Let count the copies of the complete graph in the binomial random graph . By linearity of the expected value and independence of distinct edges,
Throughout, is sufficiently large that . We have , and .
First, since ,
The first moment method proves .
For the existence of a -clique, put and . Since ,
This alone is insufficient: we must control the variance via the overlap formula for the variance of a clique count. Let indicate that a given -set spans a clique. If , the two copies share edges, so
For their edge sets are disjoint and the covariance vanishes, even when they share one vertex. Counting ordered pairs of -sets gives the exact formula
This includes the diagonal case .
To bound the overlap factor, regard it as the probability that a uniformly chosen -set intersects a fixed in exactly vertices. A union bound over the possible specified -subsets of yields
Here is a falling factorial, and the last bound holds for . Therefore
For , the concave quadratic is minimized at an endpoint. Its endpoint values are and , both at least . Thus every power of in the last sum is at most , and
because the logarithm of its numerator is . The second moment method, or Chebyshev's inequality directly, gives . Finally, every larger clique contains a -clique, so the absence of excludes all larger sizes. The clique number is exactly with high probability: