Past exam of the geophysical fluid dynamics course of the University of Oxford / 2023 / 2

Use eastward $x$, northward $y$, pressure coordinate $p$ increasing downward, and geopotential $\Phi =gz$. Horizontal derivatives are taken on an isobaric surface. The horizontal geostrophic balance and vertical hydrostatic balance arewhere $R$ is the specific gas constant of dry air and the final equality uses the ideal gas law. At fixed latitude $f$ is independent of $p$. Cross-differentiating givesConsequently the pressure-coordinate thermal wind equations areEquivalently, $f{\mathbf{e}}_z\times {\partial }_{\ln p}{\mathbf{u}}_g=R{\nabla }_{p}T$. Notice the sign: increasing eastward velocity upward means decreasing eastward velocity with $\ln p$, and hence poleward-decreasing temperature in the Northern Hemisphere.

For the stratospheric polar vortex estimate, the original diagram must be read on its logarithmic pressure axis. Near $60^{\circ }$ in the winter hemisphere, adjacent $10\mathrm{m}{\mathrm{s}}^{-1}$ wind contours suggest an increase of roughly $20\mathrm{m}{\mathrm{s}}^{-1}$ through a pressure decade surrounding $10\mathrm{mb}$: for example, about $10\mathrm{m}{\mathrm{s}}^{-1}$ near $30\mathrm{mb}$ and $30\mathrm{m}{\mathrm{s}}^{-1}$ near $3\mathrm{mb}$. These are coarse graphical readings, not a sounding. ThusWith $|f|=2\Omega \sin 60^{\circ }\simeq 1.26\times 10^{-4}{\mathrm{s}}^{-1}$ and $R\simeq 287\mathrm{J}\mathrm{k}{\mathrm{g}}^{-1}{\mathrm{K}}^{-1}$, the poleward temperature gradient is approximatelyIf the vortex edge is taken to span roughly $50^{\circ }$ to $70^{\circ }$, its width is $a(20\pi /180)\simeq 2.2\times 10^6\mathrm{m}$, givingThe estimate depends on the width assigned to the edge and the graphical vertical shear; a range of several to roughly fifteen kelvin is more justified than a precise value. The sign remains a cold winter pole in either hemisphere. The diagram does not by itself prescribe a unique pair of edge latitudes.

At low latitudes, horizontal free-atmospheric temperature gradients are usually much smaller than at the winter vortex edge. For a comparable finite wind vertical shear, the rearranged thermal-wind balance, $T_y=(f/R)u_{\ln p}$, is consistent with weaker temperature gradients as $|f|$ decreases. However, geostrophic balance loses validity near the equator because the Coriolis parameter vanishes; division by $f$ cannot be used there to derive a prediction. The weak temperature gradient approximation is better motivated by rapid horizontal internal gravity wave adjustment, together with tropical convection and the Hadley cell. Thermal-wind balance describes the balanced extratropical relation and its tendency approaching the tropics; it is not a complete causal explanation of equatorial thermal uniformity.

The quasi-geostrophic potential-vorticity equation is the leading balanced form of potential-vorticity conservation for an inviscid rotating fluid with stable density stratification, small Rossby number and an adiabatic process for each fluid element. Its parent conservation law is Ertel potential vorticity conservation. Horizontal geostrophic balance, vertical hydrostatic balance, and the beta-plane approximation reduce it to advection of one scalar by the leading horizontal geostrophic flow.

One can see its origin by combining the vertical vorticity equation with the thermal equation. Set $D_g={\partial }_t+{\mathbf{u}}_g\cdot {\nabla }_h$, ${\mathbf{u}}_g=(-{\psi }_y,{\psi }_x)$, and ${\zeta }_g={\nabla }_h^2\psi$. The quasi-geostrophic approximation givesHere $b$ is the buoyancy perturbation relative to the reference stable density stratification, $N=N(z)$ its buoyancy frequency, and $w$ the small vertical velocity. The stretching of absolute vorticity in the first equation is offset by the change of stratification represented by the second. More precisely,The last dot product is zero because thermal-wind balance makes ${\partial }_z{\mathbf{u}}_g$ perpendicular to ${\nabla }_{h}b$. Adding therefore yieldsThe constant $f_0$ has no effect on the tendency, but its inclusion makes the connection with absolute vorticity clear. Vertical advection of $q$ is beyond the retained order; the vertical velocity has already supplied the stretching and thermodynamic terms.

For a simple balanced weather forecast, the essential cycle is diagnose, advect, invert:

This is an elliptic boundary value problem, not a local algebraic diagnosis. Its solution supplies the next geostrophic flow and, through $b=f_0{\psi }_z$, the next thermal field. Repeat the cycle to move the balanced weather systems forward.

Interior potential vorticity alone is insufficient: boundary thermal anomalies can induce flow even with zero interior anomaly, as in the Eady model. The method filters fast inertia-gravity waves and is useful for large-scale extratropical weather, while tropical dynamics, convection, moisture, friction and diabatic heating require additional physics. If vertical motion is wanted, the quasi-geostrophic omega equation supplies a further diagnostic calculation.

For the proposed plane wave, define the positive squared effective wavenumberThe horizontal Laplacian contributes $-(k^2+l^2){\psi }^{\prime }$ and the vertical stretching operator contributes $-(f_0^2/N^2)m^2{\psi }^{\prime }$. Substitution in the Linear Rossby-wave equation therefore givesThe intrinsic phase velocity is westward for positive $\beta$. A stationary disturbance with $\omega =0$ and $k\ne 0$ must have its westward intrinsic phase velocity exactly cancelled by the eastward background current. Solving for the squared vertical wavenumber yieldsFor Earth, with northward $y$, $\beta =2\Omega \cos \varphi /a>0$ in both hemispheres away from the poles. Thus an oscillatory vertical structure requiresThe background flow must be eastward but not too strong for the chosen horizontal scale. Long horizontal wavelengths have the largest allowed speed. An easterly current, $U<0$, gives $m^2<0$ and an evanescent wave; so does an eastward current exceeding the upper bound. At equality $m=0$ and the vertical group velocity vanishes. A zonally uniform disturbance, $k=0$, is a degenerate stationary pattern with no vertical Rossby wave energy propagation, so it cannot be obtained by cancelling $k$ in the preceding calculation.

A real $m$ alone does not select upward propagation. Differentiate the dispersion relation at fixed $k,l$ to obtain the vertical group velocity:The outgoing radiation condition for a surface source requiresFor the convention $k>0$, take $m>0$. The stationary phase lines then obey $dx/dz=-m/k<0$: they tilt westward with height while wave energy travels upward. The real conjugate component $(-k,-l,-m)$ describes the same physical upward-propagating wave.

The figure suggests a winter extratropical path from the lower terrestrial atmosphere into the stratosphere, where the mean zonal flow is eastward. The summer stratosphere has westward flow and blocks such stationary Rossby waves in this idealization. A zero-wind surface is a stationary-wave critical layer in a shear flow; it also bounds the winter westerlies aloft near the upper part of the diagram. For a slowly varying real wind profile, local propagation needs $m^2(z)>0$ along the path, sufficient surface forcing, and no intervening absorbing critical layer in a shear flow. A layer where the eastward wind becomes too strong is a turning barrier for the given horizontal wavenumbers. The uniform-current result is a local guide, not a complete prediction through a sheared spherical terrestrial atmosphere.

For scale, at $60^{\circ }$ latitude $\beta \simeq 1.14\times 10^{-11}{\mathrm{m}}^{-1}{\mathrm{s}}^{-1}$. A planetary zonal wavenumber $s$ has local $k=s/(a\cos \varphi )$. Taking $l=0$ gives the most permissive limitThe resulting limits are approximately $116$, $29$ and $13\mathrm{m}{\mathrm{s}}^{-1}$ for $s=1,2,3$. Therefore the long planetary waves are favored; the strong core of the winter vortex can exclude shorter ones even though it is westerly. Nonzero meridional wavenumber lowers these limits further. A compressible log-pressure coordinate model would also contain a density-scale-height correction; it is absent from the equation supplied here and should not be silently inserted.

Interchanging the Northern and Southern Hemispheres changes the sign of $f_0$, but only $f_0^2$ enters the dispersion relation and vertical group velocity. With the same eastward $x$ and northward $y$, $\beta$ stays positive. Thus the propagation criterion is the same in both hemispheres: it selects the winter westerlies, irrespective of which hemisphere is winter. Actual amplitudes can differ because mountains, land-sea contrasts, forcing spectra and mean winds differ between hemispheres; those source differences do not reverse this propagation criterion.