0$ on $\{X=1\}$. Keep $X_n=\lfloor 2^{n}X\rfloor /2^n$ exactly as printed, including $X_n=1$ on that null set; this preserves the exact sigma-algebra equality in part (ii). Every slope formula below is asserted on $\{X<1\}$, hence almost surely.

The floor function gives the deterministic boundfor every outcome, including $X=1$. Thus all three convergence assertions hold: there is pointwise, and hence almost sure convergence, as well as convergence in probability and convergence in L2. In detail, for $\epsilon >0$ the probability $\mathbb{P}(|X-X_n|>\epsilon )$ is zero as soon as $2^{-n}\le \epsilon$; alsoThe uniform distribution even gives the exact second moment of the error by integrating over the dyadic partition:

Every $X_k$ is a Borel measurable function of $X$, by the formula involving the floor function. ThusConversely, part (i) gives the everywhere identity $X={\lim }_{k\to \infty }{X}_k$. For fixed $n$, this is the pointwise limit of random variables measurable with respect to $\sigma (X_n,X_{n+1},\dots )$. Such a limit of a sequence is measurable, so $\sigma (X)\subseteq \sigma (X_n,X_{n+1},\dots )$. ConsequentlyThese are increasing-precision observations even when the first finitely many are discarded; they do not behave like the independent random variables whose tail sigma-algebra appears in Question 1(b).

A family $({\xi }_i{)}_{i\in I}$ of integrable random variables is uniformly integrable whenThe Lipschitz condition gives, on $\{X<1\}$,Our chosen zero value on $\{X=1\}$ satisfies the same bound. Hence the random variables $(Z_n)$ are integrable, and for $K\ge L$ every tail expectation in the definition vanishes. Therefore the family is uniformly integrable.

For $1\le j\le n$, repeated use of the floor function identity givesThus the filtration satisfies ${\mathcal{F}}_n=\sigma (X_n)$. Each positive-probability atom of a sigma-algebra here has the formwith probability $2^{-n}$; $\{X=1\}$ is a possible additional null set atom. Averaging over each dyadic interval gives a versionFor a globally defined version of the right side, assign any value, for example zero, on $\{X=1\}$.

Indeed, the displayed random variable is ${\mathcal{F}}_n$-measurable and bounded by $\sup |h|$. On each $A_{n,k}$ its integral isby the uniform distribution. Every member of ${\mathcal{F}}_n$ is a union of the displayed sets and the possible zero-probability atom. Summing these identities therefore verifies the defining conditional expectation property on all of ${\mathcal{F}}_n$.

Each $Z_n$ is a bounded Borel measurable function of $X_n$, including the specified value at $X_n=1$. Therefore $(Z_n)$ is an adapted process for $({\mathcal{F}}_n)$ and consists of integrable random variables.

Fix an atom of a sigma-algebra in ${\mathcal{F}}_n$ with positive probability, corresponding to the dyadic interval $[u,u+\delta )$, with $\delta =2^{-n}$. By the uniform distribution, each half has conditional probability $1/2$. The conditional expectation of $Z_{n+1}$ on that atom is thereforeThe middle values cancel. On the zero-probability atom the conditional expectation can be chosen as zero, agreeing with our version of $Z_n$. Henceso $(Z_n)$ is a martingale. This is the dyadic slope martingale associated with the Lipschitz function $f$.

The uniformly integrable martingale convergence theorem states that a uniformly integrable martingale $(U_n)$ has an integrable terminal random variable $U_{\infty }$ such that $U_n\to U_{\infty }$ almost surely and in the L1 norm, andThe last identity follows by passing to the limit of a sequence in $\mathbb{E}[U_m{1}_A]=\mathbb{E}[U_n{1}_A]$ for $A\in {\mathcal{F}}_n$ and $m\ge n$, using convergence in L1.

Part (b)(iii) verifies uniform integrability for $(Z_n)$, soMoreover $|Z_{\infty }|\le L$ almost surely. In this particular problem the common bound also yields convergence in Lp for every finite $p\ge 1$, including convergence in L2: the dominated convergence theorem applies to $|Z_n-Z_{\infty }{|}^p\le (2L{)}^p$. General uniform integrability alone does not assert these higher-power conclusions.

Choose $Z_{\infty }$ as the pointwise limit of a sequence of $(Z_n)$ where it exists, and as zero otherwise. The convergence event and every $Z_n$ are $\sigma (X)$-measurable, so this is an exactly $\sigma (X)$-measurable version, bounded by $L$. Part (a)(ii), the Doob-Dynkin lemma, supplies a Borel measurable function $g$ on $[0,1]$ such that $Z_{\infty }=g(X)$. Applying scalar clipping to $g$ with bounds $[-L,L]$ preserves that equality and ensures $|g(u)|\le L$ everywhere.

Part (c)(ii) and the conditional expectation formula from part (b)(iv) now giveSince the indices $n$ form a countable family, these identities may be taken on one common full-probability event.

For fixed $n,k$, both the slope and the displayed average are constant on the atom $A_{n,k}$, whose probability is $2^{-n}>0$. An equality holding almost surely of these constants forces the deterministic equalitySum over $0\le k<j$. The telescoping sum givesThus the desired identity holds at every dyadic endpoint, including $1$, without evaluating the undefined slope at $X=1$.

Finally, given $x\in [0,1]$, take dyadic endpoints $x_n\to x$. The Lipschitz condition implies $|f(x_n)-f(x)|\le L|x_n-x|$, and the bound on the Borel measurable function $g$ givesPassing to the limit of a sequence provesThis is a martingale proof of the integral representation of a Lipschitz function. It constructs a bounded Lebesgue integrable function representing the increments of $f$, and in particular proves absolute continuity of $f$. No prior assumption that $f$ has a derivative is needed.