Given , the score has a binomial distribution with success probability . Its conditional expected value and variance are and . Thus
This is binomial thinning of the first-round count; the second formula uses the identity .
For , the expected value is the convergent improper integral
For completeness, when the same positive integral diverges and the expected value is infinite.
Since , the function is strictly increasing on its support. For ,
and for . Differentiating the cumulative distribution function gives
The density value at the single point is immaterial. Hence has an exponential distribution with rate . Direct integration by parts, or its standard expected value, yields
By the density formula for expected value,
For the standard normal distribution, the integrand in the second moment is even, so
Comparing these two integrals gives
The law of the unconscious statistician gives the improper integral
In particular and , so
For , ; for , the power integral also tends to . Thus for , so there is no finite expected value. Negative powers need only be defined almost surely on ; the null event has no effect on this conclusion.
First . If a nonnegative random variable had zero expected value, it would equal zero almost surely, which is impossible for a distribution having a probability density function on : a singleton has probability zero. Thus the given division by is legitimate.
Because and , . Moreover
Extend by zero for negative . It is a probability density function, defining the size-biased distribution of : larger observations receive weight proportional to their value.
Since , its finite expected value satisfies . Every is nonnegative and
Thus these values are a probability mass function. They define the size-biased distribution of : larger values receive proportionally more weight.
Normalization gives . Integrating the probability density from one to two gives
The expected value exists, since the first-moment integrals converge, and equals
For , decreasing the second parameter by one gives another valid beta distribution density and
Normalization therefore gives
The restriction is essential for this finite expected value; when , the singularity near instead makes the expectation infinite.
Differentiate the probability generating function equation:
At , , giving
The derivative is finite because and the explicit square root has no singularity at . Alternatively, the expected population in generation is , so the expected number of splits in that generation is . Summing this nonnegative geometric series gives the same answer without initially assuming a finite expected value.
Markov's inequality: if and , then . Pointwise,
Taking expected values, using their monotonicity and the identity , gives . Division by the positive threshold proves the inequality. If the expectation is infinite, the extended-valued bound remains true but uninformative.
A general-purpose high-dimensional choice is Monte Carlo integration. Draw independent vectors uniformly from the unit cube and evaluate . The cube has volume , so its integral is the expected value of . The iterative estimator is
The integrand is continuous on a compact set, hence bounded with finite variance. The strong law of large numbers gives almost sure convergence, and the square root of the mean squared error is exactly , where . Thus the standard stochastic accuracy rate is ; the dimension affects the variance and evaluation cost, not this exponent.
There is also an important structure-specific improvement here: is a separable integrand. The Fubini theorem reduces the requested value exactly to
One can therefore replace high-dimensional sampling by one-dimensional composite Simpson's rule calculations. For each factor use even , , and
then iterate and form the sum of the products. These smooth factors give deterministic discretization error for fixed centres. Thus Monte Carlo integration is a valid generic answer, while exploiting separability is the more efficient specialized alternative; a large dimension alone does not force a tensor-product grid.
Let be the event that candidate succeeds. The countable additivity axiom adds probabilities only for mutually disjoint events. Successes of different candidates are not mutually exclusive, so replacing the probability of their union by misuses that axiom. Without disjointness one obtains only the union bound, not certainty. The same sum is the expected value of the number of successes, which also need not imply at least one.
If the ten outcomes are mutually independent events, with each success probability , all fail with probability . Hence
The independence assumption is essential. The marginal probabilities alone allow any union probability from up to ; perfectly overlapping success events give the lower endpoint and disjoint successes give the upper endpoint.
Because , the function is increasing and nonnegative. Thus . Applying Markov's inequality to the nonnegative random variable , whose expected value is finite by assumption, yields
Under the usual probability generating function convention takes nonnegative integer values. The argument itself works for any real random variable if is understood as the finite expected value .
Choose . If has an exponential distribution with rate , then for ,
while the integral diverges to when . Since has rate ,
For the other two rates, , whereas . These computations establish exactly the required finite variance, finite expected value, and infinite expected value.
Write and . Since , the latter expected value is finite. Conditional on the first move to or , total time is one plus the remaining time, while the terminal success indicator random variable is unchanged. The Markov property and linearity of expectation give
At either absorbing boundary the remaining time is zero, so .
Let . The linear term has zero second difference and has second difference . Consequently
which is exactly the required recurrence, and . Uniqueness follows as before: the difference of two solutions has zero second difference and zero endpoint values. Hence
This is the success-weighted duration underlying the duration of gambler's ruin conditioned on a chosen boundary.
Let . Time is accumulated in each transient chamber before the next move; arrival at either terminal state ends the trial immediately. Thus . A block of identical rightward choices forces absorption, so the geometric tail bound from a uniform escape probability gives finite expected value of .
First-step analysis now gives
The quadratic has the correct boundary values and second difference , so it solves this system. The difference of two solutions would be linear in with zero values at both endpoints, hence zero. Therefore
This is the expected duration of symmetric gambler's ruin. It includes the first minute in the starting transient chamber and does not add a minute after absorption.