Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2008 ia Paper 2 10F i Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-09-24
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2016 ib Paper 2 20H a Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-10-06
Let be an open communicating class, and fix . There is a path of positive probability from to a state outside . Choose a shortest such path, so it does not revisit before exiting. No state reached outside can have a path back to : combined with the exit path and communication within , such a path would put it in the same communicating class. Thus with positive probability the chain never returns to . Its return probability is less than one, making a transient state. This proves transience throughout .
Conversely, suppose a finite communicating class were both closed and transient. Starting inside it, a path stays there forever. Since it has finitely many states, at least one state must be visited infinitely often. But a transient state is visited only finitely often almost surely, and the union of finitely many exceptional null events still has probability zero. This is a contradiction. Every finite transient communicating class is therefore open.
For the infinite counterexample, take the biased random walk on with independent increments of probability and of probability . All states communicate, so is one infinite closed communicating class. The strong law of large numbers gives almost surely. Consequently every fixed state is visited only finitely often, and the class is transient. Finiteness is exactly what fails in the preceding argument.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2020 ib Paper 1 20H a Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-09-29
A random time is a stopping time for the natural filtration of a Markov chain when for every . The Strong Markov property says that, conditionally on and , the process after is a fresh copy of the chain started from , independent of the pre- history.
Before capture define the half-separationFor , independence of the two moves gives the transition probabilitiesIgnore the holding steps. The resulting embedded chain is a biased random walk that moves left with probability and right with probability . Its expected number of moves needed to descend one level is ; this follows either from first-step analysis or from its drift . A non-holding move occurs with probability at each time, so its mean waiting time is two. Hence, for every , the expected time to go from separation to is
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2020 ii Paper 2 27K ii Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-09-29
Here the total holding rate isand therefore the jump chain has state-independent transitionsIt is an upward biased random walk on . By the strong law of large numbers, almost surely, so . The jump chain, and hence , is transient.
Counting measure is invariant for this jump chain: for every , its incoming mass is . The invariant-measure transfer between a jump chain and a CTMC therefore gives an invariant measure proportional to . Sincethe normalized invariant distribution of a continuous-time Markov chain isThis does not contradict transience because an invariant distribution of an explosive chain need not imply positive recurrence.
It remains to verify explosion. Starting from zero, the probability that the biased walk ever reaches is . Once it reaches any state, its probability of returning after departure isso its expected total number of visits to that state, conditional on reaching it, is . If is the number of visits to , thenConsequently the expected sum of all holding times isThe nonnegative random variable is therefore finite almost surely. By explosion by summable holding times, makes infinitely many jumps by time , so it is explosive.