Past exam of the probability, measure and martingales course of the University of Oxford / 2021 / 2

Let $m=\mathbb{E}X$. First, $m$ lies in the open interval $I$. For example, if $I$ has a finite lower endpoint $\ell$, then $X-\ell >0$ almost surely, and its expected value is strictly positive; hence $m>\ell$. The corresponding argument at a finite upper endpoint gives the other strict inequality. Integrability ensures $m$ is finite when either endpoint is infinite.

The tangent affine function at $m$ gives the supporting inequality for a differentiable convex function. Under the stipulated condition $f^{\prime \prime }>0$, contact with that tangent occurs only at $m$: defineThen $h(m)=0$, and $h(t)>0$ for every $t\ne m$. One direct proof uses $h^{\prime }(t)=f^{\prime }(t)-f^{\prime }(m)$: $f^{\prime }$ is strictly increasing, so $h$ decreases towards $m$ on the left and increases away from $m$ on the right. Thereforewith equality exactly when $h(X)=0$ almost surely, equivalently when $X=m$ almost surely. Conversely, an almost surely constant $X=m$ plainly gives equality. This proves the strict Jensen equality criterion.

No extra assumption that $f(X)$ is an integrable random variable is needed to interpret this argument. Its negative part is bounded by the absolute value of the integrable random variable $f(m)+f^{\prime }(m)(X-m)$, since $h(X)\ge 0$. Thus its expected value is defined in $(-\infty ,+\infty ]$; if it equals the finite number $f(m)$, then $\mathbb{E}[h(X)]=0$ and the required integrability follows automatically. Equality holds if and only if $X=\mathbb{E}X$ almost surely.

For each $N\ge 1$, put $C_N={\bigcup }_{n\ge N}{A}_n$. Closure of a sigma-algebra under countable unions and countable intersections givesThe events $C_N$ decrease to $A$. Continuity of probability from above applies because $\mathbb{P}(C_1)\le 1<\infty$. Also, $A_n\subseteq C_N$ whenever $n\ge N$, soLetting $N\to \infty$ provesThis reverse Fatou inequality for events requires no independence.

Write $B_n=\{X_n>a_n\}$. If $B_n$ occurs, the running maximum at time $n$ exceeds $a_n$, so $B_n\subseteq A_n$ and ${\mathrm{limsup}}_n{B}_n\subseteq A$.

For the reverse inclusion, fix an outcome for which only finitely many $B_n$ occur. Choose $N$ such that $X_m\le a_m$ for every $m\ge N$. The finite prefix has a finite maximum $K={\max }_{1\le m<N}{X}_m$ when $N>1$; there is no prefix to check when $N=1$. Since $a_n\to \infty$, for every sufficiently large $n$ that prefix satisfies $K\le a_n$. For the remaining indices $N\le m\le n$, the nondecreasing thresholds giveThus ${\max }_{m\le n}{X}_m\le a_n$ for every sufficiently large $n$, so only finitely many $A_n$ occur. Taking the contrapositive proves the reverse inclusion, and hence the pointwise event equalityThis exceedance equivalence for increasing thresholds is deterministic. Its proof uses both monotonicity of $a_n$ and divergence to $+\infty$; it does not require independence or identical probability distributions.

The tail sigma-algebra of this sequence isFor each fixed $r$, the preceding event equality givesEvery event on the right is determined by coordinates with index at least $r$. Therefore $A\in \sigma (X_r,X_{r+1},\dots )$ for every $r$, and $A\in \mathcal{T}$. The random variables $X_n$ are independent, so Kolmogorov's zero–one law applies: every tail event has probability zero or one. Hence $\mathbb{P}(A)\in \{0,1\}$.

The role of independence can also be seen directly. A tail event is independent of each finite initial sigma-algebra $\sigma (X_1,\dots ,X_m)$. The Monotone class theorem extends this independence to $\sigma (X_1,X_2,\dots )$; since $A$ itself lies there, it is independent of itself. Thus $\mathbb{P}(A)=\mathbb{P}(A{)}^2$.^[ref]

For $B_n=\{X_n>a_n\}$, the definition of the common cumulative distribution function givesThe strict exceedance matters here: an atom of a measure at $a_n$ belongs to $\{X_n\le a_n\}$, so it is already included in $F(a_n)$. The events $B_n$ are mutually independent events, since each depends on a separate member of the independent random variables $X_n$.

If ${\sum }_n(1-F(a_n))<\infty$, countable subadditivity gives, for every $N$,Continuity of probability then gives $\mathbb{P}({\mathrm{limsup}}_n{B}_n)=0$. This is the First Borel-Cantelli lemma and does not need independence.

If the series diverges, independence and $1-u\le e^{-u}$ give, for every fixed $N$,Taking $M\to \infty$ shows that the probability of no exceedance after $N$ is zero. A countable union over $N$ shows that finitely many exceedances has probability zero. This is the Second Borel-Cantelli lemma. Together with the preceding event equality, it proves

The conditions on the cumulative distribution function imply $0<X_n\le 2$ almost surely. With ${\mathcal{H}}_n=\sigma (X_1,\dots ,X_n)$, adjoin $Y_0=1$ and the trivial ${\mathcal{H}}_0$. The random variables $Y_n$ are nonnegative, adapted, and bounded by $2^n$ at each fixed time. Independence and $\mathbb{E}{X}_{n+1}=1$ giveThus this is the product martingale from independent mean-one factors, with $\mathbb{E}{Y}_n=1$. The almost sure supermartingale convergence theorem states that a nonnegative supermartingale converges almost surely to a finite integrable random variable. Applied to this nonnegative martingale, it shows $Y_n\to Y_{\infty }<\infty$ almost surely. Every convergent real sequence is bounded, so ${\sup }_{n\ge 1}{Y}_n<\infty$ almost surely.

The printed maximum can in fact be taken literally here. If $X_1=1$ almost surely, all products equal $1$. Otherwise the strict Jensen equality criterion, applied to the strictly convex function $t\mapsto -\sqrt{t}$ on $(0,\infty )$, gives $q=\mathbb{E}\sqrt{X_1}<1$. Independence yields $\mathbb{E}\sqrt{Y_n}=q^n$. By Markov's inequality, ${\sum }_n\mathbb{P}(Y_n>\epsilon )\le {\epsilon }^{-1/2}{\sum }_n{q}^n<\infty$ for every $\epsilon >0$. The First Borel-Cantelli lemma and the countable choices $\epsilon =1/m$ give $Y_n\to 0$ almost surely. Since $Y_1>0$, a sequence with this limit attains its positive supremum among finitely many initial terms. This is an instance of fractional moment decay of independent mean-one products.

Use the nonnegative martingale $(Y_n)$ and filtration $({\mathcal{H}}_n)$ established above. Fix a finite $n$ and letFor $j<n$, $\{T\le j\}$ is the union of the threshold-crossing events up to $j$, so $T$ is a bounded stopping time. The optional stopping theorem for a martingale at a bounded stopping time gives $\mathbb{E}{Y}_T=\mathbb{E}{Y}_0=1$. On $H$ one has $Y_T\ge \lambda$; on its complement one still has $Y_T\ge 0$. ThereforeOnly a bounded stopping time has been used, so no extra uniform integrability assumption at an unbounded hitting time is implicit. This is also the Doob maximal inequality for a nonnegative submartingale specialized to a mean-one martingale.

For $p>1$, the bound $X_k\le 2$ ensures the finite moment $m_p=\mathbb{E}{X}_1^p\le 2^p$. By Jensen's inequality, $m_p\ge (\mathbb{E}{X}_1{)}^p=1$. The process $Z_k=Y_k^p$ is an adapted, nonnegative integrable random variable at each time, and independence givesThus $(Z_k)$ is a submartingale, and $\mathbb{E}{Z}_n=m_p^n$. The Doob maximal inequality for a nonnegative submartingale states that $c\mathbb{P}({\max }_{k\le n}{Z}_k\ge c)\le \mathbb{E}{Z}_n$ for $c>0$. Apply it with $c={\lambda }^p$. Since the power function is increasing on $[0,\infty )$,Combining this with the preceding bound givesThe result is a bound on the running maximum, which is why a maximal inequality for a submartingale, rather than an estimate of the single terminal random variable, is needed.^[ref]