Intention-to-treat analysis Created 2026-10-07 Updated 2026-10-14
An intention-to-treat analysis compares participants according to their randomized assignment, retaining that assignment even when they do not use the assigned intervention. Its causal effect is the effect of assignment under the study's actual adherence pattern, rather than the effect of perfect adherence. Randomization protects this comparison from baseline confounding; missing data can still require assumptions or additional analysis.
For monotone missing data, let indicate observation and let be the product of the conditional retention probabilities through visit . Under sequential missing at random, conditioning on the complete response history makes these retention probabilities depend only on the history already observed at each decision. Therefore . Weighting a working-independence generalized estimating equation by restores its mean-zero property. This needs correct retention probabilities, positivity and regularity; uncertainty must account for estimating the weights.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2003 iii Paper 38 5 i Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
The independence analysis is not justified without further assumptions. Three binary responses from the same subject generally remain correlated after conditioning on baseline covariates and treatment. The fitted independent-Bernoulli likelihood discards that correlation and gives incorrect model-based standard errors and tests if it is present. Positive within-subject correlation commonly makes those errors too small.
There is an important distinction between estimating the mean and estimating uncertainty. If the stated marginal logistic regression is correct and responses are fully observed, the independence score still has zero expectation. With independent subjects and regularity, its root can consistently estimate marginal coefficients despite within-subject dependence; a subject-level sandwich covariance matrix is then needed. True independence is a special case in which the original standard errors would be appropriate.
Dropout creates a separate issue. Restricting that score to observed responses need not preserve its zero expectation if observation depends on the response history or unseen depression outcomes. Therefore both point estimates and uncertainty may be wrong. Neither random treatment assignment nor baseline adjustment alone establishes an ignorable missingness mechanism. We need a model matched to the scientific estimand and explicit assumptions about missing data.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2015 iii Paper 35 1 d Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-06
Multiple imputation by chained equations specifies one conditional distribution for each incomplete variable. In general, let be the incomplete variables, the fully observed predictors, and the parameters of a model . The notation means all variables except . The models should respect each variable's support and contain the terms needed by the planned analysis.
First choose suitable models and initialise only the missing entries with admissible provisional values. One sweep updates in turn. At update , fit its model to records whose is observed, using the latest filled-in predictors. DrawThe first draw represents parameter uncertainty through a Bayesian posterior; the second represents residual uncertainty through a posterior predictive distribution. Replace the missing entries with these draws, leaving every genuinely observed entry fixed. Repeat whole sweeps until the chain has settled, assessing traces, mixing and plausibility. Obtain completed datasets from independently initialised chains, or sufficiently separated draws after convergence. Both parameter and missing-value uncertainty must be propagated; repeated deterministic prediction is not multiple imputation.
Here use a logistic regression for conditional on , age and sex. For , use an appropriate discrete count model conditional on , age and sex, such as a suitably checked negative binomial regression, allowing enough flexibility for skewness and nonlinear effects. Include interactions or transformations needed by the analysis in the imputation models. If condom use is structurally undefined for a record, preserve that applicability rule rather than treating it as ordinary missing data.
Impute the eligible survey information before discarding records solely because the observed is absent. In each completed dataset select its own records and fit the requested logistic regression. This allows a record with missing to contribute to the target group in some imputations and not others. Models must respect any known eligibility restrictions; if eligibility was independently known, use that information.
For a scalar regression coefficient, let be its estimate and its estimated variance in completed dataset . Rubin's rules giveThe standard error is . Use the corresponding multiple-imputation confidence interval, rather than treating one completed dataset as fully observed. For vector coefficients replace the squared differences by outer products and by the covariance matrix. This combines within-imputation and between-imputation uncertainty.