Covariance function Created 2026-09-28 Updated 2026-10-14
For a real-valued stochastic process with finite second moments, write . Its covariance function is
The diagonal gives the variance at each time; off-diagonal values record linear dependence between times. For the independent standard normal random variables above, , whereas the shared Gaussian process has for all . For a fair simple random walk on the integer line, ; Brownian motion has the continuous-time counterpart . These formulas quantify how much random history the observations share.
Every covariance function is a positive-semidefinite kernel. Indeed, for any real coefficients ,
Thus a proposed covariance function must make every finite covariance matrix positive semidefinite. For a Gaussian process, the mean function and the covariance function determine every finite-dimensional distribution, including degenerate ones such as the shared process. Conversely, any real positive-semidefinite kernel satisfying , together with a specified mean function, defines consistent multivariate normal distributions; the Kolmogorov extension theorem then constructs a Gaussian process. For a general stochastic process, covariance alone does not determine the full law. The exceptional completeness of this description is what makes Gaussian process regression possible with a mean and a covariance model.