A thermal fluctuation is the randomness of an observable in an equilibrium Boltzmann distribution. If the energy contains , differentiation of its partition function gives . Thus the fluctuation variance is related to the response to a conjugate source. In a field theory, the two-point version is the connected correlation function.
For fixed particle number and temperature, a bubble with surface tension and area has effective availability . Its stationary condition is . Its curvature is . Positive curvature is required for stable Gaussian fluctuation approximation. The variance follows from availability curvature and equilibrium fluctuations. For an ideal gas, the restoring denominator becomes for positive . Treating the internal pressure as externally fixed instead of fixing the gas particle number changes the stability problem.

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