At-risk process 2026-09-24
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2024 iii Paper 207 4 a ii Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-09-25
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2024 iii Paper 207 4 a i Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-09-25
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2024 iii Paper 207 4 c iv Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-09-25
The variance of an estimated hazard increment is large when its group has few individuals in the risk set. The log-rank weights are near zero when either or is small and are largest when both groups retain substantial information. They therefore suppress noisy late-event comparisons and weight each observed-minus-expected event by its available information. Unit weights would instead give equal influence to unstable increments from depleted risk sets.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2024 iii Paper 207 5 c ii Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-09-25
Letand let be the common partial likelihood contribution from the first observations. Since , the three possible complete-data tail orderings and their partial likelihoods areTheir sum isWhen individual is right-censored at , that individual leaves the risk set before the event at , so the directly calculated Cox partial likelihood is also . Summing over the unobserved compatible event orderings therefore reproduces the censored-data partial likelihood.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2024 iii Paper 207 5 c i Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-09-25
For each observed event with , let be its risk set. The Cox partial likelihood isMaximize it to obtain , estimate its variance from the observed partial information, and test using a partial likelihood-ratio test, Wald test, or score test. A positive fitted coefficient means the group with has the larger hazard.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2024 iii Paper 207 5 c Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-09-25
A semiparametric proportional hazards model specifieswith finite-dimensional parameter but an unspecified baseline hazard . A partial likelihood uses a component of the data likelihood that depends on while eliminating the nuisance function. In the Cox proportional-hazards model, conditioning on which member of each risk set experiences the event produces the Cox partial likelihood.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2024 iii Paper 207 6 b i Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-09-25
Construct the two countries' period-specific risk sets with the same left truncation and right censoring rules, then compare their event counts by a Log-rank test. This is a nonparametric comparison because it does not specify the shape of either country's hazard function.