Method of conditional probabilities 2026-10-06
For a random objective with an easily computable conditional expectation, reveal one random choice at a time and choose an outcome whose conditional expected objective is at least the current value. Such an outcome exists because the current value is an average of the child values. When all choices are fixed, the actual objective is at least the initial expectation. Biased as well as fair choices work. Efficient expectation updates make the resulting deterministic procedure a polynomial-time algorithm.