Use the usual model of independent games, each with Sheila-win probability . After games, an outcome with wins and losses has possible orders. Since both totals are below eleven, none of those sequences has already ended the match. Thus
For a completed Sheila win with losses, the last game must be her eleventh win. The preceding games contain ten wins and losses, so their probability is , followed by one further factor . The allowed loss counts are , and these terminal events are disjoint. Hence
This is the match win probability with a fixed winning score, obtained by the negative binomial stopping argument. Constant marginal game-win probabilities alone would not justify the product without the usual independence assumption.
Normalize the Rayleigh distribution by substituting :
For its sketch, the density starts at zero, is positive for , and tends to zero at infinity. Differentiation gives
It therefore has a single maximum at , with height .
Figure 1.
Rayleigh density in units of its scale parameter, with its mode and mean
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The expected value is
Integrating by parts with makes the boundary term vanish and leaves . The Gaussian integral gives
Let mean control-group membership and the adverse event. Equal allocation gives , so the law of total probability gives . Bayes' theorem then gives
This is defined when . If both are zero, the conditioning event has zero probability and the stated conditional probability is undefined.
Integrate the probability density function over the specified interval:
The endpoint inclusions make no difference for this continuous distribution.
Real points require , and the two branches are
This is a semicubical parabola, symmetric about the horizontal axis and with a cusp at the origin. The parametrization , traces both branches. Their limiting slopes at the origin are zero, so the common tangent direction is the positive horizontal axis, even though the curve has a cusp there.
Figure 1.
The two real branches of the semicubical parabola and their cusp at the origin
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On , the quadratic polynomial is positive. The required area is therefore its definite integral above the horizontal axis:
The units are square coordinate units.
Differentiate the polynomial and factor:
The stationary points therefore have horizontal coordinates
For a check, is negative at the first and positive at the second, giving a local maximum and a local minimum respectively.
This exponential function is positive everywhere, with , as and as . Its derivatives are
It is strictly decreasing overall, with a horizontal stationary inflection point at . A second, nonstationary inflection point occurs at , where . The only horizontal asymptote is toward positive infinity; the graph is not symmetric about the vertical axis.
Figure 1.
The decreasing cubic exponential, its stationary inflection, and its positive horizontal asymptote
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Where the original expression is defined, multiplication by gives
Thus the graph repeats with period and has vertical asymptotes
Between consecutive asymptotes the extended cotangent branch decreases from to , since . It passes through and .
It is essential to preserve the domain when simplifying a function. At , the original tangent is undefined. The finite limiting value is zero, so the graph has holes at , rather than actual zeros. The simplified expression extends across those points, but the original one does not.
Figure 1.
The periodic tangent quotient, with vertical asymptotes and the original domain's holes retained
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Interpret the stated side lengths as all eight edges of the square pyramid. The equal lateral edges put its apex above the base centre. The base-centre-to-vertex distance is half the diagonal, . The Pythagorean theorem therefore gives
Using the pyramid volume formula with a base,
The sphere has surface area . Dividing the given surface-patch area by that total gives the dimensionless fraction
or about of the surface. The patch area is already measured on the surface, so no planar projection or spherical-cap conversion is needed.
Put the equation into standard ellipse form:
The centre is , with horizontal semiaxis and vertical semiaxis . Its four axis vertices are and ; the ellipse meets the vertical coordinate axis at .
Figure 1.
The displaced ellipse with its centre, semiaxes and coordinate-axis intersections
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Substituting the line into the hyperbola gives
The two polynomial roots give all intersections:
Both satisfy the original line as well as the curve.

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