Strong law of large numbers Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-10-14
Let be real independent and identically distributed random variables with , and let be their expected value. Their sample mean satisfiesThis is almost sure convergence: with probability one, an entire infinite sequence of observations has averages that eventually stay within every prescribed positive tolerance of . The variance need not be finite. The strong law of large numbers implies the weak law of large numbers, which asserts convergence in probability at each increasing sample size.
For independent trials with a Bernoulli distribution of parameter , is one for success and zero for failure. Then is the observed success proportion, and the strong law of large numbers says almost surely. This turns a theoretical probability into a quantity one can estimate by repetition. It does not say that each new trial improves the estimate: a long string of failures can move the proportion away from before later observations bring it back.
The strong law of large numbers gives the limiting location of the sample mean, while the central limit theorem describes its fluctuations when the variance is finite and positive. The two assertions can hold together:The first error shrinks to zero; the second has been enlarged enough to retain a nontrivial probability distribution. The second assertion is convergence in distribution, not a claim that the enlarged error along one sequence approaches a particular normal random variable.
The assumptions make a practical difference. If every observation repeats the same nonconstant Bernoulli random variable, , then for all : identical probability distributions alone do not make repeated observations informative. For independent observations with a Standard Cauchy distribution, the Cauchy sample mean has an unchanged distribution, so it does not concentrate around a constant. Its expected value is undefined, and ; neither example contradicts the stated strong law of large numbers.
A brief proof outline in the case of finite variance uses the Kolmogorov maximal inequality for the centered partial sums. The probability that their maximum up to exceeds is at most . These bounds are summable, so the Borel-Cantelli lemma controls all sufficiently large such blocks and hence every intermediate sample size. The general case requires truncation to control large observations; the argument using finite variance alone does not prove that full version.
Strong mixing of a stationary process 2026-10-06
Let and be the sigma-algebras generated by the past and future observations. The mixing coefficient is . Strong mixing means . Appropriate quantitative mixing and moment conditions can imply a central limit theorem; absolute summability of autocovariance alone does not.
If the numerator of the generalized covariance measure statistic obeys a central limit theorem with variance and its empirical residual-product second moment converges in probability to the same positive quantity, the Slutsky theorem makes the studentized statistic converge in distribution to .
Studentized sample mean 2026-10-25
For independent and identically distributed observations with finite positive variance, the central limit theorem, consistency of the sample variance and Slutsky's theorem give . Under an independent normal distribution sample it instead has the exact finite-sample Student t-distribution with degrees of freedom, as described by the studentized normal sample mean. The asymptotic statement does not require normal individual observations.
Let be independent random variables, each with the Bernoulli distribution of parameter , and let . Multiplying their characteristic functions and expanding by the binomial theorem givesThe coefficients are exactly the probability mass function of the binomial distribution with parameters : the sum takes with probabilities . Direct outcome counting verifies them: an outcome with ones has probability , and there are such outcomes. The coefficients sum to one, recovering .
At , . This is also : the complex exponential now records parity. The moments agree by two routes: linearity of expectation gives , while the variance of a sum of independent random variables gives . Summing gives the second moment , also recovered as .
U-statistic central limit theorem 2026-10-14
For an iid sample and symmetric square-integrable kernel of fixed order , put and . If , the displayed limit holds. The first Hoeffding projection is ; its orthogonal remainder is , giving the limit by the ordinary central limit theorem. Degenerate kernels require a different limiting theory.
Weak law of large numbers Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-10-14
Let be real independent and identically distributed random variables with and expected value . The weak law of large numbers states that their sample mean has convergence in probability to : for every fixed ,Thus a large sample is unlikely to give an average with a specified fixed-size error. The strong law of large numbers makes the stronger statement of almost sure convergence along an entire sequence. Under the displayed assumptions both laws apply; their names distinguish the conclusions, not two competing predictions.
When the variance is finite, variance additivity for independent random variables gives . The Chebyshev inequality immediately supplies a useful quantitative form and a brief proof:For independent trials with a Bernoulli distribution of parameter , the expected value is and the variance is . At , the chance of an error of at least is therefore at most . The exact binomial distribution gives a much smaller probability, as the figure under the strong law of large numbers shows. The bound is conservative, but it is valid for every sample size under these assumptions and does not require a normal approximation.
The weak law of large numbers addresses a fixed tolerance . The central limit theorem instead resolves errors on the shrinking scale and gives their approximate normal distribution. In particular, the weak law of large numbers alone supplies neither a bell-shaped error law nor a universal rate of approach. For example, a Pareto distribution with minimum one and shape has expected value three but infinite variance: both the weak law of large numbers and strong law of large numbers apply, while the finite-variance statement of the central limit theorem does not.

