The deterministic clock is , so . For , the martingale property of Brownian motion gives
Integrability follows from the Gaussian second moment. Thus is a martingale in the time-changed filtration.
Its increments have variance and are independent of . Equivalently, is a martingale. Since a quadratic variation starts at zero, its compensator must be normalized at :
The initial random variable does not contribute to quadratic variation. The expression alone would violate .
If is a P-Brownian motion, its starting value is deterministic, so Q5(a) applies. The correction has finite variation and does not alter quadratic variation; Q1(b) gives under Q. The Lévy characterization of Brownian motion therefore identifies as a Q-Brownian motion with the same starting value.
For the likelihood, use Wiener measure as the reference measure and write its coordinate as . Set
and let be its stochastic exponential. We must prove it is a true martingale; unverified large-horizon Novikov estimates would not suffice.
Fix and stop at , with . The bounded integrand satisfies the Novikov condition, so defines a probability on . By the result just established,
is Brownian under on this horizon. Therefore . The Gronwall inequality gives
The Doob L2 maximal inequality then bounds its squared expectation by , uniformly in . In particular . On the stopped and unstopped densities agree, so
Continuous Brownian paths are bounded on , and the indicators increase to one. The monotone convergence theorem proves . Since a nonnegative local martingale is a supermartingale, constant expectation at every time makes a true martingale.
Under its tilted measure, is Brownian and . The explicit linear solution gives uniqueness of this law, identifying it with . Consequently the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck likelihood relative to Wiener measure is
This is a finite-horizon density statement; it does not assert absolute continuity of the full infinite-horizon path laws.
A useful finite-horizon form of the Girsanov theorem is as follows. Let be a Brownian motion and an adapted, progressively measurable process with almost surely. Suppose its stochastic exponential
is a true martingale with mean one. The Novikov condition is a sufficient condition. Under the equivalent probability measure , the process is a Brownian motion.
For the proof sketch, the Itô formula gives . Integration by parts cancels the drift in , since from cancels . After localization, the Bayes formula for conditional expectation makes a continuous local martingale under . Its quadratic variation is still , because adding a finite-variation process does not change quadratic variation. One can see the Brownian conclusion directly: for real , the Itô formula makes a local martingale. Its modulus is bounded on the fixed horizon, so it is a true martingale. Thus
This is the conditional characteristic function of a centered normal distribution with variance , independent of the past. Continuity and these independent normal increments give the defining properties of Brownian motion.
Now put and , the standard normal distribution function. At zero drift the endpoint density of paths staying below is
Indeed, reflect the portion of a path after its first hitting time of . By continuity and the independent symmetric Brownian motion increments after this stopping time, reflection preserves its probability law and maps a crossing path ending at to a path ending at . This subtracts exactly from the unrestricted endpoint density; it is the Brownian reflection principle.
Taking the constant drift tilt in the Girsanov theorem makes under have the same law as under . Therefore the desired finite-horizon maximum of Brownian motion with drift has probability
Completing squares gives and . Hence
The maximum has no atom at a positive level, so strict and weak barrier inequalities agree. This also follows from continuity of the displayed distribution function. At the formula reduces to .
For the up-and-out power claim, write and use the risk-neutral measure for the Black-Scholes model, under which
with . The barrier survives exactly when . Its risk-neutral pricing value is
The factor inside the expectation is a mean-one Exponential martingale for Brownian motion. Under the probability tilted by it, is a Brownian motion, so the barrier process has drift . Applying the preceding survival formula yields
As , the bracket tends to one and the price becomes the discounted second moment . As , it tends to zero. If , use the deterministic path instead: the price is when , and zero otherwise. At , with , the price is simply .
A one-factor short-rate model uses a single scalar state, normally the short rate itself. Under the physical probability measure write
The second process is the continuous-time bank account. Specifying the physical diffusion alone does not determine bond prices: it must be accompanied by the market price of risk , or equivalently by pricing-measure dynamics. If the Girsanov theorem applies to the likelihood , then under the risk-neutral measure
Changing measure alters drift, not quadratic variation. The coefficients need conditions for a nonexplosive solution and for the relevant discounted prices and measure-change density to be true martingales.
A unit zero-coupon bond maturing at has price
The Markov property makes current time and rate sufficient state variables. Apply Itô formula to . Its drift must vanish, giving the short-rate bond pricing equation
Conversely, under the appropriate boundary and integrability conditions the Feynman-Kac formula identifies its solution with the displayed discounted expectation. For a terminal rate-dependent payoff , the same equation has terminal condition instead of one. A coupon bond is a sum of such unit-bond prices weighted by the coupon payments.
The common market price of risk can also be derived from trading, instead of being introduced arbitrarily for each maturity. Under the physical measure a bond's diffusion exposure is and its excess drift above bank financing is . For two nondegenerate traded bonds, combine their holdings to cancel their Brownian exposure. Absence of arbitrage requires that combination to earn the bank rate; hence their excess-drift-to-exposure ratios must coincide. Calling that common ratio yields the pricing equation with for every maturity. A derivative is then hedged locally by holding units of a nondegenerate bond and financing the remaining value through the bank account. Their Brownian exposures agree, and substituting both pricing equations proves the drift gain identity. This is short-rate diffusion hedging; it requires , rather than a bare assertion that one factor automatically gives completeness everywhere.
The entire yield curve is generated consistently from these bond prices. The continuously compounded yield and the instantaneous forward rate are
These encode different summaries: the yield averages the forward rate over the remaining lifetime. Bond prices must satisfy and be positive; they need not be below one in models permitting negative rates.
The Vasicek model has constant pricing dynamics
Solving the linear equation gives . Consequently, with and ,
This conditional normal random variable has variance . Its normal exponential moment yields
Evaluating the elementary integral gives
This explicit form makes estimation and valuation convenient. The rate is Gaussian, its conditional mean reverts to , and its long-run variance is . Its disadvantage, when nonnegative rates are desired, is a positive probability of negative rates.
The CIR model replaces constant volatility by square-root volatility:
The standard solution stays nonnegative. The Feller positivity condition for the CIR model is in this parameterization; with a positive initial rate it makes zero inaccessible. Below this threshold zero can be reached, although the process does not cross into negative rates. For an affine diffusion bond pricing ansatz , substitution into the bond equation and matching its constant and rate coefficients gives
Writing , factor the quadratic in the first equation and integrate from ; integrating the second equation then gives the CIR bond pricing formulas
The square-root form produces an affine term structure while respecting nonnegative rates. These parameters are pricing-measure parameters; historical mean-reversion estimates alone do not determine them without a risk-premium specification.
Both preceding constant-parameter models constrain the family of initial curves. The Hull-White model allows a deterministic time-dependent drift:
For a smooth desired initial forward curve , its exact forward-curve fit in the Hull-White model is obtained by taking
To derive this rather than merely assert calibration, write , where , . The conditional Gaussian-integral calculation at time zero gives
so its forward curve is . Choose . Differentiating this shift and adding gives exactly the displayed . Thus for every maturity, while and govern the stochastic fluctuations. This Gaussian model still allows negative rates.
Finally, one-factor models are economical and often give explicit bond prices, but their single Brownian driver is restrictive. Bond diffusion exposures give the instantaneous covariance matrix , of rank at most one. Nondegenerate maturity changes are instantaneously perfectly correlated, with correlation or , though their finite-horizon correlations need not equal one. A single factor therefore cannot independently describe level, slope and curvature shocks to the whole yield curve. Multiple factors or a full forward-rate model offer greater flexibility. A valid one-factor model must specify the pricing drift, fit the initial curve to the required accuracy, and handle boundary and martingale conditions; naming a rate diffusion alone is not a complete pricing model.
For the integrable terminal bracket criterion, assume , or more generally . This initial-value assumption is necessary if it is not already part of the notation: an integrable but non-square-integrable random constant process has zero quadratic variation and still fails square-integrability.
For the zero-starting case, choose a localizing sequence bounding both and its quadratic variation. The stopped processes are true square-integrable martingales, and the Itô isometry gives
For each fixed time these variables are uniformly integrable by their bounded second moments. Almost sure convergence as is therefore convergence in . Passing to the limit in the stopped conditional-expectation identity gives : the local martingale is a true martingale. The Fatou lemma also gives
so belongs to the global space. For general square-integrable , apply this argument to and use .
Put . Its continuous, strictly increasing paths start at zero and tend to infinity. Thus the inverse is finite and continuous, and
so each is a stopping time. Set and . This is the inverse-clock construction in the Dambis-Dubins-Schwarz theorem.
To verify its martingale property, stop at times bounding its path, its bracket and time itself. The stopped and are bounded martingales. Optional sampling at and shows that the time-changed process, stopped at , is a martingale and that its square minus the stopped clock is a martingale. These clock stopping times tend to infinity because . Therefore is a continuous local martingale with and quadratic variation . The Lévy characterization of Brownian motion identifies it as a -Brownian motion.
Strict monotonicity and continuity give and , so
The inverse-clock argument proves the asserted representation; the random clock need not be independent of the Brownian motion it produces.
For , is not measurable with respect to the original Brownian filtration : its conditional variance is . Thus it is not even adapted on the full half-line. It also fails the martingale condition before time one. With , ,
The appropriate filtration is
Brownian independent increments make a continuous -martingale, with quadratic variation . Define the stochastic integral
The value of the integrand at zero is immaterial; it is square-integrable against the bracket because . Consequently , and the Lévy characterization of Brownian motion makes a -Brownian motion. Associativity of stochastic integrals gives the Brownian motion under a quadratic time change representation
The function is continuous at zero. One can first verify the inverse-integrand identity on and then let using the Itô isometry, since .
Let be the total variation of on , and set . Adaptation and continuity of make these stopping times; finite variation on every compact interval gives . The stopped process satisfies and has total variation at most . It is a martingale by the bounded local martingale criterion, and is square-integrable.
Fix and take deterministic partitions with mesh tending to zero. The martingale-difference orthogonality of the increments gives
Pathwise, however,
by uniform continuity on . These sums are bounded by , so the dominated convergence theorem gives . Hence almost surely. Take all rational on a common probability-one event and use continuity to obtain . Then let . This proves the continuous finite-variation local martingale is constant result in its zero-starting form:
The proof does not assume the uniqueness of quadratic variation that is to be established next.
For two candidates , their difference is a continuous adapted finite-variation process. It is also a local martingale, since
Apply part (b) after subtracting its initial value. Consequently
This proves the uniqueness of an increasing square compensator when the initial value is prescribed, in particular under the standard quadratic variation normalization .
The printed assertion omits that normalization and is literally false. For standard Brownian motion , both and are continuous adapted increasing processes; both and are martingales. Thus uniqueness holds after fixing the initial value; otherwise it holds only up to an initial constant.
For a simple predictable process, define its stochastic integral by
It is constant after , so the symbol means its value there. Put . If , then is -measurable, and the conditional expectation of given that sigma-algebra is zero. Boundedness of the coefficients and square-integrability of justify the expectations, so all cross terms vanish:
For each diagonal term, the martingale increment identity also gives
Indeed, the omitted term has expectation zero. Apply the assumed martingale property of to replace this difference of squares by the corresponding quadratic variation increment. Thus
The intervals in the Lebesgue–Stieltjes integral exactly match these increments, including possible jumps of .
Assume, as in the Bayesian model, that the unknown drift is independent of the driving Brownian motion, with known positive prior precision . Recover the observed signal from the positive stock price:
For a fixed time , the centered observed path is a Brownian bridge independent of : it is independent of the prior and has zero covariance with in their joint Gaussian law. Thus the whole observed history has the same posterior information about as its endpoint. This proves Brownian endpoint sufficiency for a constant drift rather than assuming it.
The likelihood of that endpoint, as a function of , is proportional to . Multiplying by the normal distribution prior and completing the square gives the Gaussian Brownian drift filter
Define the observed innovation process . It is a continuous observed-filtration martingale: for , independence of future noise and the tower property of conditional expectation give , so the conditional mean of its increment vanishes. Its quadratic variation is , since subtracting the finite-variation drift from does not change quadratic variation. The Lévy characterization of Brownian motion makes an observed-filtration Brownian motion. Differentiating the posterior mean gives
Conversely, the last equation determines from with deterministic coefficients and known initial value, and . Thus the observed and innovation filtrations coincide, supplying the natural Brownian information needed for replication. Consequently the observed stock dynamics are . Its observed market price of risk is , and its normalized state-price density solves
The posterior mean is unbounded, so bounded-coefficient Novikov condition reasoning from Question 2 is not available automatically. A direct finite-horizon argument supplies true pricing. Relative to driftless Wiener measure for , the Bayesian mixture has observation density
A law with observation drift instead has density . Therefore
This is the finite-horizon pricing density for Gaussian drift learning. The ratio changes the physical observed law into a genuine probability law, hence has mean one. Indeed, differentiation of the explicit likelihood, using , gives
The Itô formula therefore gives , agreeing with the stochastic exponential above. Under this pricing law the stock drift is .
For logarithmic utility, terminal marginal utility is . The state-price budget constraint and the marginal condition imply and . Since is constant, its conditional-expectation pricing process is constant as well. Thus the entire optimal wealth process is
Indeed, for any other nonnegative admissible terminal wealth , the elementary inequality gives
This directly verifies optimality. Expected candidate log wealth is finite because and its time integral is finite on every fixed horizon. Applying the Itô formula to gives
The observed self-financing portfolio with risky dollar fraction has diffusion coefficient . Matching the coefficients proves the log-optimal investment with Gaussian drift learning rule
The remaining dollars are held in the bank account; the fraction may be negative or exceed one because the question imposes neither short-sale nor borrowing restrictions.
First justify that the logarithm is defined at all times from one onward. For planar Brownian motion started at , stop on exiting the annulus , where . This exit time is finite almost surely: the stopped identity gives . The function is harmonic on the annulus, so its stopped process is a bounded martingale. Optional stopping gives
Hitting zero before the outer circle would require hitting every inner circle first. It therefore has probability zero. Taking a countable sequence of outer radii tending to infinity proves that planar Brownian motion avoids a fixed point. Since has a density and is nonzero almost surely, condition on to apply this result to the future path.
For , and in two dimensions. The Itô formula on annuli therefore gives
To localize explicitly, let . These stopping times increase to infinity almost surely: on each compact time interval the continuous path has a finite maximum and, by point avoidance, a positive minimum radius. Up to , the stochastic integrand has norm at most . Its stopped integral is square-integrable on every finite horizon. The initial value is integrable, as follows from the Rayleigh-density calculation in part d. Hence is a true martingale from time one and is a local martingale. This also gives its quadratic variation from time one as .
For every zero-starting continuous local martingale , there is a unique, up to indistinguishability, continuous adapted increasing process , with , such that
This is its quadratic variation. It also satisfies, for deterministic partitions whose mesh tends to zero,
with convergence uniformly on compact time intervals in probability. The theorem includes existence and finiteness on each compact interval; monotonicity is understood pathwise outside one null set.
Uniqueness follows because the difference of two candidate increasing continuous processes is both a finite-variation process and a continuous local martingale, hence is identically zero from its zero initial value. For a continuous semimartingale , its quadratic variation is , since continuous finite-variation terms have zero quadratic variation. Polarization defines the quadratic covariation by .
The correct quadratic variation of a stochastic integral identity is
The brackets around the final integrator are missing in the PDF. Without them the assertion is false: for and Brownian motion, the left side is while the printed right side is .
For elementary predictable , the integral is obtained by scaling each martingale increment by its known coefficient. Quadratic variation on each interval is therefore scaled by the square of that coefficient, giving the displayed formula. To pass to a general integrand on , take elementary in the integrand norm and put , . The Itô isometry gives , hence . The bracket Cauchy-Schwarz bound
and polarization show that uniformly in probability. On the other side, Cauchy-Schwarz for the quadratic-variation measure gives
Taking limits proves the formula in the square-integrable case. Stopping and pasting as in part b proves it for locally bounded predictable integrands and continuous local martingales.
Since , invert the image clock before exit and put . Its quadratic variation is and its initial value is zero, because . By the Lévy characterization of Brownian motion, or the localized Dambis-Dubins-Schwarz theorem,
for a standard Brownian motion up to the image exit time. If that lifetime is finite, the stopped Brownian motion can be extended beyond it; only the stopped law is used here.
In this clock the image mapping-out functions obey the ordinary Chordal Loewner equation with driver . Their generated trace therefore has the law of SLE with parameter six, stopped when it leaves . Meanwhile the original image segment is exactly up to exit from . The clock change is increasing, so it disappears after passing to . This proves the local stopped-curve equality required in part (a).
For completeness, the original law is scale invariant: the maps have driver , whose law is again by Brownian scaling. Hence has the original trace law. Together with the stopped conformal-change argument, this establishes
The conclusion concerns local unparameterized segments up to exit; the capacity parameter itself changes according to .
As with quadratic variation, the increasing process must be normalized by . Suppose have this initial value and both and are continuous local martingales. Since and these differences are continuous, both and are continuous. Their difference is a finite-variation process, and
is a continuous local martingale. The result proved in part (a) makes this difference constant. Its initial value is zero, so and are indistinguishable. This is the uniqueness of an increasing square compensator; it uses no existence argument.
If no initial-value normalization is imposed, the literal uniqueness assertion is false: whenever works, works for every deterministic constant , since subtracting a constant preserves the local martingale property. The exact unnormalized conclusion is for all , up to indistinguishability of stochastic processes.