Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge / 2015 / iii / Paper 39 (Stochastic Networks)

First consider an M-M-K queue with $K$ servers, arrival rate $\lambda$, and service rate $\beta$ at each server. Assume $\lambda <K\beta$ so that a stationary distribution exists. Its population is a birth-death process with rates $q_{n,n+1}=\lambda$ and $q_{n,n-1}=\beta \min (n,K)$. The equilibrium probabilities satisfy detailed balanceThus the population process is a reversible Markov chain. In its time reversal of a continuous-time Markov chain, forward departures become upward jumps whose rate is the constant $\lambda$, independent of the state. They can be generated by a rate-$\lambda$ Poisson process independent of the initial reversed state. Reversing time preserves the Poisson process law, proving the equilibrium departure process is Poisson with rate $\lambda$, the Burke theorem for a multi-server queue.

The same argument gives the departure component of quasireversibility needed for the tandem calculation: the present upstream population is independent of its entire past departure process. Indeed, these departures become future arrivals in the reversed chain, independent of its initial population. First check this on finite time windows, then extend to the full past. A Poisson output alone, without this independence, would not justify multiplying queue-empty probabilities.

Now let $a=\nu \mu$, where $\mu$ denotes the mean service time at passport control, so the service rate at each of its two servers is $1/\mu$. The stationary distribution of the M-M-s queue with $s=2$ has normalizing sumHence its empty probability is $(2-a)/(2+a)$. Its output feeds a stable M/D/1 queue with rate $\nu$ and deterministic service time $\tau$. In a stationary work-conserving single-server queue, the busy fraction is the rate of completed work, $\nu \tau$, so the empty probability is $1-\nu \tau$.

The downstream stationary workload is a causal function of past upstream departures. For example, it is the limit of workloads constructed from arrivals in increasingly long finite past intervals; stability makes this stationary construction well defined. The backward independence just proved therefore makes the two present queue populations independent. Consequently

With walking time $\sigma$, the downstream arrival stream is the upstream departure stream shifted by $\sigma$. Its present workload depends only on departures up to time $-\sigma$. The number walking at time zero is the number of departures in $(-\sigma ,0]$, which has Poisson distribution of mean $\nu \sigma$ and is independent of the earlier departures. The upstream present population is independent of both parts of its past departure stream. Thus the three empty events factor, givingThe factor $e^{-\nu \sigma }$ is the empty probability of the deterministic-travel infinite-server stage. Both printed stability inequalities ensure the stationary calculations apply.

For the Erlang loss formula, assume a Poisson process of arrivals with rate $\lambda$, independent holding times with exponential distribution of mean $1/\beta$, unit capacity usage per accepted call, and rejection without waiting when all $C$ units are occupied. Here $C$ is a positive integer and the offered load is $a=\lambda /\beta$. The call population on $\{0,\dots ,C\}$ is a birth-death process; detailed balance givesBy Poisson arrivals see time averages, the fraction of arrivals rejected is the time probability of full occupancy. ThereforeThe paper's $\nu$ is the offered load, rather than necessarily an arrival rate. Exponential holding times suffice for this derivation; no unproved insensitivity of loss networks assumption is needed.

A loss network with fixed routing has capacities $C_j$, call types $r$, and a link-route incidence matrix $A$ with $A_{jr}=1$ exactly when a type-$r$ call requires link $j$. An accepted call holds one unit on every link of its route for its holding time; if any required link is full, the call is rejected everywhere. Take independent Poisson processes of calls, independent holding times, and route offered loads ${\nu }_r$. For the finite-variable formulation below, take $C_j\ge 1$; a zero-capacity link and all routes using it may be removed first.

The Erlang fixed point approximation treats blocking at different links as independent and thins the traffic offered to link $j$ by acceptance at the other links. Its reduced offered load isThe equality uses $A_{jr}\in \{0,1\}$: only routes with $A_{jr}=1$ contribute. Treating this reduced stream as Poisson leads to $B_j=E(a_j(B),C_j)$. Independence and Poisson thinning here are the approximation, not exact properties of a general loss network.

To construct the convex potential for the Erlang fixed point, write $e_C(a)=E(a,C)$ and $m_C(a)=a[1-e_C(a)]$, the carried load of an Erlang loss resource, equivalently the mean occupancy in the single-link stationary distribution. Differentiating its finite sums gives, for $a>0$,The variance is positive because the finite occupancy law is nondegenerate for $a>0$. Furthermore $e_C$ maps $[0,\infty )$ increasingly onto $[0,1)$, while $m_C$ increases from zero to $C$. SetIn particular $U(0,C)=0$, $U(\cdot ,C)$ is continuous and strictly increasing, and $U(z,C)\to C$ as $z\to \infty$.

Forthe first sum is convex, and each integrated strictly increasing function is strictly convex. Thus $F$ is a strictly convex function on $y\ge 0$. Since $U$ tends to a positive limit on every coordinate, $F$ is a coercive function there; it has a unique minimizer. Its coordinate derivative isThe Erlang fixed point equation is exactly ${\partial }_{j}F=0$. For an unused link, $a_j=0$ and the optimum is $y_j=0$; for a used link with positive offered load, the derivative at zero is negative and the optimum is positive. Hence every fixed point gives the unique minimizer, and the minimizer gives a fixed point. The Erlang fixed point is unique under these fixed-routing assumptions.

A convergent cyclic substitution for the Erlang fixed point updates one coordinate at a time, repeatedly cycling through all links:Always use the most recently available values of the other coordinates. Start, for example, with $B=0$. In $y$ coordinates this is exact coordinate descent for $F$: with other coordinates fixed, the displayed update is the unique coordinate minimizer.

Here is a convergence proof. All iterates stay in the initial compact sublevel set of the coercive function $F$, and their potential values decrease to a limit. Each single-coordinate update is continuous, since its reduced load is continuous and finite and $E(a,C)<1$. Thus a whole-sweep map $T$ is continuous. If a full-sweep subsequence converges to $z$, continuity gives $F(Tz)=F(z)$, because both consecutive potential values converge to the same limit. Strict coordinate convexity means equality can occur only when no coordinate changes during that sweep. Thus $z$ minimizes every coordinate, satisfies the nonnegative-orthant first-order conditions, and is the unique global minimizer of $F$. Every subsequential limit is therefore the same point, proving convergence of the full-sweep iterates and, by continuity of the updates, all intermediate iterates. This argument applies to sequential substitution; it does not assume simultaneous updates converge.

Let $R_s$ be the finite nonempty set of routes for source-sink pair $s$, with fixed nonnegative demand $f_s$. A Wardrop equilibrium is a feasible route-flow vector such that every route carrying positive flow has minimum total delay among the routes for its pair. Ifthis means that, for each $s$, some ${\lambda }_s$ satisfies $c_r(y)\ge {\lambda }_s$ for $r\in R_s$, with equality whenever $x_r>0$.

The link-route incidence matrix has $A_{jr}=1$ when route $r$ uses link $j$ and zero otherwise, or the traversal multiplicity if repeated traversals are permitted. The source-sink route incidence matrix has $H_{sr}=1$ when route $r$ serves pair $s$ and zero otherwise. Thus $Ax=y$ gives link throughputs, and $Hx=f$ gives the fixed demands.

The feasible route-flow set is a product of finite simplexes, hence nonempty and both a compact set and a convex set. The Beckmann potentialis continuous and convex, so it attains a minimum. Its route derivative is ${\partial }_r\Phi =c_r(Ax)$. At a minimum, moving a small amount of flow from any used route to any other route for the same pair cannot decrease the potential. Hence every used route has minimum route delay, exactly the Wardrop equilibrium condition. Conversely, at a Wardrop equilibrium $x$, for any feasible $\tilde{x}$,because the used flow has cost ${\lambda }_s$ and competing routes cost at least ${\lambda }_s$. The first-order inequality for a convex function makes $x$ a global minimum. This proves both existence and the specified optimization characterization.

Since each $D_j$ is strictly increasing, its primitive is a strictly convex function. Therefore the objective is strictly convex as a function of link loads $y$, and the equilibrium throughputs $y$ are unique. The mapping $x\mapsto Ax$ need not be injective on $Hx=f$, so route flows need not be unique.

For a concrete route-flow nonuniqueness at a Wardrop equilibrium example, use one unit-demand pair with two successive stages, each containing two parallel links. There are four routes, indexed by their two link choices. Give every link delay $D(u)=u$. For every $0\le t\le 1/2$,produces load $1/2$ on all four links. Every route has delay one, so each vector is a Wardrop equilibrium with the same unique link loads.

To implement minimum average delay, minimize the total delayThe average differs only by the fixed total demand ${\sum }_s{f}_s$, provided it is positive. Choose any global minimizer $x^{\ast }$, which exists by compactness, and write $y^{\ast }=A{x}^{\ast }$. Its first-order route-exchange conditions are the Wardrop equilibrium conditions for marginal link costsA genuinely traffic-dependent choice guaranteed under exactly the printed hypotheses is the calibrated toll functionHere $v_{+}=\max (v,0)$. The calibrated base charges are nonnegative because differentiable increasing delays have nonnegative derivatives, and the added penalties are nonnegative and nondecreasing in $u$. The perceived link costs $D_j(u)+T_j(u)$ remain strictly increasing, and at $y^{\ast }$ they equal $m_j^{\ast }$. Hence $x^{\ast }$ is a tolled Wardrop equilibrium. The same strictly convex Beckmann potential argument makes all its equilibrium link loads equal to $y^{\ast }$; every tolled equilibrium therefore has the globally minimum average delay. This is optimal-flow calibrated congestion tolling.

The familiar marginal external cost toll is $T_j(u)=u{D}_j^{\prime }(u)$, whose perceived-cost primitive is exactly $u{D}_j(u)$. It implements the optimum directly when the total-delay objective is convex, for example when each $u{D}_j(u)$ is convex. That extra hypothesis does not follow from the printed strict increase of $D_j$: for two identical parallel links with $D(u)=1-e^{-u}$ and total demand six, equal loads of three form a tolled Wardrop equilibrium, but the second derivative of $uD(u)$ at three is $-e^{-3}<0$, so an unequal nearby split lowers total delay. The calibrated traffic-dependent toll above establishes the requested existence without silently assuming this additional convexity.

Write $p_r=(A^T\mu {)}_r$ for a route congestion price and $y_j=(Ax{)}_j$ for resource demand. A route with weighted logarithmic utility $w_r\log x_r$ chooses $x_r=w_r/p_r$, since its marginal utility equals its route congestion price. Each resource raises its price when $y_j>C_j$ and lowers it when $y_j<C_j$; ${\kappa }_j$ controls the speed. This is a multiplicative resource-price dynamics model of supply-demand feedback.

For a well-defined finite network, assume positive capacities, nonempty routes, and strictly positive initial resource congestion prices. The relevant rank condition is full row rank, $\mathrm{rank}A=|J|$. Zero initial prices are invariant under the printed differential equation, so the unrestricted phrase “all trajectories” needs a qualification; a concrete counterexample is given below.

Define $g(\mu )=Ax(\mu )-C$. On the domain $\mu \ge 0$ with $p_r>0$, direct differentiation givesThus $V$ is a concave function, and it is a strictly concave function when $A$ has full row rank. It has a maximum: as $\Vert \mu {\Vert }_1\to \infty$, its negative linear capacity term dominates its logarithmic terms, while on bounded sets $V\to -\infty$ if any route congestion price approaches zero. A maximizing price vector ${\mu }^{\ast }$ therefore exists with every $p_r^{\ast }>0$, though some individual resource congestion prices may be zero. The Karush-Kuhn-Tucker conditions areThey express feasibility and complementary slackness: positively priced resources are fully used, and an underused resource has zero price. Full row rank gives uniqueness of this maximizing price vector.

To prove convergence, rather than merely monotonicity of $V$, use the relative-entropy Lyapunov function for resource priceswhere a summand with ${\mu }_j^{\ast }=0$ means ${\mu }_j/{\kappa }_j$. Every summand is nonnegative and vanishes only at its reference price. Along a positive-price trajectory,The last equality follows by substituting $x_r=w_r/p_r$, and complementary slackness removes ${\mu }^{\ast T}g({\mu }^{\ast })$.

A sublevel set of $L$ bounds every price from above and bounds every coordinate with ${\mu }_j^{\ast }>0$ away from zero. Each route contains at least one such coordinate, because $p_r^{\ast }>0$. All route congestion prices consequently remain bounded away from zero, so the vector field is regular on the resulting compact set. Positive coordinates cannot hit zero in finite time, since their equations have the form ${\dot{\mu }}_j={\mu }_j$ times a bounded function. These bounds also give global existence.

The LaSalle invariance principle now applies. Equality in $\dot{L}\le 0$ requires $A^T\mu =A^T{\mu }^{\ast }$ and ${\mu }_j{g}_j({\mu }^{\ast })=0$. Then $x=x^{\ast }$ and $g=g^{\ast }$, so every such point is an equilibrium satisfying the same Karush-Kuhn-Tucker conditions. If $A$ has full row rank, $A^T$ is injective, making this set the singleton ${\mu }^{\ast }$. Thusfor every strictly positive initial price vector. This proves full-row-rank convergence of multiplicative resource prices.

If $A$ is row-rank deficient, all maximizing price vectors still have the same route-price vector: otherwise strict concavity of ${\sum }_r{w}_r\log p_r$ makes their midpoint improve $V$. Consequently the limiting rates are unique, while individual prices may not be. Positive-price trajectories actually converge to a single point in that possibly non-singleton equilibrium set. To see this, choose any subsequential limit $\bar{\mu }$ in it, and form the same $L$ with reference $\bar{\mu }$. It is nonincreasing, and along the chosen subsequence it tends to zero. Hence it tends to zero on the whole trajectory, forcing $\mu (t)\to \bar{\mu }$.

For example, two identical unit-capacity resources serving one route of weight one have $A=(1,1{)}^T$. With ${\kappa }_1={\kappa }_2=1$, $p={\mu }_1+{\mu }_2$ obeys $\dot{p}=1-p$, while ${\mu }_1/{\mu }_2$ is constant. The equilibrium prices can be any nonnegative pair with sum one, and positive initial values select the limiting split; the route rate always tends to one. Rank deficiency can, but need not, cause price nonuniqueness. This example also shows why full column rank alone is insufficient.

Finally, the zero-price qualification is essential even for an invertible matrix. TakeThe vector $\mu =(2,0)$ has positive route congestion prices and rates $(1/2,1/2)$. Resource one is balanced, but resource two is overloaded; its zero price keeps its derivative zero. This is a boundary equilibrium of multiplicative price dynamics, distinct from the optimizing equilibriumTherefore full row rank gives the unique optimizing equilibrium and convergence from strictly positive prices; it does not give uniqueness of every equilibrium on the nonnegative orthant.

A feasible per-flow allocation satisfies $x_r>0$ for each active route and ${\sum }_r{A}_{jr}{n}_r{x}_r\le C_j$. It has proportional fairness if every feasible competitor obeysBy the first-order inequality for the strictly concave logarithm, this is equivalent to maximizing weighted logarithmic utility ${\sum }_{r:n_r>0}{n}_r\log x_r$ over the feasible allocations. Inactive-route rates are immaterial; set them to zero as a convention.

Write $a=n_{\{1\}}$, $b=n_{\{2\}}$, $c=n_{\{1,2\}}$, and $N=a+b+c$. The capacity constraints are $a{x}_1+c{x}_0\le 1$ and $b{x}_2+c{x}_0\le 1$. For $c>0$, put $q=c{x}_0$. Each active local route uses its remaining capacity $1-q$. Omitting constants, the utility isIts maximum has $q=c/N$; when $a+b=0$, the maximum is the endpoint $q=1$. Hence for active routesThese formulas also give $x_1=1/a$ and $x_2=1/b$ when $c=0$. When $N=0$ there is no allocated service. Equivalently, the aggregate route rates for $N>0$ areThis is the proportionally fair allocation on a two-resource linear network for a two-resource linear flow network.

For independent Poisson processes of documents and independent document sizes with exponential distribution of rate ${\mu }_r$, the memorylessness of the exponential distribution makes the population a continuous-time Markov chain. Its transition intensities areThe departure intensity sums the $n_r$ independent completion hazards ${\mu }_r{x}_r$. There is no departure on an inactive route. Set ${\rho }_r={\nu }_r/{\mu }_r$, with ${\mu }_r>0$.

To prove the proposed stationary distribution, define the balance function of a flow-level networkFor an active local route, $\Psi (n-e_r)/\Psi (n)=(a+b)/N$, while for the through route this ratio is $c/N$. Thus ${\Lambda }_r(n)=\Psi (n-e_r)/\Psi (n)$. The weightssatisfy detailed balance on every arrival-departure pair:Each total jump rate is bounded by ${\sum }_r({\nu }_r+{\mu }_r)$, so the chain is a nonexplosive Markov chain; normalized detailed-balance weights therefore give its stationary distribution, the stationary law of a two-resource linear flow network.

Use the negative binomial series to sum first over $c$:The remaining two geometric series giveAll summands are nonnegative. Consequently the sum is finite exactly under the stability conditions for a two-resource linear flow networkThese say that the offered load on each unit-capacity resource is strictly below one. Equality is insufficient: at least one geometric series then diverges. If all arrival rates are positive, the chain is irreducible and the normalizable law is its unique equilibrium law.

Finally put $q_i={\rho }_i/(1-{\rho }_0)$, $i=1,2$. Summing over $c$ yieldsThus the two local-route counts are independent, each with geometric distribution on the nonnegative integers. The conditional through-route count has negative binomial distributionFor positive traffic rates this depends on the local counts, so all three route counts are not independent. More quantitatively, $\mathrm{Cov}(a,c)={\rho }_0\mathrm{Var}(a)/(1-{\rho }_0)>0$, and likewise for $b$. If zero arrival rates are allowed, the exceptional independent cases are ${\rho }_0=0$, or ${\rho }_1={\rho }_2=0$, when the relevant counts are deterministic zero. This distinction is local-count independence with through-flow dependence.