Probabilistic program 2026-10-24
A probabilistic program maps elementary random choices to outputs and observation weights. Its mathematical meaning can be specified by the pushforward measure on outputs, normalized after conditioning when the observation has finite positive mass. Different random-choice spaces can implement the same output law.
If has Poincaré constant and is -Lipschitz, then the pushforward measure has Poincaré constant at most . Apply the original inequality to and use the chain rule.
An orthogonally invariant random vector has a probability measure determined by its radial pushforward measure. Here is normalized surface measure on a sphere, and the formula holds for bounded measurable and for nonnegative measurable . It includes an atom of a measure at zero: the inner integral there is simply .
To prove the formula first for continuous bounded , average over normalized Haar measure of the compact orthogonal group. Right invariance makes this average depend only on ; averaging also over surface measure on a sphere identifies it with the spherical average. Invariance of and Fubini's theorem then give the identity. Uniqueness of finite Borel measures and measurable approximation extend it to the stated classes of . No extra sphere-area factor belongs in an average against normalized surface measure on a sphere.
Random element Created 2026-10-14 Updated 2026-10-14
A random element is a measurable function from a probability space to a measurable space . Its law is the pushforward measure for . Real-valued random variables and vector-valued random variables are examples; a stochastic sample path can also be a random element when its path-space sigma-algebra is specified. For a Polish space , the usual choice is its Borel sigma-algebra. A large deviation principle concerns the laws of a family of such random elements.
Random variable Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-10-14
A real-valued random variable is a measurable function from a probability space to the real numbers with their Borel sigma-algebra. More general targets give random elements. For every Borel set , measurability ensures that is an event, so the question "does the observed value lie in ?" has a defined probability.
The function is fixed; its input outcome is uncertain. This separates what we measure from how the uncertainty is modeled. A probability distribution is the resulting pushforward measure, . A cumulative distribution function, probability mass function, or probability density function describes that measure in an appropriate setting. The random variable and its probability distribution are different objects: the former also retains its relationship to other measurements on the same sample space.
For two independent uniform dice, let record their results and define and . The 36 ordered pairs are equally likely, but the resulting probability mass functions differ:
For the sum, count the diagonal of the outcome grid having total . For the maximum, subtract the pairs with both results below from the pairs with both results at most . These examples show how a deterministic function transforms a simple input probability distribution into a nonuniform output one.
Figure 1.
Different random variables on the same equally likely dice outcome space
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The corresponding expected values are and . The first follows immediately from linearity of expectation; the second follows from . Neither number must be an attainable result. An expected value describes an average under the probability measure, not a prediction that the next observation will equal it.
The distinction between a random variable and its probability distribution matters for dependence. and have the same discrete uniform distribution and are independent random variables. and a second copy of also have that same marginal probability distribution, but they always agree. Their joint probability distribution is concentrated on the diagonal; the marginals alone cannot say which relationship holds. This is why a model for several measurements must specify their joint law or an appropriate independence assumption.
Indicator random variables turn events into numbers: equals one on and zero elsewhere, and . This connects event counting with expected value and variance, and lets tools for random variables answer questions about probabilities. More complicated functions of observations can describe totals, waiting times, or estimation errors using the same framework.
Retained compound Poisson aggregate Created 2026-10-07 Updated 2026-10-14
Applying a measurable per-claim retention to independent claim sizes preserves the compound Poisson distribution form. The transformed severity is the pushforward measure of the original severity law. With count parameter , the retained aggregate has expected value and variance . Zero retained marks may be removed by Poisson thinning.