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The mean number of planets per surveyed star in a specified parameter bin. It need not equal the fraction of stars hosting at least one such planet. Inferring it from transits requires accounting for geometric transit probability, transit survey completeness and false positives.

The principal feature is the abundance of planets with radii of roughly one to a few Earth radii compared with large gas giants within the stated short-period sample. The smallest few plotted bins are of broadly similar height, followed by a substantial decline at larger sizes. Thus the figure supports a high occurrence of small planets relative to giants, rather than an indefinitely steep rise toward arbitrarily small sizes. The horizontal scale is logarithmic: one should compare counts in the displayed bins with their widths in $\ln R_p$, not mistake a bin count for a density per unit linear radius.

The vertical axis is an average number of planets per target star. This exoplanet occurrence rate need not equal the fraction of stars hosting a planet, because one star can host several. The restriction to periods below $85$ days also matters: the figure is not a census of distant gas giants or of every planet in a system. Neither the detailed reduction procedure nor the raw detection counts are specified in the caption, so they cannot be reconstructed uniquely from the histogram.

Selection effects actually make the small-planet population harder to see. A full, undiluted exoplanet transit depth is approximately $(R_p/R_{\star }{)}^2$. For independent photometric errors of fractional size ${\sigma }_f$ per sample, an idealized detection signal-to-noise ratio iswhere $N_{\mathrm{in}}$ counts in-transit samples. At fixed star and orbital period, halving planet radius reduces this amplitude by four. Fainter hosts, correlated stellar noise, gaps and transit vetting reduce transit survey completeness further. Geometric transit probability also falls with orbital distance, $p_{\mathrm{tr}}\simeq R_{\star }/a\propto P^{-2/3}$ for fixed stellar mass. For a fixed observing baseline and cadence, the small-planet circular duration law gives $N_{\mathrm{in}}\propto P^{-2/3}$ and approximately $\mathrm{SNR}\propto R_p^2{P}^{-1/3}$.

Recovering an intrinsic exoplanet occurrence rate therefore requires correcting for geometric alignments, incomplete recovery and false positives. An illustrative estimator for a radius-period bin iswhere $C_j$ is the recovery probability over the relevant target sample and $w_j$ accounts for candidate reliability. Real analyses must average these probabilities over heterogeneous targets and measurement uncertainty; the formula indicates the required weights, not a reconstruction of the unpublished inputs to this figure. A primary Kepler space telescope analysis explicitly models both false positives and incomplete detection to infer occurrence.^[ref]

Thus the apparent preference for small planets cannot be explained by their being photometrically easier to detect. Small transits are harder. A plateau in occurrence below about twice Earth's size was independently reported using synthetic-transit injection and recovery, though that study used a different $5$–$50$-day selection and is not identified here as the source of the exam's plot.^[ref]

The natural physical framework is core accretion in a protoplanetary disk. Most initial disk mass is gas, principally hydrogen and helium; a much smaller fraction is solid material. Protoplanetary dust coagulation first assembles aggregates through low-speed sticking. Settling and differential drag help concentrate solids, but bouncing, the fragmentation barrier to dust growth and radial drift of solids in a gas disk prevent a simple assumption that every collision grows a body smoothly to planetary size. Concentration in dust traps or through streaming instability, followed by gravitational collapse of a dense solid population, provides routes to planetesimals. Subsequent collisions must dissipate sufficient relative energy to bind material rather than disrupt it.

Once sufficiently large planetesimals exist, gravitational focusing enhances their accretion cross-sections:When background random velocities remain small, larger bodies grow disproportionately fast in runaway planetesimal growth. As they become massive enough to stir the surrounding population, oligarchic growth develops: several planetary embryos occupy neighboring feeding zones, while much of the remaining solid material resides in smaller planetesimals. Heating the planetesimal random motions weakens gravitational focusing, and local depletion drives the embryos toward an isolation mass. Collisions among embryos can continue assembly after gas dispersal.

This solid-building pathway naturally produces many modest cores. Producing a large gas giant requires an additional, time-sensitive step: a sufficiently massive core must acquire and cool a gaseous envelope while disk gas remains available. Gas captured by a low-mass core releases gravitational potential energy; the envelope's ability to radiate that energy governs its contraction and further accretion. A characteristic cooling estimate iswhere $E_{\mathrm{tot}}$ includes the envelope’s gravitational and internal energies. This states an energy budget rather than a calibrated accretion timescale. Increasing core mass generally facilitates faster gas growth in the appropriate envelope regime. The critical core mass for gas accretion depends on opacity, solid accretion heating and disk conditions; no one exact threshold follows from the histogram. If envelope cooling becomes rapid enough and gas supply persists, runaway gas accretion can produce a giant. If core growth or cooling is too slow, protoplanetary disk dispersal removes the reservoir first, leaving a rocky core or a smaller planet with a limited envelope.

The snow line changes the supply of condensed solids: where water ice can survive, additional solid material can help cores grow. Its location depends on the evolving disk temperature and pressure, so there is no universal orbital radius at which giants must form. Short-period planets need not have assembled entirely at their present locations. Planetary migration can carry cores and giants inward; scattering and collisions can further reshape their orbits. Pebble accretion is another way to supply solids rapidly to embryos, but its efficiency depends on particle coupling and the available pebble flow. These processes alter the distribution without requiring every core to become a giant.

Radius also is not a linear proxy for mass. A relatively small hydrogen-helium envelope can increase a planet's radius substantially, so some planets with a few Earth radii need not be purely rocky. Contraction as planets cool and irradiation-driven atmospheric escape can subsequently reduce their radii. Hence the final histogram combines solid growth, gas capture, migration and later thermal evolution. In particular, the smallest bins need not all share one composition or one formation location.

Direct fragmentation through gravitational instability of an astrophysical disk is an alternative route to massive gaseous objects. It requires a sufficiently self-gravitating disk, described locally by Toomre's stability criterion, together with sufficiently rapid cooling for bound fragments to survive. It does not naturally explain the dominant population of small close-in cores by itself, although migration or further evolution can change the locations of fragments. The observed abundance of small planets is therefore consistent with solid cores commonly forming while only a minority acquire a massive gas envelope before disk dispersal. It does not uniquely prove a particular prescription for each uncertain growth stage.

The physical explanation is widespread core formation combined with restricted access to runaway gas accretion. The strongest observational conclusion concerns small versus giant planets in the stated period range, after accounting for selection; the figure alone does not determine a universal core threshold, a unique mass distribution, or the population beyond the period cut.

The observed population is the parent population filtered by an astronomical selection function and measurement errors. Malmquist bias arises because a flux-limited galaxy selection admits luminous objects from larger volumes: in Euclidean space $d_{\max }\propto L^{1/2}$ and $V_{\max }\propto L^{3/2}$. Thus observed luminosity counts are weighted by $V_{\max }$. Even a nominal standard candle with intrinsic scatter is preferentially observed on its bright side near the limit; ignoring this can underestimate distances. A volume-limited sample or a justified $1/V_{\max }$ weighting helps, subject to completeness, geometry and evolution assumptions. Separately, Eddington bias occurs when noise scatters a steeply rising population across a detection threshold: more faint objects enter than bright objects leave.

Lutz-Kelker bias concerns noisy stellar parallaxes and population/selection weighting. Locally uniform spatial density gives $p(r)\propto r^2$ and, by changing variables, $p(\varpi )\propto {\varpi }^{-4}$ over the model's valid finite range. More distant stars are available to scatter into a parallax-limited sample than nearby stars to scatter out. Inverting an uncertain parallax also introduces a distinct nonlinear-estimation problem. There is no universal magnitude correction for every star: spatial density, luminosity, extinction and how the sample was selected all matter. The classical treatment motivates this issue; it should not replace an explicit generative model.^[ref]

Bayes' theorem combines the measurement likelihood function with a justified prior distribution. For example, with a Gaussian parallax error and consistent distance/parallax units,A proper distance prior for parallax inference might have $p(r)\propto r^2{e}^{-r/L}$ with a justified scale $L$; extending $r^2$ to infinity gives an improper posterior here. Negative measured parallaxes remain valid noisy data. For selection conditioning in Bayesian inference, distinguish individual inference from population inference: if selection is determined entirely by the exact data already conditioned on, it adds no further information about that individual's parameters. For population parameters $\Lambda$, the selected-data likelihood must instead include the detection normalization $\alpha (\Lambda )=\int S(d)p(d\mid \Lambda )dd$. Applying a cut twice is also an error.

Selection can depend on surface brightness, angular resolution, dust, sky coverage, colour and observing cadence as well as total flux. Crowding and unresolved binaries bias distance calibrators. Transit surveys favour large planets and short periods, with an additional geometric transit probability approximately $R_{\star }/a$ for small planets on circular orbits; injection/recovery tests quantify the remaining transit survey completeness. Cluster catalogues select noisy mass proxies from a steep abundance distribution. Planck's 2013 SZ catalogue explicitly characterized detection completeness and reliability rather than identifying every detection with an unbiased mass census.^[ref] Calibrators, artificial-source tests and a forward model of detection, measurement and follow-up are the practical checks on any correction.