Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2026 iii Paper 201 2 a Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-10-03
For an integrable real random variable , its cumulant-generating function is the extended-real convex functionwhere if the exponential moment diverges. Its Legendre transform of a cumulant-generating function is
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2026 iii Paper 210 1 a Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-10-03
For a centered random variable , being sub-Poisson in the right tail with variance parameter meansIt is sub-Gamma in the right tail with variance parameter and scale parameter when
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2026 iii Paper 210 1 d Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-09-25
A centered random variable is sub-Gaussian with variance parameter whenThe Chernoff bound, applied to and , yieldsThe tail integral formula for moments and the substitution now give
For an integrable random variable , the law of total expectation for the partition of a sample space isParts of zero probability contribute zero and need no definition of . To see the identity, write and use linearity of expectation; integrability justifies the countable sum since .
Each random variable has mean zero and second moment , so its variance is . For , linearity of expectation and variance additivity for independent random variables give
For a nonnegative integer-valued random variable, its probability generating function isThe convention , including at , gives . The power series has absolute convergence for every real , since . More generally its real domain as a finite expected value is , which may extend beyond . No extension beyond that guaranteed interval is automatic.
Every assignment determines a unique set partition into its nonempty colour classes. If there are such blocks of a set partition, there are choices for that set partition. For each fixed choice, assign distinct colours to the blocks of a set partition inways. Although the blocks of a set partition are unlabelled, they are distinguishable by their elements: ordering them temporarily, for instance by their least elements, counts each assignment exactly once. The falling factorial is zero when , as it should be. Summing over the possible numbers of used colours provesHere is the Stirling number of the second kind. Both sides are polynomials in and agree at infinitely many integers , so the identity also holds for every real , including . This extension will justify substituting the random variable in part (iii).
Expand the square and use linearity of expectation, together with and :This proof applies whenever the second moment is finite, and does not require the random variable to be continuous.
For a random variable with a continuous probability distribution and probability density function , the mean and variance areA finite mean requires . A finite variance additionally requires the second moment to be finite; without that condition the nonnegative integral for the variance may be infinite.
For random variables with finite second moments, the variance of a sum isNo independence assumption is needed.
For a random variable with a probability density function, a singleton has zero probability:Equivalently, its cumulative distribution function is continuous, so it has no jump at .
For a nonnegative integer-valued random variable , the tail-sum formula states . It follows by writing and using nonnegativity to interchange sum and expectation.
For an outcome , the two random variables are the coordinate mapsTheir marginal probability mass functions are on , and their joint probability mass function satisfiesOff that support, the same factorization holds with zeros. Hence and are independent random variables, by the joint probability mass function criterion for independence.
For random variables with finite second moments, their covariance isThe Cauchy-Schwarz inequality ensures the product is integrable. Expand and use linearity of expectation:The same identity holds whenever the quantities involved exist with sufficient integrability.
An expected value of a signed random variable is finite precisely when its absolute value is integrable. With the standard normal distribution probability density function,For , this integral equals . For , its integrand does not decay sufficiently and the integral diverges. ThereforeThe value is zero by the odd function and the symmetric distribution. For the other , both positive and negative parts have infinite integrals; formal cancellation would give only a Cauchy principal value, not an expected value. This distinction is the integrability threshold for exponential powers of a Gaussian.
For a continuous random variable with probability density function , its expected value and variance areThe mean requires an integrable first absolute moment, and a finite variance requires a finite second moment. When these hold, .
Interpreting as the probability density function of the random variable, for one hasA single point has zero probability, so including or excluding either endpoint does not change this result.
For a continuous random variable, the probability density integrates to the probability of an interval:Individual endpoints have zero probability, so strict or non-strict inequalities give the same answer.
The random variable is the sum . The linearity of expectation givesMultiplication by reverses the mean but preserves the variance. Under the independence assumption used in part (b), the variance of a sum givesThus both predictions agree with the direct integrals. For the actual elapsed time, adding twenty-five changes the mean to twenty-five minutes and leaves the variance at minute squared.
The preceding marginal calculation makes each uniformly distributed on , with expectation and variance . By independence,Apply part (a) to the centred random variable to obtainThis is Chebyshev's inequality in this setting.