Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2020 ib Paper 1 19H a Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-09-29
Let . The likelihood function isOn its feasible range , this is decreasing in . Therefore the maximum likelihood estimator is
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2020 ii Paper 2 28J Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-09-29
PutThe log-likelihood, apart from an additive constant, isOver the full parameter space its maximum-likelihood estimates are . Under , maximizing over the nuisance parameter gives . Thus the generalized likelihood-ratio test statistic, in the convention , is
Under , the normal-sample decomposition givesWriting , the central limit theorem for a sum of squared independent standard normal variables yields . Hence Slutsky theorem givesand in particular .
For , Taylor theorem at givesConsequentlyby the continuous mapping theorem and Slutsky's theorem. Since the square of a standard normal variable has the chi-squared distribution with one degree of freedom,
Fix . For an observation with covariates , putand let be the standard-normal distribution function. The four conditional cell probabilities arewhere the first index is and the second is .
Define as any maximizer of the log likelihoodThen is the requested estimator for the fixed sensitivity value .
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2023 iii Paper 342 2 b Solution 2026-09-28
A syndrome determines a phase-error set only up to multiplication by : an error of weight and its complement of weight have the same error syndrome. Their probability ratio isFor , maximum likelihood therefore chooses the representative of smaller weight. This is exactly majority-vote decoding of a repetition code: correction succeeds when fewer than half the qubits are flipped, with a random tie-break at when is even.
If , then and . For every fixed , the distance from the mean to the decision boundary in standard deviations isThus the logical failure probability tends to zero, in fact exponentially by a Chernoff bound. At the two representatives are equiprobable and decoding cannot improve with . Hence
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2024 iii Paper 207 5 b Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-09-25
Choose a parametric baseline hazard and fitUnder independent right censoring, the full survival likelihood isEstimate by maximum likelihood estimation and test with a likelihood-ratio test, Wald test, or score test. Equality of the two event-time distributions is exactly within this model.
Poisson spike-train likelihood fitting 2026-10-14
For a stimulus-conditioned Inhomogeneous Poisson process, the event log-likelihood is the displayed expression. A causal filter expansion can be fitted by maximum likelihood estimation, with a smoothness or size penalty and held-out validation. The integral term penalizes predicted spikes that did not occur; fitting only stimulus values at observed spikes omits this essential part.
Potential event time 2026-10-05
A potential event time is a support point permitted in the discrete event-time distribution used to derive the Kaplan–Meier estimator by maximum likelihood estimation. The support must include every observed exact event time. Additional points with a nonempty risk set but no observed event receive zero fitted event mass.
Power law Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-10-13
A power law is a relation , with fixed constants and . For positive , any real number is allowed. Its useful feature is a simple scaling rule:The same proportional change of input produces the same proportional change of output, independently of the starting value. The exponent controls that response; the coefficient fixes the magnitude.
For example, the area of a circle is . Doubling the radius multiplies its area by four, and tripling it multiplies the area by nine. The volume of a sphere is : the same changes multiply its volume by eight and twenty-seven. The distinction explains why similarly shaped objects do not preserve their ratio of surface area to volume when their size changes.
When the output is positive, a logarithm turns the power law into a straight-line relation. Using positive reference values and ,These ratios are dimensionless quantities, so the formula also applies to physical measurements with units. Plotting both ratios on a logarithmic scale gives a line of slope . Changing a unit changes the numerical coefficient, while the exponent stays the same. Positive describes increasing values; negative describes decreasing values; gives a constant. The zero coefficient is a degenerate case with no useful logarithmic slope.
Exact scaling is stronger than regular variation. The function has a doubling ratio tending to four, but its logarithmic correction keeps growing. The diagram contrasts it with the exact power law .
Exact quadratic scaling and a logarithmic correction have different finite doubling ratios, even though the correction leaves the limiting exponent unchanged
. Details. A power law for a probability density and a power law for a tail probability have different exponents. For a Pareto distribution with and lower endpoint one,The tail probability has exponent ; differentiating it and changing sign gives the probability density exponent . Confusing them changes the interpretation of a fitted exponent. The normalizing coefficient and lower endpoint also matter: a decreasing power law is not automatically a valid probability density over the entire positive real line.
The appearance of a line over a finite logarithmic range is evidence to investigate, rather than a proof of an exact power law or its mechanism. In their study of power-law distributions, Clauset, Shalizi and Newman combine maximum likelihood estimation, goodness-of-fit tests and comparisons with alternative models; their abstract explains why ordinary least-squares fitting can give misleading results for tail data. See Aaron Clauset, Cosma Rohilla Shalizi and M. E. J. Newman, Power-law distributions in empirical data, SIAM Review 51 (2009), 661–703. The scaling rule is mathematically exact when it defines a model; whether a dataset supports that model is a question of statistical inference.
Statistical estimation 2026-10-07
Statistical estimation uses observed data to infer numerical properties of a population or model. A point estimator gives a value, while a confidence interval describes uncertainty with a specified coverage property. Maximum likelihood estimation is one approach; bias, variance, identifiability and the sampling or selection mechanism all affect an estimate's interpretation.
