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A convex chain between two fixed points inside a triangle is a finite point set whose union with the endpoints forms the vertices of a convex polygon, with the endpoint segment as one boundary edge. In the triangle $0\le y\le x\le 1$, with endpoints $(0,0)$ and $(1,1)$, its ordered lower boundary has strictly increasing segment slopes. Every subset of its intermediate vertices remains a convex chain. This hereditary property lets selected point coordinates certify the existence of a long chain.

Take the sampled points to be independent with the uniform distribution on $T=\{(x,y):0\le y\le x\le 1\}$. Its area is $1/2$, so its probability density is two. With probability one there are no coincidences, equal relevant coordinates or collinear triples. We give an exact first moment method argument; no tangent construction is needed.

First count the probability that $k$ labelled points, together with the endpoints, form a convex chain. In their order along the lower boundary, write their coordinates as $(x_i,y_i)$, $1\le i\le k$, and put $(x_0,y_0)=(0,0)$, $(x_{k+1},y_{k+1})=(1,1)$. They necessarily satisfyIndeed the lower boundary of the convex polygon is the graph of a convex piecewise linear function. Its segment slopes strictly increase; the first is positive because the first point lies above the $x$ axis, making all later slopes positive too.

Set $u_i=x_i-x_{i-1}$ and $v_i=y_i-y_{i-1}$ for $1\le i\le k+1$. Both spacing vectors lie in the open probability simplex, with ${\sum }_i{u}_i={\sum }_i{v}_i=1$. The coordinate-monotone region has volume $1/(k!{)}^2$. The change to the first $k$ spacings in each vector has Jacobian one, and each simplex has uniform volume measure. Simultaneous permutation of all $k+1$ pairs $(u_i,v_i)$ preserves this product volume measure. Except on a null set of ties, the ratios $v_i/u_i$ therefore have all $(k+1)!$ possible orders with equal volume.

Strict increase of these ratios is exactly the convex chain condition. It also puts the intermediate points below the diagonal: the weighted mean of all slopes is ${\sum }_i{u}_i(v_i/u_i)=1$, and each proper initial weighted mean is strictly smaller than one, so $y_j<x_j$ for $j\le k$. Thus it suffices to impose the slope order on the whole coordinate-monotone region; no additional triangle restriction is needed.

The volume for one specified label order is consequently $1/((k!{)}^2(k+1)!)$. There are $k!$ disjoint orders of the labels, and the joint uniform-triangle density is $2^k$. Hence the convex-chain probability in a triangle isFor example $p_1=1$ and $p_2=1/3$.

Let $C_k$ count the $k$-element subsets of the $n$ sampled points that are convex chains. By linearity of expectation, $\mathbb{E}{C}_k=\left(\genfrac{}{}{0ex}{}{n}{k}\right)p_k$. If $L_n\ge k$, an optimal chain contains a $k$-vertex subchain, since removing vertices from a convex polygon preserves convex position of the remaining vertices. Therefore, by the first moment method,We used $\left(\genfrac{}{}{0ex}{}{n}{k}\right)\le n^k/k!$, $(k+1)!\ge k!$, and $k!\ge (k/e{)}^k$, the last following from ${\sum }_{j=1}^k\log j\ge {\int }_1^k\log xdx$.

Take $k=\lceil 4e{n}^{1/3}\rceil$. If $k\le n$, the last bound is at most $32^{-k}<1/2$; if $k>n$, the event is empty. Every integer median $m_n$ must then satisfy $m_n<k$, and thereforeThe hint's curve $y=x^2$ is a parabola, not a hyperbola. The exact counting argument above proves the upper bound directly. The same chain probability is recorded in Ambrus and Bárány's analysis of longest convex chains.

A triangulation of a convex polygon divides a convex polygon into triangles using diagonals between its existing vertices of a polytope, with no diagonal crossings in the interior. For $m\ge 3$ vertices it uses $m-3$ diagonals and produces $m-2$ triangles. Fixing one boundary edge, its adjacent triangle separates two smaller polygon regions; summing over the possible third vertices of a polytope gives the Catalan recurrence. Thus the number of triangulations of a convex polygon is $C_{m-2}$, with $C_n$ the Catalan number. A quadrilateral has two choices and a pentagon has five.