Accelerated life family 2026-10-07
An accelerated life family consists of survival distributions related by positive time scaling: has the distribution of . Therefore the survivor function is and, for densities, the hazard function is . This need not be a constant hazard ratio.
Suppose an unobserved class has probabilities and , with hazard functions and , and set , . For an independently right-censored observation , its survival-parameter likelihood contribution is
This sums the two class-specific likelihoods before taking a logarithm. All hazards must be nonnegative. A common parameter-free censoring mechanism factors out; class-specific censoring instead alters the mixture weights and cannot silently be discarded.
Administrative censoring with uniform entry Created 2026-10-06 Updated 2026-10-14
If entry is uniform on calendar interval and follow-up stops at , the censoring duration is uniform on . Its hazard function diverges at the longest possible follow-up. It is independent censoring when entry date is independent of prognosis after the required conditioning.
In a proportional hazards model , the baseline survival function is , corresponding to the reference covariate vector . Integrating the hazard function gives . Estimated hazard ratios alone therefore do not determine absolute survival probabilities: the baseline hazard or baseline survival function must also be estimated.
Compensator of a counting process Created 2026-10-05 Updated 2026-10-06
The compensator of a counting process is a predictable increasing process such that is a local martingale. For an observed event process with at-risk process and hazard function , it is under independent censoring. It is cumulative intensity, rather than an event probability.
A predictable intensity is the derivative of an absolutely continuous compensator of a counting process: is a local martingale. It represents the conditional event rate given the immediately preceding history. In survival analysis the individual intensity is an at-risk indicator multiplied by its hazard function.
Cumulative hazard function Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-10-14
Suppose has an absolutely continuous probability distribution, with survival function . On an interval where , its cumulative hazard is
Here is the hazard function; its integral is dimensionless because the units of rate and time cancel. The identity follows by integrating the derivative of , so mere continuity of the survival function is not enough: the absolute continuity assumption supplies a probability density function. If reaches zero, interpret as . The normalization also matters; an initial probability mass at zero would require an initial term .
Accumulating hazard functions adds on the scale and multiplies survival factors on the scale. For and ,
For instance, a cumulative hazard increment of gives event probability , rather than a probability of . With per year, and . With the increasing hazard function per year when is expressed in years, , so gives . Its coefficient has units of inverse years squared.
Figure 1.
Constant and increasing hazard functions, their cumulative hazards, and their survival functions
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The constant hazard function produces an exponential distribution; the increasing example is a Weibull distribution. Their survival functions both decrease, although one hazard function stays constant and the other increases. At year ten both have and despite different earlier histories. The accumulation identity is described in Lu Tian's Stanford notes, Section 1.1.
For a discrete hazard at each possible event time , the exact counterpart is . Taking its negative logarithm sums , rather than . Therefore exponentiating a Nelson–Aalen estimator does not give exactly the Kaplan–Meier estimator; small-jump comparison of cumulative hazard estimators quantifies the difference.
Cure model 2026-10-14
A cure model mixes an individual class with identically zero hazard function and a susceptible class with survivor function . For , its representation as a proportional frailty model with is with probability and otherwise, with baseline hazard . The frailty law is a mixture of two Dirac measures, rather than an ordinary density. Its Laplace transform evaluated at gives the displayed survivor function. The limiting survival equals when ; otherwise the plateau also includes susceptible individuals who never experience the event.
Let the survival time have an exponential distribution with rate per year. Its hazard function is per year, its cumulative hazard is for in years, and its survival function is . For a subject still event-free after five years, the conditional probability of an occurrence within the next two years is
The original population's probability of an occurrence between those same endpoints is instead . Dividing by recovers the conditional answer. The memoryless property makes the two-year conditional answer independent of the preceding five years.
For just year, the exact conditional event probability is , close to the instantaneous approximation . For two years that approximation gives , whereas the exact answer is about . At the single exact time five, the event probability is zero. These are three different quantities: an instantaneous hazard function with inverse-time units, a short-interval approximation, and an exact finite-interval probability.
Let a frailty random variable have a gamma distribution with mean one and variance . Its shape and rate are both . For conditional hazard function , , averaging the conditional survivor function gives . Differentiating its logarithm yields the population hazard function and hence the displayed hazard ratio. Writing gives . Therefore the population hazard ratio moves monotonically from towards one as exposure increases, even though the individual conditional hazard ratio remains . The limit one requires for fixed positive , or for fixed positive ; it is not a consequence of elapsed time alone. This is survival selection through preferential removal of larger frailties.
Gompertz distribution Created 2026-10-05 Updated 2026-10-06
A positive, exponentially increasing hazard function gives the survivor function
Its mean is , where is the exponential integral. Unlike the exponential distribution, its future mean waiting time is not the reciprocal of its current hazard function.
Gumbel auxiliary function 2026-10-05
A positive Gumbel auxiliary function makes as approaches the right endpoint of a distribution, for every real . Under the Von Mises conditions for extreme values, the reciprocal hazard function is a valid choice.
For a finite mixture with positive weights and rates , the survivor function is and the hazard function is the surviving-population mean of the component rates. Write . Differentiation gives and therefore . The hazard is decreasing, strictly so when distinct rates have positive weights. For finitely many rates it tends to the smallest rate with positive weight. This is survival selection even though each individual component has a constant hazard.