CIR bond pricing Created 2026-10-07 Updated 2026-10-14
For the CIR model under its money-market risk-neutral measure, the Feynman-Kac formula gives and , with , . Solving this Riccati equation gives explicit exponential-affine zero-coupon bond prices. The positive root parameter is ; the squared diffusion coefficient, not the volatility itself, enters this expression.
For and potential , the Feynman-Kac formula with initial value one gives . The Ornstein-Uhlenbeck likelihood relative to Wiener measure cancels the quadratic time integral, leaving a Gaussian endpoint integral. Completing the square gives the displayed answer for . It is finite for all nonnegative times when ; when the path expectation diverges at and beyond .
Killed geometric Brownian heat kernel 2026-10-14
The differential operator has solution operator . For its integral kernel with respect to Lebesgue measure is when , and zero otherwise. For the kernel is the measure , not a density. The Itô formula applied to proves this Feynman-Kac formula.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2001 iii Paper 24 5 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
Separate into a diffusion generator and the constant killing term . The appropriate stochastic differential equation and its explicit geometric Brownian motion solution areThe second-order term in the Itô formula cancels the drift of when ; if , the solution stays zero.
Fix a terminal time . Apply the Itô formula to for . Its drift isAfter localization this is a local martingale, and it is bounded because is bounded. It is therefore a true martingale. Taking expectations at its endpoints gives the Feynman-Kac formula
For and , the change of variable in the normal density produces the killed geometric Brownian heat kernel with respect to Lebesgue measure:For , an equivalent form isIn particular,The apparent missing in this last expression is absorbed into the completed square, together with the killing factor; it is not a transcription error. The total mass is , as expected for killing at rate . At the fundamental kernel is instead the measure ; it has no Radon-Nikodym derivative with respect to Lebesgue measure. Thus . At the kernel is , and continuity of bounded gives the initial condition. This also specifies the fundamental solution at the degenerate point omitted by a density-only formula.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2004 iii Paper 30 6 a Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
The differential operator without its potential is the diffusion generator of the d-dimensional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processIts explicit solution defines its path law on . For the potential and initial function one, the Feynman-Kac formula gives the nonnegative path integralThe sign in the exponential is positive, because the PDE contains . One can first stop the diffusion in bounded balls, where the usual localized Feynman-Kac argument applies, and then examine finiteness of the resulting expectation. The critical quadratic potential for the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck generator below supplies that finiteness check.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2005 iii Paper 35 6 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
A one-factor short-rate model uses a single scalar state, normally the short rate itself. Under the physical probability measure writeThe second process is the continuous-time bank account. Specifying the physical diffusion alone does not determine bond prices: it must be accompanied by the market price of risk , or equivalently by pricing-measure dynamics. If the Girsanov theorem applies to the likelihood , then under the risk-neutral measureChanging measure alters drift, not quadratic variation. The coefficients need conditions for a nonexplosive solution and for the relevant discounted prices and measure-change density to be true martingales.
A unit zero-coupon bond maturing at has priceThe Markov property makes current time and rate sufficient state variables. Apply Itô formula to . Its drift must vanish, giving the short-rate bond pricing equationConversely, under the appropriate boundary and integrability conditions the Feynman-Kac formula identifies its solution with the displayed discounted expectation. For a terminal rate-dependent payoff , the same equation has terminal condition instead of one. A coupon bond is a sum of such unit-bond prices weighted by the coupon payments.
The common market price of risk can also be derived from trading, instead of being introduced arbitrarily for each maturity. Under the physical measure a bond's diffusion exposure is and its excess drift above bank financing is . For two nondegenerate traded bonds, combine their holdings to cancel their Brownian exposure. Absence of arbitrage requires that combination to earn the bank rate; hence their excess-drift-to-exposure ratios must coincide. Calling that common ratio yields the pricing equation with for every maturity. A derivative is then hedged locally by holding units of a nondegenerate bond and financing the remaining value through the bank account. Their Brownian exposures agree, and substituting both pricing equations proves the drift gain identity. This is short-rate diffusion hedging; it requires , rather than a bare assertion that one factor automatically gives completeness everywhere.
The entire yield curve is generated consistently from these bond prices. The continuously compounded yield and the instantaneous forward rate areThese encode different summaries: the yield averages the forward rate over the remaining lifetime. Bond prices must satisfy and be positive; they need not be below one in models permitting negative rates.
The Vasicek model has constant pricing dynamicsSolving the linear equation gives . Consequently, with and ,This conditional normal random variable has variance . Its normal exponential moment yieldsEvaluating the elementary integral givesThis explicit form makes estimation and valuation convenient. The rate is Gaussian, its conditional mean reverts to , and its long-run variance is . Its disadvantage, when nonnegative rates are desired, is a positive probability of negative rates.
The CIR model replaces constant volatility by square-root volatility:The standard solution stays nonnegative. The Feller positivity condition for the CIR model is in this parameterization; with a positive initial rate it makes zero inaccessible. Below this threshold zero can be reached, although the process does not cross into negative rates. For an affine diffusion bond pricing ansatz , substitution into the bond equation and matching its constant and rate coefficients givesWriting , factor the quadratic in the first equation and integrate from ; integrating the second equation then gives the CIR bond pricing formulasThe square-root form produces an affine term structure while respecting nonnegative rates. These parameters are pricing-measure parameters; historical mean-reversion estimates alone do not determine them without a risk-premium specification.
Both preceding constant-parameter models constrain the family of initial curves. The Hull-White model allows a deterministic time-dependent drift:For a smooth desired initial forward curve , its exact forward-curve fit in the Hull-White model is obtained by takingTo derive this rather than merely assert calibration, write , where , . The conditional Gaussian-integral calculation at time zero givesso its forward curve is . Choose . Differentiating this shift and adding gives exactly the displayed . Thus for every maturity, while and govern the stochastic fluctuations. This Gaussian model still allows negative rates.
Finally, one-factor models are economical and often give explicit bond prices, but their single Brownian driver is restrictive. Bond diffusion exposures give the instantaneous covariance matrix , of rank at most one. Nondegenerate maturity changes are instantaneously perfectly correlated, with correlation or , though their finite-horizon correlations need not equal one. A single factor therefore cannot independently describe level, slope and curvature shocks to the whole yield curve. Multiple factors or a full forward-rate model offer greater flexibility. A valid one-factor model must specify the pricing drift, fit the initial curve to the required accuracy, and handle boundary and martingale conditions; naming a rate diffusion alone is not a complete pricing model.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2006 iii Paper 35 5 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
Use one -dimensional Brownian motion to couple the diffusion processesThe global existence theorem for stochastic differential equations with Lipschitz coefficients supplies a unique nonexplosive strong stochastic solution. Let be the deterministic drift trajectory. Subtraction and the Gronwall inequality give, on every finite horizon ,This also follows directly from the integral equations with continuous forcing, so the coupling can be chosen simultaneously for all .
For completeness derive the needed Feynman-Kac formula with its potential sign. For fixed , apply the Itô formula and the Itô product rule toIts drift is the exponential factor times , which vanishes by the partial differential equation. It is a local martingale. Boundedness of on the finite time slab and boundedness of make bounded there, so it is a true martingale. Its endpoint expectations giveThe deterministic trajectory on is compact. Uniform pathwise convergence puts all sufficiently small-noise paths in a fixed compact neighbourhood of that trajectory. Continuity of therefore implies ; global uniform continuity of is not required. Continuity of gives convergence of the terminal factor. Finally,The dominated convergence theorem proves the zero-noise limit with a bounded potential:At this is the given initial condition. All boundedness arguments concern a fixed finite horizon; no uniform bound over infinite time is needed.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2012 iii Paper 43 1 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-07
Work under the money-market risk-neutral measure, with . The zero-coupon bond price is . For this CIR model, write . The Feynman-Kac formula givesMatching the constant and linear coefficients of yieldsFor CIR bond pricing, solving this Riccati equation and integrating the scalar equation for , put and . ThenSubstitution verifies both equations and their initial conditions. The discounted candidate solves the martingale pricing equation; its boundedness on finite horizons, or Feynman-Kac formula, identifies it with the conditional expectation. The answer is . More generally the same coefficients give .
The CIR model mean reverts to and has volatility , so it remains nonnegative and its fluctuation size depends on the rate level. For positive initial rate, zero is inaccessible if ; below this threshold zero is reachable but the process remains nonnegative. Its stationary law is a gamma distribution, of shape and rate . Explicit affine bond prices and nonnegative rates are useful features. Limitations include exclusion of negative rates, restricted volatility behavior and a single stochastic factor; the time-homogeneous parameter family cannot fit an arbitrary initial term structure exactly.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2013 iii Paper 25 6 b Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-07
Apply the Itô product rule to the deterministic discount factor and :The prescribed differential equation makes the drift vanish. ThereforeThis is the discounted generator-eigenfunction martingale underlying the Feynman-Kac formula.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2016 iii Paper 211 6 a Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-06
Apply the Itô formula to . The backward equation cancels its drift, leavingBounded and make this Itô integral square-integrable on the finite horizon; in addition itself is bounded. Hence is a true martingale, not just a local martingale, and . Taking conditional expectations givesThe stock is understood to be adapted to the stated Brownian filtration, with its initial value fixed there. This is the Feynman-Kac formula in the zero-potential, zero-drift case.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2017 iii Paper 202 6 c Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-05
The infinite occupation time of one-dimensional Brownian motion impliesFor a start , first wait until hits zero, which happens in finite time by recurrence of one-dimensional Brownian motion, and apply the Strong Markov property. The repeated exit-and-return argument in Question 4(c) then proves the infinite occupation integral. Since , the Feynman-Kac formula gives . The random variables increase to infinity almost surely; the monotone convergence theorem therefore yields the intended positive-potential growth from Brownian recurrence:Under global boundedness, no such solution exists when the initial function is bounded below by a positive constant. The PDF prints ; if the subscript means bounded over the whole product, its hypotheses with are incompatible, rather than an example of growth within that class. The precise correction is to require and its indicated derivatives to be bounded on for every finite . The derivation above then gives the requested limit. Already satisfies the printed initial-data assumption but cannot have a globally bounded classical solution, by this formula. Also the PDF's in this clause reverses the argument order from used in the equation; the limit above keeps the equation's time-first convention.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2019 iii Paper 202 3 3 4 Solution 2026-10-03
Apply the Feynman-Kac formula with and terminal function . The ansatz givesThus and , soEquivalently, the Integral of Brownian motion is Gaussian with mean and variance .
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2019 iii Paper 202 3 3 Solution 2026-10-03
One form of the Feynman-Kac formula is the following. For bounded sufficiently regular andone hasConversely, a bounded classical solution has this representation. To prove it, fix and apply Itô formula toThe PDE cancels its drift. The remaining stochastic integral is a martingale, so taking expectations at gives the representation; the converse follows by the same calculation and uniqueness for the parabolic boundary-value problem.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2022 iii Paper 202 3 c Solution 2026-09-28
Let solveThe Feynman-Kac formula isFix and apply the two-variable Itô formula to and the semimartingale vector . Multiplying byand using the Itô product rule, the drift of isThe remaining stochastic integral is a true martingale because the coefficients and derivatives are bounded. Taking expectations at and gives the formula.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2024 iii Paper 202 6 a Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-09-25
Fix and define for . The assumed smooth extension and the Neumann boundary condition at zero make a function. The heat equation givesThe Itô formula therefore makes a local martingale. Stop first when leaves a large compact interval. The exponential growth bound and the finite exponential moments of the maximum of Brownian motion on give uniform integrability, so localization and the dominated convergence theorem yieldThis is the Feynman-Kac formula for the Neumann heat problem.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2024 iii Paper 211 3 b Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-09-25
The bounded local martingale is a true martingale. Its terminal condition is , soThis is also the Feynman-Kac formula for the displayed backward equation.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2024 iii Paper 211 3 e Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-09-25
The pair is a Markov diffusion with infinitesimal generatorPart d shows that the terminal condition in the equation for is exactlywhen evaluated at . The Feynman-Kac formula applied to the displayed backward equation therefore givesPart c identifies the right side with .
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2025 iii Paper 202 4 d i Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-09-25
Fix and apply Itô formula to for . Its drift isby the Kolmogorov backward equation. HenceLocalization makes this a martingale, and boundedness of permits passage to the limit. Conditioning the identity on givesThis is the required special case of the Feynman-Kac formula, proved directly.
Short-rate bond pricing equation 2026-10-14
For pricing drift , a unit zero-coupon bond price satisfies , with . Itô formula makes its bank-account-discounted value a local martingale; suitable integrability gives . The rate kills the diffusion semigroup, as in the Feynman-Kac formula.