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For one target galaxy, an encounter with relative speed $u$ sweeps a cylinder of volume $\pi R^{2}udt$ in time $dt$. Multiplication by the number density gives the encounter rate $\Gamma =\pi R^{2}N⟨v_{\mathrm{rel}}⟩$. Thus the geometric galaxy-encounter rate givesThis is the expected number of mergers in the geometric model. For independent encounters, the Poisson process probability of at least one is $P_{\ge 1}=1-e^{-\mu }$, so the displayed linear probability is valid for rare encounters, $\mu \ll 1$. There is no factor of one-half for a single target; that factor would enter a count of distinct pairs across the whole population.

For an illustrative group environment, take $R=20\mathrm{kpc}=0.02\mathrm{Mpc}$, $N\sim 1{\mathrm{Mpc}}^{-3}$, $⟨v_{\mathrm{rel}}⟩\sim 300\mathrm{km}{\mathrm{s}}^{-1}$ and a Hubble time of order $10^{10}$ years, or $3\times 10^{17}\mathrm{s}$. The path length is about $9\times 10^{19}\mathrm{km}\simeq 3\mathrm{Mpc}$, using the stated distance conversion. HenceThe estimate scales linearly with environment density and quadratically with the adopted merger radius. It is an order-of-magnitude model estimate, not a universal observed merger fraction; reducing the illustrative density by a factor of one hundred reduces the estimate by the same factor.

For the tidal calculation, use the relative potential convention in which acceleration is $\nabla \psi$. Expand the point-mass potential about the target centre:The constant does not exert a force. The linear term accelerates the target centre and is subtracted in its freely falling frame. The remaining leading quadrupolar point-mass tidal potential isThe condition $r<r_p$ permits the convergent expansion; using only this term is the leading tidal approximation, accurate when the target radius is small compared with the closest separation.

The given impact and velocity directions imply ${\mathbf{r}}_p(t)=(p,0,vt)$. This trajectory is in the $x,z$ plane, correcting the incompatible printed $x,y$ plane. In the impulse approximation, hold the stellar position fixed while integrating the tidal tensor:For $s=vt/p$, the needed integrals arewith the mixed integral zero by oddness. Thus the integrated tidal tensor of a straight-line flyby is $2G{m}_p\mathrm{diag}(1,-1,0)/(v{p}^2)$ andThere is stretching along the impact direction, compression in the other transverse direction and no net kick along the path.

Write $\mathbf{u}$ for the star's initial velocity, distinguishing it from the perturber speed $v$. Its specific energy change is $\mathbf{u}\cdot \Delta \mathbf{v}+\frac{1}{2}|\Delta \mathbf{v}{|}^2$. The no-correlation assumption removes the first term on averaging; it is not an identity for every individual star. The mean specific heating at a given position is thereforeFor a spherical target, the mass-weighted averages satisfy $⟨x^2⟩=⟨y^2⟩=⟨z^2⟩=⟨r^2⟩/3$. The tidal impulse heating of a spherical galaxy is consequentlyHere $⟨r^2⟩=m_g^{-1}\int r^2\rho d^{3}r$ is assumed finite. Notice the change from specific energy to total energy after multiplying by $m_g$.

For two equal targets, each gains the same internal energy, so $\Delta U_{\mathrm{tot}}=8G^2{m}_g^3⟨r^2⟩/(3v^2{p}^4)$. Their relative-motion reduced mass is $m_g/2$. If $v$ denotes their relative speed at infinity, their initial orbital energy is $E_{\mathrm{orb}}=\frac{1}{2}(m_g/2)v^2=m_g{v}^2/4$. Internal tidal heating comes from this orbital energy. In the tidal capture of galaxies model, capture occurs if $\Delta U_{\mathrm{tot}}>E_{\mathrm{orb}}$, which gives the equal-mass tidal-capture thresholdCapture allows further passages and eventual merger in this simplified picture.

The encounter lasts roughly $p/v$. The impulse approximation needs $\Omega p/v\ll 1$, so that a star barely moves during the tide. When $v/p<\Omega$, stellar orbits respond during the perturbation and the kicks can cancel. Adiabatic invariance of an orbital action produces adiabatic shielding of tidal encounters, rather than the impulsive heating used above. The capture inequality cannot be extrapolated into that slow-encounter regime.

A small-angle gravitational encounter between a test star and a field star of mass $m$ gives a transverse kick $\Delta v_{\perp }\simeq 2Gm/(bu)$, where $b$ is the impact parameter and $u$ the relative speed. For number density $n$, encounters in $b,b+db$ occur at rate $2\pi bdbnu$. Independent kicks add in mean square, giving the random-walk derivation of stellar relaxationThe Coulomb logarithm in stellar dynamics has $b_{\max }$ of order system size $r_s$, and $b_{\min }$ of order the strong-deflection scale $Gm/u^2$. For a virialized $N$-star system, $u^2\sim GNm/r_s$, so $\Lambda$ is of order $N$. The stellar relaxation time is the time for accumulated velocity variance to become comparable with $u^2$:Using $n\sim 3N/(4\pi r_s^3)$ gives $t_{\mathrm{rel}}\sim [N/(6\ln N)]r_s/u$. With a diameter-crossing convention $T_{\mathrm{cross}}\sim 2r_s/u$, this is $[N/(12\ln N)]T_{\mathrm{cross}}$, conventionally rounded toThe coefficient is approximate: spatial profile, velocity averages and crossing-time convention change it by factors of order unity. The robust result is $N/\ln N$ crossing times.

For $N\sim 10^{10}$ and $T_{\mathrm{cross}}\sim 10^8$ years, the estimate is about $4\times 10^{15}$ years, enormously longer than a Hubble time. Most galaxies therefore behave as collisionless stellar systems. Dense nuclei and star clusters can relax more rapidly. Negligible stellar encounters do not mean negligible collective gravitational instabilities.

Define the mass-weighted galactic distribution function by $dM=F(\mathbf{x},\mathbf{v},t)d^{3}x{d}^{3}v$, so $\rho =\int F{d}^{3}v$. Hamiltonian gravitational motion preserves phase space volume by the Liouville theorem in Hamiltonian mechanics. In the collisionless regime no encounter term redistributes stars between neighbouring phase space trajectories, so $dF/dt=0$. With acceleration $\nabla \psi$, the Collisionless Boltzmann equation is

For a steadily rotating galactic bar, write the inertial polar angle as ${\varphi }_{\mathrm{I}}=\varphi +{\Omega }_{b}t$. The inertial radial and angular equations are $\ddot{R}-R{\dot{\varphi }}_{\mathrm{I}}^2={\psi }_R$ and $R{\ddot{\varphi }}_{\mathrm{I}}+2\dot{R}{\dot{\varphi }}_{\mathrm{I}}={\psi }_{\varphi }/R$. Substitution gives the equations of motion in a rotating frame:Here the velocities are measured in the bar frame. Set $v_R=\dot{R}$, $v_{\varphi }=R\dot{\varphi }$ and define the positive-force rotating-frame relative effective potentialThe centrifugal sign is positive in this relative-potential convention. The characteristics areConsequently the rotating-frame collisionless Boltzmann equation isFor these planar equations, integrate over $d{v}_{R}d{v}_{\varphi }$ and interpret $\rho$ as the planar or vertically integrated mass density. Define $\rho ⟨A⟩=\int AFd{v}_{R}d{v}_{\varphi }$. Boundary terms in velocity vanish for a sufficiently decaying distribution.

Let the velocity accelerations above be $A_R,A_{\varphi }$. Their velocity divergence is ${\partial }_{v_R}{A}_R+{\partial }_{v_{\varphi }}{A}_{\varphi }=-v_R/R$. Thus integration by parts in the zeroth moment contributes $\rho ⟨v_R⟩/R$, producing the cylindrical continuity equation for a rotating stellar systemThis is conservation of mass: change of density balances flux through the radial and azimuthal sides of a small cylindrical element. The factor $R$ is geometric; the physical phase space measure is $RdRd\varphi d{v}_{R}d{v}_{\varphi }$.

For the radial first moment, multiply the rotating-frame collisionless Boltzmann equation by $v_R$. Its velocity integrations are $\int v_R{A}_R{F}_{v_R}{d}^{2}v=-\rho ⟨A_R⟩$ and $\int v_R{A}_{\varphi }{F}_{v_{\varphi }}{d}^{2}v=\rho ⟨v_R^2⟩/R$. Hence the radial cylindrical Jeans equations in a rotating frame areFor the azimuthal first moment, the $A_R$ velocity integral vanishes, while ${\partial }_{v_{\varphi }}(v_{\varphi }{A}_{\varphi })={\psi }_{\mathrm{eff},\varphi }/R-2{\Omega }_b{v}_R-2v_R{v}_{\varphi }/R$. This givesThe Jeans equations are local momentum-balance equations. The second moments include streaming momentum flux and random-velocity stress, while gravity, centrifugal acceleration and Coriolis acceleration supply the frame-dependent forces. They do not by themselves close the full distribution: a stress prescription or a galactic distribution function is also needed.

Normalize the present scale factor to $a(t_0)=1$. In a flat universe containing radiation in cosmology, pressureless matter, and a cosmological constant, the Friedmann equation iswhere ${\Omega }_{r,0}+{\Omega }_{m,0}+{\Omega }_{\Lambda ,0}=1$. Since $dt=da/(aH)$, the age of an FLRW universe isFor a matter-only flat Einstein-de Sitter universe,Taking the present value $H_0\simeq 70\mathrm{km}{\mathrm{s}}^{-1}\mathrm{Mp}{\mathrm{c}}^{-1}$, for which the Hubble time is $H_0^{-1}\simeq 14.0\mathrm{Gyr}$, gives

Ignoring gravitational focusing, a galaxy sweeps a cylinder of volume $\pi R^2{v}_{\mathrm{rel}}T$. Multiplying this by the number density $N$ of target galaxies and averaging the relative speed gives the mean encounter countFor independent encounters modeled by a Poisson process, the probability of at least one galaxy merger is $1-e^{-\mu }$. The printed expression $P=\mu$ is its rare-encounter approximation $\mu \ll 1$; it is not an exact probability for arbitrary $T$.

For an illustrative present-day field population take an effective merger impact parameter $R=20\mathrm{kpc}=0.02\mathrm{Mpc}$, $N=10^{-2}{\mathrm{Mpc}}^{-3}$, and $⟨v_{\mathrm{rel}}⟩=200\mathrm{km}{\mathrm{s}}^{-1}$. These are assumed order-of-magnitude inputs, not precise observational measurements. Taking a Hubble time of $T\simeq 1.4\times 10^{10}\mathrm{yr}\simeq 4.4\times 10^{17}\mathrm{s}$, the given distance conversion yieldsand henceThus the geometric field estimate is of order $10^{-5}$ to $10^{-4}$ per Hubble time. It scales as $R^{2}N⟨v_{\mathrm{rel}}⟩T$ and is very sensitive to environment and the adopted effective merger radius. Enhanced density in groups, gravitational focusing, and the evolution of the galaxy population are all omitted; this number is not a prediction of the full cosmological merger fraction.

Now use the stipulated rapid, distant encounter. The consistent rectilinear trajectory isWith the stated impact parameter along $x$ and velocity along $z$, this trajectory lies in the $xz$-plane. The original PDF's reference to the $xy$-plane is a typo; the local TeX also corrupts the impact-parameter direction. The original PDF fixes that direction as $x$.

Use the positive potential $G{m}_p/|\mathbf{R}-\mathbf{r}|$, whose gradient is the attractive acceleration under the question's sign convention. Its multipole expansion isThe first term has no force; the linear term accelerates the entire galaxy and disappears in the frame following its centre of mass. The leading internal tidal potential is thereforeThis is a quadrupole approximation valid for $r\ll p$, rather than an exact equality for every $r<p$. Its acceleration tidal tensor acts on $\mathbf{r}$ asIn the impulse approximation, each stellar position is held fixed during the flyby and the velocity kick is the integral of this acceleration. Put $s=vt$; terms odd in $s$ integrate to zero, whileThe integrated diagonal coefficients of the tidal tensor are consequently $(2,-2,0)/(v{p}^2)$, givingThe encounter stretches the galaxy along the impact parameter, compresses it along $y$, and gives no net leading kick along the flyby direction.

Denote the pre-encounter stellar velocity by $\mathbf{u}$, to distinguish it from the relative flyby speed $v$. The instantaneous change of specific kinetic energy isUncorrelated kicks with zero mean cross term imply $⟨\mathbf{u}\cdot \Delta \mathbf{v}⟩=0$, so the phase-averaged heating at a specified position isFor an individual star the cross term need not vanish: the formula is an ensemble or orbital-phase average. Integrating over a spherical galaxy of mass $m_g$, symmetry gives $⟨x^2⟩=⟨y^2⟩=⟨z^2⟩=⟨r^2⟩/3$. Therefore the total tidal heating isFor two identical galaxies, each receives this heating with $m_p=m_g$. Adding both contributions gives

In the centre of mass frame, equal masses approach with speeds $v/2$ if $v$ is their relative speed at infinity. The initial orbital energy iswhere $m_g/2$ is the reduced mass. The orbital potential energy vanishes at infinite separation. Within the weak-deflection approximation this asymptotic speed is also the nearly constant speed used in the flyby calculation.

Conservation of energy transfers the positive internal heating out of the relative orbit. Tidal capture of galaxies occurs in this model if $E_{\mathrm{orb}}-\Delta E_{\mathrm{int}}<0$, which givesThe equality is marginal capture. A bound pair still needs subsequent evolution to coalesce, so the result is an approximate capture criterion used here as a merger criterion. Its right-hand side has dimensions of length times speed, as required.

The impulse approximation requires the flyby duration $\tau \sim p/v$ to be short compared with the stellar dynamical time ${\Omega }^{-1}$, namely $v/p\gg \Omega$. If $v/p<\Omega$, a star moves substantially during the encounter. Its orbital adiabatic invariance of an orbital action suppresses net heating by a slowly varying tidal field: adiabatic shielding of tidal encounters replaces the frozen-position calculation. The divergent $v^{-2}$ heating predicted by extrapolating the impulsive formula to slow encounters is therefore spurious. Close passages with $p$ comparable to the galaxy size or strong gravitational focusing also lie outside the derivation.

The measured Hubble time would give the Einstein-de Sitter agewhich is less than the measured $12\mathrm{Gyr}$ age of stars that must themselves be younger than the universe. The measurements are therefore incompatible with an Einstein-de Sitter universe. For the stated spatially flat Lambda-CDM model, direct evaluation of the preceding integral givesand hence $t_0\simeq 13.5\mathrm{Gyr}$. The period of accelerating expansion caused by the cosmological constant therefore allows an age consistent with the stellar lower bound.

The matter-like scaling is special to a quadratic minimum. More generally, the effective equation of state of an oscillating scalar field in $V\propto |\varphi {|}^n$ isFor example, a quartic minimum has $⟨w⟩=1/3$ and redshifts like radiation in cosmology. Potentials without a stable minimum, oscillations whose period is not short relative to the Hubble time, and significant decay of the inflaton into other particles also invalidate the matter-like argument.