Two-toss sample space ($\Omega =\{HH,HT,TH,TT\}$)

Model two fair independent coin tosses, recording their order. Here $H$ denotes heads and $T$ tails, andThe power set $\mathcal{P}(\Omega )$ includes every question expressible as a subset of these four outcomes. The mass $1/4=(1/2)(1/2)$ comes from the fairness and independence assumptions. These are exact model probabilities, rather than measured toss frequencies.

Let $A$ be the event that the first toss is heads and $B$ the event that the second toss is heads. ThenThe union means “at least one head,” while the intersection means “both heads.” Their probabilities are $3/4$ and $1/4$. Counting the union through the inclusion-exclusion principle gives $1/2+1/2-1/4=3/4$; alternatively its complement of an event is $\{TT\}$, of probability $1/4$.

On the same sample space, assigning masses $3/8,1/8,1/8,3/8$ to $HH,HT,TH,TT$ would still make each toss fair: $\mathbb{P}(A)=\mathbb{P}(B)=1/2$. But $\mathbb{P}(A\cap B)=3/8\ne 1/4$, so the tosses would be dependent. The event of at least one head would have probability $5/8$. Changing the probability measure changes the answer even when the sample space and the single-toss probabilities stay the same.

Define the head-count random variable $X:\Omega \to \{0,1,2\}$ byThe four elementary outcomes are inputs to this function; its three numerical values are outputs. Each fiber of a function collects all outcomes giving one value. Under the fair independent model, adding the masses in each fiber gives the probability mass functionConsequently the output values are not equally likely, although the inputs are. Using the reduced sample space $\{0,1,2\}$ with these masses gives the same head-count probability distribution; assigning $1/3$ to each value would describe a different model.

A question about a random variable's value becomes an event on the original sample space by taking an inverse image:For a real-valued random variable, this is an event whenever $D$ is a Borel set, by measurability. In this finite example every subset of $\{0,1,2\}$ is allowed. In particular,This is the same “at least one head” event counted above, expressed through an observable.^[ref]

Every event determined by $X$ is a union of complete fibers. There are $2^3=8$ such events, whereas the full power set of $\Omega$ has $2^4=16$. In particular, the first-head event $A=\{HH,HT\}$ is not determined by $X$: it contains $HT$ but excludes $TH$, although both give $X=1$. Choosing an observable makes calculations simpler precisely by forgetting distinctions; the useful choice is one that retains the distinctions the question needs.