Saddlepoint density approximation (${\hat{f}}_{S_n}(nx)=\frac{e^{n[K(\hat{t})-\hat{t}x]}}{\sqrt{2\pi n{K}^{\prime \prime }(\hat{t})}}$)

For independent identically distributed continuous random variables, let $K(t)=\log \mathbb{E}{e}^{tY}$ be finite near zero. At a mean value $x$ reached by $K^{\prime }(\hat{t})=x$ in the interior of that domain, the displayed leading approximation describes the density of the sum $S_n$. Exponential tilting by $\hat{t}$ puts the sum at its tilted mean; a local normal approximation gives the denominator, and undoing the tilt gives the exponential factor. Under suitable smooth nonlattice regularity, at fixed interior $x$ the exact density is the displayed quantity times $1+O(n^{-1})$. This statistical approximation is an application of the saddle-point approximation to a transform inversion integral. It requires more than the existence of a few ordinary moments.

For independent unit-scale Laplace distributions, the cumulant-generating function is $K(t)=-\log (1-t^2)$ for $|t|<1$. The saddlepoint density approximation solves $K^{\prime }(t)=y$, giving $t=y/(1+\sqrt{1+y^2})$. At this tilt, $K^{\prime \prime }(t)=D(1+D)$ and $ty=D-1$, giving the displayed probability density function approximation for the sample mean. Its value at zero is $\sqrt{n/(4\pi )}$; it need not integrate to one before normalization.

For a sample mean from an independent identically distributed sample, let $K(t)$ be the cumulant-generating function of one observation and solve $K^{\prime }(t)=x$. Put $w=\mathrm{sgn}(t)\sqrt{2n(tx-K(t))}$ and $u=t\sqrt{n{K}^{\prime \prime }(t)}$. Under the smooth, nonlattice conditions for a saddlepoint density approximation, the corresponding approximation to the cumulative distribution function iswhere $\Phi$ and $\varphi$ are the standard normal distribution functions. The apparent singularity at $t=0$ is removable. Write $v=K^{\prime \prime }(0)$ and $k=K^{\prime \prime \prime }(0)$; Taylor expansion gives $w=t\sqrt{nv}(1+kt/(3v)+O(t^2))$ and $u=t\sqrt{nv}(1+kt/(2v)+O(t^2))$. Thus $1/w-1/u\to k/(6\sqrt{n}{v}^{3/2})$. The approximation requires suitable tail regularity and is not a universal formula for distributions without a moment-generating function.

For a regular model with a suitable ancillary statistic $a$, the displayed expression approximates the conditional density of the maximum-likelihood estimator. The normalizing factor includes $(2\pi {)}^{-p/2}$ for a $p$-dimensional estimator, depending on convention. The observed information is evaluated at the sample's own fitted value. In a pure scale model the factor is proportional to $1/\hat{\theta }$; this Jacobian determinant can make the normalized approximation coincide with the exact conditional density.

For independent samples of size $n$ from exponential distributions with rates $\lambda$ and $\psi \lambda$, the maximum-likelihood estimators are $\hat{\lambda }=n/S$ and $\hat{\psi }=S/T$, where $S$ and $T$ are the respective sample sums. Their normalized P-star approximation is exact:Indeed, $S$ and $T$ have independent gamma distributions with shapes $n$ and respective rates $\lambda ,\psi \lambda$. The Jacobian determinant of their inverse transformation is $n^2/({\hat{\psi }}^2{\hat{\lambda }}^3)$, giving the displayed density. Alternatively the square root of the determinant of the fitted observed information is $n/(\hat{\psi }\hat{\lambda })$; multiplying by the exponential of the fitted log-likelihood difference gives the same shape. Its normalizing constant in the P-star approximation is $c_n=n^{2n-1}{e}^{-2n}/\Gamma (n{)}^2$. Integrating over $\hat{\lambda }$ givesso $\hat{\psi }/\psi$ has the F-distribution with degrees of freedom $(2n,2n)$.

For a size-$n$ sample from an exponential distribution of mean $\theta$, the likelihood in the maximum-likelihood estimator coordinate $v=\bar{Y}$ has difference $\ell (\theta ;v)-\ell (v;v)=n\log (v/\theta )-nv/\theta +n$, and the fitted observed information is $n/v^2$. Their P-star approximation is the displayed gamma density shape. Its normalization gives exactly the sampling density $n^n{v}^{n-1}{e}^{-nv/\theta }/(\Gamma (n){\theta }^n)$. This illustrates an exact transformation-model case rather than a general claim of exactness.

Fix an ancillary statistic $a$ and a parameter value at which the score function is evaluated. Express that score as a function $u(v,a)$ of the varying maximum-likelihood estimator coordinate $v$. The ordinary density change-of-variables formula applied to the P-star approximation gives the displayed density; several monotone branches require a sum. Its derivative is a sample-coordinate derivative, not generally the parameter observed information.

If a density has polynomially decaying tails on both half-lines, its moment-generating function is infinite at every nonzero real parameter: exponential growth defeats polynomial decay on the positive tail for a positive parameter, and on the negative tail for a negative parameter. Thus no open real tilting domain exists for a saddlepoint density approximation, even when the distribution has finite mean and variance and a central limit theorem applies.