Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2016 iii Paper 209 1 b Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-06
Use the same as in part (a). The error of the weighted realized variance splits into its centered fluctuation and its deterministic quadrature error:The Hölder continuity of controls this bias:Since , the bias-variance decomposition of mean squared error has no cross term. Part (a) therefore givesHence is a universal choice. This argument separately controls the statistical fluctuation and the Riemann sum approximation.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2016 iii Paper 209 1 c Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-06
Write and , restricting to meshes small enough that . This discontinuous indicator function does not satisfy the hypothesis of part (b). Instead apply part (a) with and handle its two boundary cells directly.
Let on each observation cell . Away from cells containing the two ends of , almost everywhere. Even if an endpoint is itself an observation time, at most two cells contribute, and their total length is at most . Thus the quadrature error obeysThe fluctuation has variance at most . Its zero expected value givesusing .
The remaining bias is the difference between an interval average and the spot variance. By the Hölder continuity of ,Retaining the centered fluctuation and bounding yieldsFor , both and equal . Therefore and satisfy both requested bounds:The constants are independent of the observation partition, , and . The exponent follows from a bias-variance tradeoff for a shrinking window.
