Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2025 iii Paper 219 4 a Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-09-25
One simple algorithm is importance sampling from the prior. Draw independently from and assign weight . Thenestimates the Bayesian model evidence, and the normalized weights represent the posterior. A weighted histogram or kernel density estimation of the estimates the marginal ; discarding performs the marginalization.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2025 iii Paper 219 4 d Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-09-25
Estimate each one-dimensional marginal posterior from its individual experiment's weighted samples, for example by weighted kernel density estimation. Combining that density estimate with the individual evidence estimate givesTheir product with can be normalized on the one-dimensional space, avoiding all joint nuisance-parameter sampling.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2026 iii Paper 219 3 d Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-09-25
Discard burn-in from the MCMC output and retain the sampled coordinate. A normalized histogram or kernel density estimation of these draws approximates . Autocorrelation changes the Monte Carlo uncertainty, so uncertainty bands should use the chain's effective sample size rather than its raw length.