Let independent increments equal or with probabilities each, and zero otherwise. Every partial sum is integrable and is a martingale. The Borel-Cantelli lemma makes only finitely many increments nonzero almost surely, so has a finite almost-sure limit . Yet : the disjoint events that only the th increment is nonzero have probabilities at least for , and contribute at least each. This does not contradict the martingale convergence theorem, whose integrability conclusion requires a uniform first-moment bound.
// Target: markov-process.bigb
Bounded-increment martingale convergence-or-oscillation dichotomy Created 2026-10-06 Updated 2026-10-14
A discrete-time martingale with a common deterministic bound on all increments either converges finitely or has and , almost surely. Stopping on first crossing below gives a lower bound on the overshoot. Adding produces a nonnegative martingale, so the martingale convergence theorem forces finite convergence on the event of never crossing. Apply the same argument to .
Coin-doubling martingale Created 2026-10-07 Updated 2026-10-14
For independent fair Bernoulli variables, this nonnegative martingale starts at one, doubles on every success, and becomes zero permanently on the first failure. Its expectation is always one, but it tends to zero almost surely because the probability of success forever is zero. Thus it satisfies the martingale convergence theorem while failing convergence in L1. This illustrates how rare large values obstruct uniform integrability.
Conditional Borel-Cantelli lemma Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-10-14
For events , put . Then almost surely on , while almost surely on . The proof applies the martingale convergence theorem to compensated sums and uses Kronecker lemma in the divergent case.
Doob's martingale convergence theorems 2026-10-14
These are convergence results for martingales and submartingales under appropriate one-sided or absolute-integrability bounds. They distinguish almost-sure convergence from convergence in mean: uniform integrability gives the latter. The martingale convergence theorem stated for an L1-bounded martingale is one standard member of the family.
Infinite-future formula for partition entropy rate Created 2026-10-05 Updated 2026-10-14
For a finite measurable partition , put . Then . The backward entropy chain rule writes as the sum of the first decreasing finite-future conditional entropies. Their averages have the same limit. Increasing conditioning fields converge by the martingale convergence theorem.
Lp martingale convergence theorem Created 2026-10-05 Updated 2026-10-14
A martingale satisfying , for , has almost sure convergence and convergence in Lp to a limit . Also . The Doob Lp maximal inequality makes integrable to the power ; the martingale convergence theorem gives the almost-sure limit, and the dominated convergence theorem gives convergence in the Lp norm. Boundedness in alone does not imply convergence in L1.
Nonnegative martingale Created 2026-10-07 Updated 2026-10-14
A nonnegative martingale takes nonnegative values almost surely at each time. In discrete time its expectations are constant, so it is bounded in and the martingale convergence theorem gives a finite integrable almost sure limit. Its expectations need not converge to the expectation of that limit; uniform integrability is needed for convergence in L1.
Let , where the increments are nonconstant independent and identically distributed random variables with zero expected value and . Then the random walk oscillates between arbitrarily large positive and negative levels almost surely. For , the stopped martingale is nonnegative. The martingale convergence theorem implies that converges finitely on . However, some has , and the Borel-Cantelli lemmas imply infinitely often. Hence finite convergence is impossible. Apply this to every positive integer and to .
The bounded increments also imply infinitely many visits to : a path cannot cross from above to below without entering this interval. Identical distribution cannot simply be dropped. For independent symmetric signs , the increments satisfy for every , even though they are nonzero, independent, symmetric and uniformly bounded.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2001 iii Paper 21 1 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
For a submartingale and , let count the completed upcrossings of by time . The Doob upcrossing inequality givesFor a martingale , a useful sharper form isHere and . To see the martingale form, use a bounded predictable process that holds one unit after an observation at or below and releases it on the next observation at or above . Its gain is at least : completed trades earn at least , and any unfinished trade loses at most . Since , the bound follows. For the submartingale version, apply the same strategy to , itself a submartingale. Each purchase occurs at value zero, so its gain is at least . The complementary predictable strategy has nonnegative expected gain, bounding this strategy's expected gain by , and in particular by the stated right side.
The almost-sure martingale convergence theorem says that if , then converges almost surely to a finite, integrable random variable , with . Indeed, the Doob upcrossing inequality bounds the expected total number of upcrossings of every rational interval by . By monotone convergence, each such total count is finite almost surely; intersect these probability-one events over all rational . If the lower and upper limits of a sample path differed, some rational interval strictly between them would be crossed infinitely often. Thus each remaining path has a limit in the extended real line. The Fatou lemma givesso the limit is finite almost surely and integrable. Almost-sure convergence by itself neither preserves expectations nor supplies this uniform first-moment bound.
For the loss of expectation, let be independent variables with the fair Bernoulli distribution and setConditional on the past, survival doubles the value with probability and otherwise sets it to zero, so this is a nonnegative martingale. An infinite string of successes has probability zero. The process therefore eventually vanishes almost surely, giving yes: and almost surely are possible. Its expectations remain one at every finite time; the process is not uniformly integrable.
A nonintegrable limit is also possible for a signed martingale. Take independent withand let , . Every increment has mean zero and a finite absolute expectation, so each is integrable and is a martingale. Since , the Borel-Cantelli lemma makes only finitely many increments nonzero almost surely; hence the finite limit exists almost surely. To compute its absolute expectation, let be the event that only the th increment is nonzero. Independence givesThe infinite product is positive because its tail logarithms are bounded in absolute value by a constant times the summable series . The events are disjoint, and on , . ThereforeThus yes: a finite almost-sure martingale limit can have infinite absolute expectation, even with deterministic . This is almost-sure martingale convergence to a nonintegrable limit; the missing hypothesis is the uniform first-moment bound. For a nonnegative martingale, in contrast, the Fatou lemma would force the limit to be integrable.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2002 iii Paper 27 6 a Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
Write , where the angle brackets average only over walk paths, and use only for the environment. Every nearest-neighbor path of length has probability , so the finite path sum is exactly the walk expectation. It depends only on environment layers through time , and hence is -measurable. Its factors lie in , so is positive and integrable at each fixed time.
For any fixed path through time , the environment variable is independent of and has mean zero. Conditional expectation therefore removes its last factor. Summing over the possible last steps of each length- path cancels the extra factor in the path probability. ThusThis is the positive random-environment path-weight martingale. It is nonnegative and bounded in , so the martingale convergence theorem gives a finite limit almost surely. At this stage one can conclude by Fatou's lemma, but not yet equality; the second-moment bound in part (b) will prevent loss of mean.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2003 iii Paper 29 2 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
A convenient precise version is the almost sure submartingale convergence theorem: if is a real submartingale and , then converges almost surely to a finite integrable random variable. In particular the martingale convergence theorem applies to any martingale with . It asserts neither convergence in L1 nor preservation of the initial expected value without additional uniform integrability.
Here is a proof including the crossing estimate. Fix real , and let count completed upcrossings by time . Use a predictable indicator which holds one unit during each crossing attempt: enter when , exit when . Witheach completed trade gains at least , while the possible unfinished trade loses no more than . Hence . The submartingale property and give : the complementary predictable gains have nonnegative expected value. ThereforeThe right side is uniformly bounded, since . By the monotone convergence theorem, every rational interval has finitely many upcrossings almost surely. A real sequence whose lower and upper limits differ crosses some rational interval infinitely often, so the countable intersection of these events gives an extended-real limit. Furthermoreso . The Fatou lemma makes the limit finite and integrable, completing the proof. Applying this theorem to gives the almost sure supermartingale convergence theorem for nonnegative supermartingales.
For the given adapted multiplicative drift, putThe next denominator is -measurable, and makes integrable. ThusThe nonnegative supermartingale has a finite almost sure convergence limit . On the probability-one event where the specified series is finite,Consequently and the multiplicative correction for summable adapted drift givesThe argument does not require a finite expected value for the infinite product or for the total drift.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2004 iii Paper 7 3 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
We first construct a terminal integrable function without using the martingale convergence theorem. Put and on . This is a finite positive measure. If almost everywhere the conclusion is immediate. Otherwise, for a bounded dyadic step function measurable with respect to in the dyadic filtration, defineThe martingale property makes the definition independent of the choice of a sufficiently large . Moreover . Dyadic step functions are dense in : continuous functions on the closed unit cube are dense for this finite Borel measure (extend the measure by zero onto the omitted faces), and uniform continuity approximates each continuous function by step functions on fine dyadic partitions. Thus extends to a bounded linear functional on of norm at most one. The duality of Lp spaces representation of this functional gives with and . Set , taking where . Then and testing indicators of all dyadic atoms provesThis argument also works for complex-valued martingales, with a complex linear functional.
To prove convergence, choose a dyadic step function with arbitrarily small. For all beyond its dyadic level, . The L1 contraction of conditional expectation yieldsThis proves convergence in . For convergence almost everywhere, Doob maximal inequality applied to the conditional expectations of givesLet the approximation error tend to zero, and then take positive rational . Hence both in and almost everywhere.
For the second assertion, write and take the given first-exit stopping time . Each is integrable, being a finite sum of restrictions of integrable variables. Its increments satisfyThe indicator is -measurable, so taking its conditional expectation proves that is a martingale.
The overshoot at need not be bounded by . Instead, for a fixed , on with we have . Integrating over this -measurable event, summing the disjoint events, and including givesThe variables increase to , and . The monotone convergence theorem gives . Before stopping, the process has magnitude less than ; after stopping it remains at . ConsequentlyThis is the integrable overshoot of a stopped L1-bounded martingale. The first part now proves that every such stopped process converges almost everywhere.
Finally, Doob maximal inequality gives , by applying the finite-horizon estimate and then increasing the horizon. Thus is finite almost everywhere. Outside the union of the null sets for all positive integer stopping thresholds, choose an integer larger than this supremum. No stopping occurs at that point, so for all , and converges to a finite limit almost everywhere. We have not assumed, or concluded, convergence for this general -bounded martingale.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2004 iii Paper 7 4 iii Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
We derive the required Calderón–Zygmund decomposition and apply the preceding two parts. Use the Fourier transform convention , and put . The Plancherel theorem givesFor completeness this starts with smooth rapidly decreasing inputs, where , and extends by density. It agrees with the pointwise convolution in the question: if in , then . Thus there is no need to assume that itself is integrable.
Fix , let , and choose . Select the maximal dyadic cubes for which . They exist above every qualifying cube because averages over increasingly large ancestors tend to zero. They are disjoint, their total volume is at most , and maximality givesOutside their union, dyadic differentiation gives almost everywhere. One can obtain this differentiation fact from the allowed martingale convergence theorem: on each fixed dyadic cube the averages are conditional expectations of the integrable restriction, their almost-everywhere limit exists, and approximation by dyadic step functions shows in that this limit is .
Let , define outside the selected cubes and on , and set . This constructswith the estimatesThese follow by integrating separately on each selected cube; gives both the good-part norm bound and the last cancellation-error bound.
Let , with the dilation from part (ii). Then . On its complement, part (i), followed by part (ii), givesFinally, implies or . The first alternative is controlled by the operator bound, and the second by the last integral outside . HenceThus has weak type , with a constant depending only on the dimension, the bounded Fourier transform, and the Hörmander integral kernel condition.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2005 iii Paper 34 2 a Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
The almost sure submartingale convergence theorem states that a discrete-time submartingale satisfying converges almost surely to a finite integrable limit. In particular, a martingale with converges almost surely to an integrable , and by Fatou's lemma. This is the martingale convergence theorem. Uniform integrability gives the stronger conclusion of L1 convergence; it is not implied by bounded first moments alone.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2005 iii Paper 34 2 c Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
The dyadic slope martingale is uniformly bounded by . The martingale convergence theorem gives an almost-sure limit , and dominated convergence gives L1 convergence. Define on the null exceptional set and at the endpoint. This gives a measurable representative with everywhere.
If are dyadic rationals, then for every sufficiently fine grid the integral telescopes:Pass to the limit by L1 convergence. For arbitrary endpoints choose dyadic , with . The error in the integrals is at most , and Lipschitz continuity controls the error in the endpoint values by the same expression. ThereforeThis constructs the bounded integral density directly, without assuming in advance that a Lipschitz function has an almost everywhere derivative.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2006 iii Paper 31 3 ii Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
Put . These sigma-fields increase, and their union generates the continuous Brownian path. Let be the polygonal enhancement. Its coordinates are determined by its displacement and antisymmetric area ; the symmetric second level is .
The given conditional-expectation identities implyFor the second assertion it is important to use area coordinates rather than asserting that the whole tensor signature is a conditional expectation. Write . The local off-diagonal second integral isConditional on their separate dyadic values, the two independent Brownian components remain independent. Thus the conditional expectation of the product in the last term is . The assumed identity for gives the polygonal entry. The reverse entry follows by integration by parts, since the product of the two component increments also has the product of their conditional means. Taking the antisymmetric part proves the area identity. Diagonal second levels are recovered from the geometric identity, rather than from a conditional-expectation claim about squares.
For each fixed dyadic time , the first-level and area conditional expectations are uniformly integrable martingales in . Their targets are measurable with respect to : Brownian area is a limit of stochastic integral sums determined by the path. The martingale convergence theorem gives convergence to and , respectively. The continuous group coordinate formulas then giveat all dyadic times on a common event of probability one.
For the uniform Hölder estimate, fix and put . The given all-order integrability and the group norm comparison implyUse the conditional-expectation formulas, the conditional Jensen inequality, and . The group norm comparison yieldsFirst take all dyadic pairs, a countable collection, and then extend the inequality to all by continuity. Hence the Brownian rough path martingale Hölder bound isFor any , the Doob Lp maximal inequality givesTherefore
To upgrade convergence from dyadic times to every time simultaneously, apply this bound at one positive exponent . The polygonal enhancements are then equicontinuous in the group metric, with a common finite random constant. For a finite dyadic time net, convergence holds at every net point. The triangle inequality bounds the errors at the remaining times by the two Hölder errors to the nearest net point and the error at that point. First let , and then let the net mesh tend to zero. This proves uniform convergence, and in particular convergence for every on one event of probability one.
There is also convergence in each weaker Hölder rough path metric. Uniform convergence of the group coordinates gives uniform convergence of their levelwise increments through the Chen formulas. If , the uniform bounds bound the level- increment differences by a random constant times , while their unweighted suprema tend to zero. Interpolating these two bounds proves convergence with denominators , for . This establishes the nested polygonal approximation of Brownian rough paths in the topology needed for the support argument.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2006 ii Paper 4 28I Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-10-14
A martingale is an adapted Lebesgue integrable process with . A stopping time has for every . A precise bounded-time optional sampling theorem says: if are stopping times, then . To prove it, writeFor , the event lies in . Every summand multiplied by its indicator therefore has expectation zero. Summing proves the conditional expectation identity. All terms are Lebesgue integrable since there are finitely many. Unbounded stopping requires an additional hypothesis such as uniform integrability of the stopped martingale; it is not justified solely by almost-sure finiteness.
The martingale convergence theorem ensures a finite almost-sure limit if . Uniform integrability also gives convergence in . In particular bounded or nonnegative martingales satisfy the almost-sure convergence criterion. A symmetric random walk is a martingale but cannot have a finite limit, since each increment is and does not tend to zero. Some hypothesis is therefore necessary.
If there are pessimists, the count increases with probability and decreases with the identical probability. The remaining outcomes leave it unchanged, so is a bounded martingale. It converges almost surely. From any nonunanimous state, there is a fixed positive probability, bounded uniformly over the finitely many states, of reaching unanimity within steps by letting each other individual copy a chosen seed. Repeating blocks shows eventual absorption has probability one. Thus the finite voter-model consensus probability isThe last equality follows from bounded convergence and the constant martingale expectation. The population eventually becomes wholly pessimistic or wholly optimistic, with probabilities equal to their respective initial proportions.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2007 iii Paper 32 3 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
Fix and a standard -dimensional Brownian motion starting at zero. Let be deterministic nested finite partitions of with mesh tending to zero; dyadic partitions are the basic example. Let be the polygonal interpolation through the partition values and put . The limit is enhanced Brownian motion, with incrementsHere the integral is a Stratonovich integral. In terms of Itô integrals,Its symmetric part is , while its antisymmetric part is Lévy area,These identities and splitting the integral at an intermediate time give the Chen identity, so has values in .
A precise nested polygonal approximation of Brownian rough paths statement is: for every ,where the rough path metric used here isIn particular, for each , choosing gives convergence in the inhomogeneous -variation rough path metric. The limiting signed area is the Lévy area, and the limiting full second level is Stratonovich, not Itô. This distinction is necessary: a polygonal lift has the prescribed symmetric second level, whereas an Itô lift would lack half the quadratic-variation correction.
Here is a proof sketch emphasizing the nested martingale structure. SetA Brownian bridge between two prescribed endpoints has the affine interpolation as conditional mean. ConsequentlyFor the coordinate processes remain independent when their respective partition values are conditioned on. Approximating the Itô integral by its left sums, conditioning each product, and then taking its limit givesIndeed each conditioned factor is its polygonal interpolation, and their sums converge to the ordinary integral of those piecewise linear functions. For a fixed pair , the right side is therefore a martingale in the refinement index . It is not being asserted to be a martingale in physical time; polygonal interpolation uses the right endpoint of its current cell.
The union of the partitions is dense. Continuity of implies that contains the full Brownian path and its stochastic integrals, up to completion. The martingale convergence theorem for conditional expectations therefore yields convergence of and all off-diagonal at every fixed pair, almost surely and in for finite . Simultaneously it holds for a countable dense collection of pairs. The diagonal terms must be handled separately:They are not conditional expectations of the diagonal Brownian second level: the latter would also contain a conditional variance.
Pointwise convergence alone is insufficient for the rough path metric. The Burkholder-Davis-Gundy inequalities, Brownian scaling and Gaussian increment moments give, for arbitrarily large ,Equivalently, using the homogeneous norm on , the -th moment of the Carnot-Carathéodory distance of an increment is bounded by . The metric form of the Kolmogorov continuity theorem, with chosen large, gives for every a random having all finite moments such thatConditioning these bounds givesThe diagonal bounds follow by squaring the first bound. The two conditional-expectation processes are nonnegative martingales; the Doob Lp maximal inequality makes their suprema over finite almost surely, with all needed moments. Thus all the polygonal lifts have a common random bound at exponent .
These bounds and the Chen identity give joint equicontinuity of the increments as functions of . Convergence on the dense collection of pairs consequently gives uniform convergence of both levels on the time triangle. Take . For either level , with a common bound and its uniform difference, interpolation givesThis proves the stated Hölder rough path metric convergence. Finally, for a partition , the -th level difference satisfiesbecause . Taking the appropriate powers and suprema proves -variation convergence too. Nesting is what permits the conditional-expectation martingale proof; without nesting one instead needs direct approximation estimates.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2007 iii Paper 33 1 b Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
The martingale convergence theorem in the form needed here states that a nonnegative supermartingale with uniformly bounded expectations converges almost surely to a finite integrable limit. Here for all , so it applies to . The ordinary Fatou lemma givesFor fixed , apply the Conditional Fatou lemma to the nonnegative variables , . The martingale property makes each equal to , henceThe inequality is simultaneous for all after removing a countable union of null sets. Equality of expectations in the limit has not been assumed; it can fail for a measure with a singular component.