Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2016 ib Paper 4 19H a Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-10-06
Let . Under the usual nondegenerate regression assumption , maximizing the normal likelihood is equivalent to minimizing the residual sum of squares. The normal equations and give the maximum-likelihood estimatorsWrite and . Then , , and the residual is . Independence of the errors givesFor each ,Thus the three requested variables are pairwise uncorrelated.
They are linear functions of the jointly normal error vector. More strongly, the whole vector has a multivariate normal distribution, and its block covariances show that , and the residual vector are independent, by uncorrelated jointly normal variables are independent. Independence is preserved when applying a measurable function to the residual block. HenceThe residual projection is , of rank , so additionally . This is the orthogonal projection of a Gaussian vector interpretation of the same result. The printed design conditions alone allow ; then the fit is exact, the positive-variance likelihood has no finite maximizer, and the residual test in part (b) is undefined. The standard testing question therefore needs .
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2016 iii Paper 206 2 b Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-06
The fitted values are , so the hat matrix isIt is symmetric, andIt fixes every vector in the column space of , and annihilates its orthogonal complement. Thus is the orthogonal projection onto that column space, has matrix rank and trace , and is the complementary orthogonal projection. ConsequentlySince , the covariance matrix between the regression residual vector and the coefficient estimate isThese quantities have a joint normal distribution, so they are also independent, a stronger conclusion than zero covariance.
Now has mean zero. Using the expectation of a quadratic form,Thus the maximum-likelihood estimator hasThe unbiased alternative isThe orthogonal projection of a Gaussian vector also yields , explaining the residual degrees of freedom.